Trading the SPX

i noticed that too over the weekend, Racer, on that ever reliable medium, Teletext.

i cant believe that a number pretty far below expectations, and confirming the downward trend is seen as good news! i believe the phrase is bonkers..


and the Dow is still not letting me get on board for a long..

am waiting for a breakout of the previous day's high in normal market hours, but the last few days have been gapping above it...

could be a Williams' Oops setup though one of these days....
 
The jobs number everybody is talking about, rightly or wrongly, is the % employment rate which is at a four year low of 5%.

Essentially it's the age old analyst game. Analysts analyse and provide reasons for things that are easy and convenient for the public to relate to. So on any given day, if the market goes up strongly they will look for any news that can be construed as positive in any way and attribute it as the reason for the gain. Of course had the market gone down on that day theywould simply have looked for all news that could be construed as a negative and attributed that as the reason for the fall.
The more interesting thing with a view to the underlying strength of sentiment is what the market is willing to ingnore in order to move in its chosen direction.
 
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Yes RT... I agree with the bit about looking for convenient news!

Crowd behaviour and which lot are stronger at the time. Bulls are blind to bad news and bears are blind to good news
 
FTSE 100 has been coming back from highs today because of oils

Energy makes up about 9% of S&P (which has been a very good sector up to now) so if oil goes down then same could happen to S&P?
 
RICHMOND, July 11 (Reuters) - Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker said on Monday it was too soon to say when the U.S. central bank would halt a year-long campaign of interest-rate rises and indicated more increases were likely.

"I think it is still too early to be foreseeing a pause," Lacker told reporters after speaking to a community development event at the Richmond Fed. "It's going to be data-driven and depend on how things unfold."

Lacker said that he believed the U.S. economy was on a solid growth path and that inflation expectations were well-contained. He declined to put a timeframe on when that view might change but signaled more rises were probable.

"Following through is probably the order of the day," he said

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Richmond must be low on the league table of Federal Reserve Banks - these comments have had little impact.
 
Record high oil prices, interest rates still going up, jobs numbers (some of them!) not very good...several economic reports not good at all.

Quick buy shares before the P/E is still above long term historical average goes even higher than that.

Oh and dollar has been going up, so that will make the outlook for US earnings go... up?

Better buy shares before the P/E goes even higher then....

UK figures today, highest input prices rise for 20 years, they aren't able to pass it on...hmm, better buy even more shares .... ?
 
Wow, missed the morning session, looks like it's been eventful, trying to catch up on news at the moment, is there any perticular driver to this mornings move or just good old fashioned va va voom
 
VIX at 9 year low, so no fear going into earnings season, hmm.........
 
Internals very bullish on both markets, big increase in total volume on the Nasdaq, slight increase on NYSE.
 
Good luck there Joules.
Saw some comments:
S&P going up cos oil going down, energy sector going up cos they think earnings going to go up and that sector will be good.
Um, I don't get that somehow? :rolleyes:
 
"Eye of newt, and toe of frog,
Wool of bat, and tongue of dog,
Adder's fork, and blind-worm's sting,
Lizard's leg, and howlet's wing,--
For a charm of powerful trouble,
Like a hell-broth boil and bubble."
Macbeth (IV, i, 14-15)
 
Acording to my trading system DOW,S&P,DAX,CAC & FTSE are in buy mode, the most overbought right now looks footsie & CAC40 and as of now only a close under 5150 will make me close my longs on shares and on the index itself.
 
Joules MM1 said:
RT any back-off in the numbers ?
Click to expand...
Sorry Joules didn't see that, you'll probably know this by now but fwiw, advance / decline backed off slightly between 12 and 2pm EST but of no real significance, volume breadth held steady and then began to push higher. One interesting point was that total market volume decreased with the pull-back.
 
oil up to $60.60. It will not bring this market down with these high levels of complacency out there. We will just have to wait until there is another catalyst. CPI could do the trick. Even these markets can not ignore inflation for ever. I reckon the 10 year has topped out and so with higher yields, a fed motoring on,slower paced earnings growth and a deccelerating economy... The bungee jump down will be more intense. The flip side for me is being short is not comfortable at the mo. I would like to see 540 hold though to check the momentum.
 
20% ish decline in Nasdaq total volume from yesterday, NYSE volume holding steady with yesterdays pace. Market internals mixed, more neutral than anything on the NYSE, and slightly bearish on the Nasdaq heading into lunch.
 
It decided that it was strong enough after all!
Some resistance areas here now though (1225), so will it keep the gains till close?
Also Nas resistance at 2150
Dow at 10530
 
If I just may add,

My activity;

I was short the last time the Dow was at these levels and I accumulated a massive stake by the time the DOW had reached 10600+ area. (Live trade that was posted on here with a 200 point stop loss).

I then cashed out near the lows and then later I decided to go long at the start of this month. I did however get cashed out as the futures spiked down due to the horrific events in London. I then turned long the same day and made back most of the loss. However my original stance on the market was to stay long for the first two weeks of July but I was put off by the attacks in London and decided to stay neutral. These are the original levels that were anticipated when I decided to go long. (But I stayed neutral for most of the rise).

I am now extremely sceptical once again as I normally am near market tops and do have a tendency to get the tops pretty spot on in relation to my trading timeframe.

Current scenario.....

I cannot see a 'significant' rise from here. Selling into strength should be theme to adapt to at this moment in time as these rises are not being supported by institutional activity. The 'big boys' are selling.

I cannot not see the Dow hitting new highs for the year.

Will we take out 10623? Not likely, however not impossible. 11,000. NO CHANCE.

Will we take out 1225 on the S&P. You would think so as we are only 3 points away. However we could see tremendous resistance short term.

Will the NASDAQ 100 hit new highs for the year. I don't think so.

One things for certain, I will be accumulating some HEAVY shorts with the S&P500 target of 1140 seeming HIGHLY likely before the end of this year. Will I panic if we head higher? No. I'll simply add more like mad. All the bulls are probably thinking I've lost the plot.... :devilish:

Let me put it into another BLUNT perspective: This is not the last chance to BUY! This is the LAST chance to SELL......We're not hitting all time highs we will definitely be hitting new lows for the year........The media will try to get the smallest of suckers into the market by making out the last chance to buy........This is not going to be pretty.

However we do have the chance of seeing sideways to higher action for the next month or so. Which would mean we could see current to higher levels until the middle of August. The markets are trying to suck dumb money in.....Wow we didn’t collapse at the attacks, wow we got strong bottoms at 10250, wow we've got an even better bottom at 10,000, wow we're definitely hitting 11,000 this time......Most are probably thinking this way now........a few more weeks of sucking in and then everything starts to tumble and oh my god we can't snap 10,000 can we?

I haven't been updating much as I simply do not get the time.
Obviously we'll see what happens. I don't want to say 'I told you so', but this is just an update on my stance.....

Oh and has anyway noted the 'little' problems like oil lately? Yes $60 and higher prices to come......Why is the market ignoring bad news.....?

Well this is the perfect attitude of market tops.....

What will happen when the market falls? Oil will probably fall as well.....What will most say? Why is oil down today and why is the market down today?

Well what I say is: Why is the market up today and Oil is also up today? Danger? Yes! We can't see it yet but major danger ahead! As I'm sure we'll all find out.........

Kind Regards
Thank you and Good Luck
User

Joules you've got the right idea as usual......keep up the good work..... :devilish:
 
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