Trading the SPX

[kriesau]

Out at 11432. The advancing issues are still trumping the declining issues so the selling appears narrow...so far and the pattern is a GSGP and looks corrective of the opening upmove.

I'm cautiously looking for a new high of circa 11570 - 600 on the Dow before a major decline sets in very soon. Tomorrows non farm payroll could be a catalyst to push this up to a yearly high or it could mark a current top and trigger a sell off. NDX has been very weak over the past few days and could be the lead horse here.

Have a small, speculative stop buy order at 11470 on the May contract to scoop any sharp move up and already have a stop short in place at 10350 if it goes the other way. Will move this up if we break above 11500. Looking to short the SPX if and when we break 1300 on the cash.

Whats your take on market direction this month ?

 

[smbtnt]

Looking for a reversal off 480

 

[Racer]

Joules I am not as eloquent as you but I should also like to add that mr marcus is one of the very few individuals on this board, and in life in general, that deserves great respect.
He has a great insight and I have been very privileged that he has shown me a tiny part of that great wisdom.

 

[ajaskey]

Rectangle of the Range

For your amusment.

 

[roguetrader]

The bears still have to prove the case with another set dowward. .

Respect Joules, that's why you are one of the few posters whose contributions can be taken so seriously. Rational and untaintaed by emotion. Dailies look horrible, a signpost to the "end of the world" The weeklies imho soften the picture a little, so whilst not ignoring or trivialising the selloff, help to stem the bearish emotion a little. Could get a token bounce today with options expiry, would be looking for the bulls to tell me what's really on their mind around 1250 (1247 actually catches my eye)

 

[houdani]

joules,nice chart and count looks good as is.i have 1253 and if broken 1246 as an extreme target before a rather sizeable bounce with 1288 min for me. obviously with option expiry today you cant rule out any shennanigans to the contrary.

 

[ajaskey]

joules,nice chart and count looks good as is.i have 1253 and if broken 1246 as an extreme target before a rather sizeable bounce with 1288 min for me. obviously with option expiry today you cant rule out any shennanigans to the contrary.

SPX 1255 is 180 degrees down from the recent high. Around 1240 is 90 degrees down from 4 cycles up from 768. It is also 270 degrees up from 1136 and 180 degrees up form 1168 and 1 cycle plus 45 degrees down from the recent high. I like around SPX 1240.

 

[ajaskey]

30 day cycle

This should be a down 30day into mid-June -- below 1290.

 

[Bez]

:?:

 

[ajaskey]

Bez,

Or, we could say that the previous 1-2-3-4-5 ended in March 2005 - followed by a bullish a-b-c correction with higher highs and low. This would mean that your wave (3) is actually wave (1). For your consideration...

 

[ajaskey]

Turning points?

 

[BuckRogers]

hi all - i have just returned from the 25th century and i know that spx can go to 1300-1305 b4 a further failure

 

[ajaskey]

SPX Analysis

This is just a guess. If it plays out this way then I will have high confidence in the upmove on June 23rd. If not, you gets what you pays for...

From the top on 5/8 we went down 81 points to 1245 - interesting that 81 is 9x9. We hit 30 days on June 7th which is two weeks away. Possible slow top into the 7th and then down hard into June 22 which is 45 days from the top (zone of death). Half of the retrace is 1286 which we may hit on the 7th after a week and a half of pissing around. If I were to short the SPX/SPY I'd do it at 1286.

Intermediate term: June 10th is 240 days from 1168 (2x90 day cycle plus 60). This essentially matches up with June 7th in the short term. Halfway from the 1168 move to 1327 is 1247 which is where we recently bounced from. I am guessing this level gets taken out - but my guess is in two weeks. If we start down hard this week then we may hit the larger bottom on June 7-10. The last significant correction was 30 days - so why can't this one be 30 days.

I like approximately 1205 for a bottom. This is a six-eights retrace and, more importantly, 90 degrees up from 1168 (which was 90 degrees up from 1136). The 1060, 1136, and 1168 bottoms have all vibrated off a 90 degree point from the bear market bottom of 768. Also, 81 points down from the 1286 mid-point of the recent correction is 1205.

 

[erierambler]

Anything other than this will support a simple large zigzag alternative.

Hi Julian,
Quite possible for a temporary double bottom???

erie

 

[erierambler]

I am inclined to side with much more downside. the Decling issues trouncing the Advancing issues on the Big Board tend to favour more downside activity.

Cheers. Julian.

Thanks for responding Julian. I agree with the trouncing, but that may be due to more participation from the crowd. I don't watch the other indicies as the Dax, etc, but more the Dow, Transports, SPX, Comp, and NYSE. There seems to be support in this area as in the movement of the last two days ( a bounce, then a higher high ). This is also where new lows have hit an extreme and are now lessoning with a spurt of some new highs coming in. Will be interesting in the next few days. And Cheers to you as well.......

erie

 

[ajaskey]

1237-1240 was a squareout on a 90 degree angle with 768, 1060, 1136, and 1168.

 

[ajaskey]

SPX1220 was 270 degrees from the 1327 top. My hope is for weakness on Monday-Wedneday to give the correction around 45 days. I may not get that.

 

[ajaskey]

Two possibilites I see now. One is a big move to new highs after 45 days from the top. The other is weakness and a new low to 1205 which will give three thrusts down and squareout on vibrations from 768, 1061, 1136, and 1168. Again, I expect new highs from this setup too. Watch the 60 day move from the top on July 14th if this scenarios plays out. The next few days should tip the market's hand.

 

[jm99]

looks like the 50 will cross down thru 200 next week (daily sma's), not a good sign for bulls.

nq's already crossed.....cash markets lagging

 

[ajaskey]

looks like the 50 will cross down thru 200 next week (daily sma's), not a good sign for bulls.

nq's already crossed.....cash markets lagging

I'm having a hard time understanding your post. Any time the 50 got close to the 200 since 2004, it was a wonderful time for the bulls.