Trading the SPX

[roguetrader]

SOX weak today, Nasdaq needs it to be strong to progress
SOX back below 200 week sma

 

[roguetrader]

Yup, NYSE volume lagging Wed and Thurs though so no real urgency to sell

 

[roguetrader]

SOX possible intraday DB here

 

[roguetrader]

Having a crack at filling todays gap as well

 

[roguetrader]

No they didn't not on either market. Volume breadth was positive though breifly on NYSE and for last hour on Nasdaq

 

[roguetrader]

Some good points made there Joules, from the perspective of trading all but longer term trades is it really that important to differentiate between what behaves like a trend and what is a trend. If we take this "run" for want of a better word, from the lows to the Apr current level, if I understand you correctly this would not fit your definition of a trend as amongst other things it is not supported by the internals, the fundamentals.
I see it as a bounce myself, a strong one but a bounce none the less. But if I am lulled into calling it a trend, what damage is that thinking likely to do to me as long as my trades are well managed?
Surely a trend in itself is only relative to the timeframe in which it exists?
Possibly I am misunderstanding, within the context of accepting that we are at the moment experiencing a bounce in a much larger downtrend, am I wrong in referring to the market as currently uptrending within that?

 

[JillyB]

......

To trade on purely one view is a risky practise. To trade purely fundamentally or technically or any specific way that excludes data, that may carry influence of some magnitude, however small, is to invite trouble in trade. .....

Yet there are some of us who do and trade very well on it.

Yes I take note of when the news on the market is due out, but I don't trade the news. I wait for the market to react and trade the breakout, retrace, bounce etc. This, in my opinion, is still trading one specific way - as I ignore what the news has actually said.

Having said this I really only trade intraday (after learning that this was the way that suited me best), so perhaps fundamental analysis is more appropriate for longer term trading and has a longer term effect on what the market is doing.

My basic rule (not to be broken) is.... trade what you see. TA works for me and I'm sticking with it.

 

[roguetrader]

As usual Joules your post makes perfect sense, and there is little to take exception with imho. I suppose what I mean by lulled is possibly to misuse the word "trend" as you pointed out in your definition. You will frequently hear people refer to "the short term trend" something I am guilty of myself. For example where we are right now is for me a short term up trend, at the same time, however, I view it as a bounce in a larger down trend. I think sometimes short term traders over fixate on the "real" or "true" trend of the market, this has been shown by many attempting to anticipate the end of the bounce and reversion to the underlying trend. Fixating on the true trend seems to lead to people underestimating what they are trading in a much shorter timeframe because they are always anticipating the return to the real trend.
It is as you say of benefit to realize where you are in relation to the real trend, but not at the expense of the move you are trading right now. I suppose what I like to do is regard all moves that look and act as a trend, to be a trend, but to be aware that just like all chart patterns there is a pecking order and the longer term has dominance. that way I don't make the mistake of disrespecting what is happening right now.

 

[FetteredChinos]

been a busy boy joules ?

try double fibs..

105 is nearly double 51

your 42 days is double 21

etc..

164 is also nearly a MM number (ask CJ if you want) 168 etc.


im not too au fait with harmonics, simply using natural splits when squaring price and time.. do you have any handy bedtime reading???

using the top of 24/3/00 of 1553 on the SP. Quartering that 1553 gives 388

leading to important cycle times of:-

24/03/2000
16/04/2001
09/05/2002
01/06/2003
24/06/2004
17/07/2005
09/08/2006
01/09/2007

should be tops according to standard theory, but they could also act as lows, depending on prior action.

fc

 

[roguetrader]

My basic rule (not to be broken) is.... trade what you see. TA works for me and I'm sticking with it.

It is a great rule, and one of the most popularly quoted these days, unfortunately many following it only see what they want to see, which completely negates the principle.

 

[JillyB]

It is a great rule, and one of the most popularly quoted these days, unfortunately many following it only see what they want to see, which completely negates the principle.

I agree, it is a rule that has to be adhered to without emotion. The sentiments of 'I hope the market will do this...' or 'I feel the market will do that....' cannot enter into the equation. You have to trade what is in front of you - doji at the top of an uptrend near a line of resistance, indicators looking very overbought - don't think I would be trading for the market to continue upward on that one.

I'm not saying that it works for every trade I place. Sometimes market news can turn things around when I didn't expect it, but on the whole I prefer trading with TA than with fundamentals.
(I think there's a poll going on this somewhere).

 

[roguetrader]

"Summertime, and the market is sleepy.............................................."

 

[roguetrader]

Messy day Joules, when I see my 3 min vol breadth chart looks like a 1 min Tick chart I sit back and let it tire itself out

 

[JillyB]

L DJIND at 10610 better break upwards out of this resistance

I take it, you're going to hold this position for a day or so - because all I can see today is a lot of indecision now. I can't see your break coming before close and 10610 is high to go in at when I (personally) see more lows (short term) before highs.

Trading was good early on, but I quit about 1.30pm their time and spent the rest of the day in the garden. No use trying to force a trade if it just isn't there.

 

[roguetrader]

Internals deteriorating badly, watching 1210 here

 

[roguetrader]

Looking for 1210 support to hold.
INDU support already broken.
Nasdaq again rejected at 2100.
Internals mixed Adv / Dec negative on both markets, Volume breadth Slightly negative on NYSE, and slightly positive on Nasdaq

 

[roguetrader]

Feds Greenspan and Treasury secretary Snow tetifying befor congress in a few minutes, may ad to the chop.

 

[roguetrader]

8:30am 06/24/05 U.S. MAY D
D.URABLES ORDERS GAIN LED BY AIRCRAFT ORDERS

I wonder will that require some revision in light of Boeings cancelled Canadian order

 

[Racer]

I wonder will that require some revision in light of Boeings cancelled Canadian order

The other figures not so hot

 

[Racer]

Moon still down your side eh Joules