Trading the SPX

[roguetrader]

have missed a chance to go long ever since last thursday. didnt get a decent breakout during normal market hours.. everything has been gap and run pretty much since then. bah humbug.

Would there be justification for a modification to your entry criteria, or is this a rare event outweighed by the risks with a change to entry.

 

[Racer]

8:29am 07/14/05 U.S. JUNE CPI ENERGY PRICES FALL 0.5%

Hmm and oil went up to record highs?? I wish energy prices would fall here when oil goes up!

 

[FetteredChinos]

Would there be justification for a modification to your entry criteria, or is this a rare event outweighed by the risks with a change to entry.

well, by the time i had a proper signal, the dow was in the upper 400s i believe.. and with a target of merely 200-300 points, and considerable downside risk, i didnt see it as a valid trade..

you win some, you lose a lot less

 

[Racer]

This doesn't look very bullish today does it? I would have thought it would have been well over 1225 by now instead of just up 2.95?

 

[roguetrader]

Shaping up for a bit of a gap, I wonder will that be served with "go" or "crap"

Well "go" wasn't the side order with that gap, hadn't considered "gap and drift"

 

[frugi]

Negative divergences on TRIN ... doesn't look too bullish to me, esp. when taken with Joules's A/D figs.

 

[Racer]

15% capital ss the SPX at 1227...

......in through the nose, out through the mouth.......

Good luck there Joules I'm on your side!

edit... look at that, as soon as I post it bounces...

 

[Racer]

LUV has been downgraded after results today

 

[Racer]

VIX hit new nine year low at open today

 

[Racer]

Luv is something one should never downgrade ya know !

Yes true!

But going back to LUV that is a strange epic for a company called Soutwest Airlines! No doubt from some alteration in the past like MO and Altria!

 

[roguetrader]

Looks like they may get those 4 year highs today

 

[User]

Yes, VIX was an interesting low from a technical stand-point as it has displayed so many contrarian hall-marks of a low.

VIX was worth noting today as it made new lows.

However I believe we will be topping out from now......could last another month though.....

One thing I do believe firmly though.......that is that we've seen a top in March that is here to stay. It won't be taken out. 11,000 isn't going to occur. 10650 on the Dow is major short term stuff.

We've seen many upside breakout fakeouts this year. That is dangerous. I think this time around the markets will trap nearly everyone into Longs before heading lower. Its the same every time. This time doesn't seem any different. We're approaching topping zone........We could go higher but thats just GOOD chances to short. Levels that may never be seen again. Not in the next 2 - 5 years anyway.

 

[roguetrader]

Well there you go 4 year closing high on SPX, and a big shooting star odd sort of a day. Internals fell off all day diverging from the market and dragged it south 20% increase in Nasdaq volume and a 15% increase in NYSE. I wonder where all that went?

 

[Racer]

Well there you go 4 year closing high on SPX, and a big shooting star odd sort of a day. Internals fell off all day diverging from the market and dragged it south 20% increase in Nasdaq volume and a 15% increase in NYSE. I wonder where all that went?

Not the sort of chart pattern I would like if I wanted to go long!

 

[roguetrader]

Not the sort of chart pattern I would like if I wanted to go long!

Agree totaly there Racer, really odd day advance / decline was negative from about 5pm UK time, seemed to be a rotation out of small caps into large cap as the INDU held up well and the OEX faired better relatively than the SPX, also the Russel small cap and S&P mid cap indices were negative on the day. Will be interesting to watch over the next couple of days.

 

[Racer]

I think the indices to watch are especially the CAC and DAX and FTSE 250 (MCX) they look like bearish rising wedges to me and actions today were similar to the S&P (apart from the MCX which stayed negative)
Also FTSE 100.
After comments today that EU inflation if of increased concern, I cannot see how the US will get away without the same!
Also Joules' post about the CEOs confidence decreasing is also worthy of note!
And that VIX hitting 9 year low at open..........

 

[Racer]

See chart of CAC for example

 

[Racer]

A word of warning: I would not go short the Euro bourses based on the action or trending of the US

I have made a clear case for (my local JO) the Aussie 200 and how it is not, contrary to popluar myth, tracking the US. The XJO is in a bull market wheresas the US is in a counter-trend bounce ergo one cannot, even on a purely technical basis, be correlative.

I think the same applies recently for the DAX and the FTSE.
.

I agree that the EU/UK has diverged from the US recently, but usually it only does this for a while before being brought back in line by the US. They get out of step at times.
A lot of EU moving up recently has been to do with the sudden decrease in the strength of the euro and also possibility of interest rate cut. There is a lot of reliance on exports especially in Germany, as far as I am aware.
The euro is still weak compared to the dollar but there is now a problem with inflation as commented on by the ECBs chief economist.
Unemployment and growth is very poor in EU land and Switzerland growth was cut still further recently
In the UK there is a housing bubble and consumer slowing.
The FTSE 250 went down yesterday because of profit warnings from builders (and MCX is down again today)
I cannot comment on the Australian market really as I haven't been following it that much, but it seems to be slowing down and forming a top? I dunno. but yes it certainly looks to have been in a very bullish uptrend until now!

 

[Racer]

Very odd spike up on the DAX just then, FTSE was also affected but not so much

 

[Racer]

EU and UK not running together today
FTSE100 down 19
FTSE 250 down 30
CAC up 3
DAX up 23