Trading the SPX

[roguetrader]

I'd say anyone who bought the 2100 break out on the Naz wouldn't have had a good week.
Two down days in a row, two closes at the lows, not pretty.

 

[roguetrader]

Have a good weekend matey.

 

[JillyB]

Hi Joules

I totally agree with your analysis on the Dow. IMHO I would be looking for a bounce up on Mondays open with then a further downward trend to test the 10250 level. There is good support at this level with the longer term upward trend merging with the level of support around this area. I have attached a 4 hour chart of the Dow which shows the general trend lines for this.

The uptrend of the consolidation we were in until Thursday this week, was broken before the open that day. On the 1 hour chart the index broke through the trend and turned south. There was an indication that this would happen as since the 17 June it had started to move more horizontally on the 1 hour instead of maintaining the uptrend.

If 10250 does not act as support and the index does not bounce from here, then we could well be looking at a retest of 10000 and a very bearish summer.

That's all my thoughts for this morning.
Take care Julian - have a good weekend

 

[Racer]

They don't seem too bullish at the moment, winding up for a break though

 

[FetteredChinos]

morning Joules looks fairly low risk to me...

 

[Minder]

ss more FTSE at 5120 (2%)

Stop level ?

 

[roguetrader]

ss more FTSE at 5120 (2%)

Oi!!! are you tring to crash our index!!!

Go Joules go.

 

[josbarr]

US - FOMC Meeting Announcement (May, 2005) 2:15 PM May, 2005 Federal Funds Rate Target Level.

Based upon the June 28 market close, the CBOT 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract for the July 2005 expiration is currently pricing in a 100 percent probability that the FOMC will increase the target rate by at least 25 basis points from 3 percent to 3-1/4 percent at the FOMC meeting on June 30.

In addition, the CBOT 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract is pricing in a
4 percent probability of a further 25-basis point increase in the target rate to 3-1/2 percent (versus a 96 percent probability of just a 25-basis point rate increase).

 

[Racer]

That's probably the last we'll see of 1200 for some years to come .........

Joules you are such a masterful bear!

 

[Racer]

ss more FTSE at 5120 (2%)

Have joined you wih a Dec short, first FTSE one.. long or short for a long, long time!

 

[roguetrader]

Will get a clearer idea of where we are going next week, too much hi-jinks with the end of quarter squaring up going on, but for sure the charts have lost that pretty look if you're a bull, if you're a bear of course they're starting to look decidedly sexy

 

[FetteredChinos]

lol.. im gonna sue..

 

[FetteredChinos]

what the hal are you doing?

 

[JeanM]

Why the sudden mention of Isham and Kettering? I used to live between Isham and Orlingbury and now live at Broughton. Where about were you?

Jean

 

[Racer]

:?:

Michigan 96.0?

 

[Racer]

Interest rate won't go up if ISM below 50 (they assume)... it isn't but only just... so tick, tock, tick tock, wait for it to sink in.......

 

[Racer]

Err....we got yer good news and we got yer bad news....

That construction not so good if they are relying on that for GDP boost

 

[FetteredChinos]

dont worry joules, ive gone for my 10050 for the 3rd week running.. its gotta hit it eventually in the next week or so.. bloody thing lol

 

[Racer]

1207 up and 1188 down are key levels, so today could be interesting if we get a break on the downside at open which is where the futures are pointing

 

[cecja]

Got short the FTSE yesterday at 5176...juuust commin back...bit too keen to call that one...

Yep, got a get-out at 1208 at the 61.8% retrace (the SPX pinged off the 50% at 1204)

MM1, where is your stop for your short footsie.

I'm asking this because i see that you are trying to stop the bull market.

(by the way i'm long FTSE since 4870)