Nice trade!
Trading the E-mini
- Thread starter robster970
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Nice trade!
Broke all my own rules today and over-traded on top of it. Fell like such an idiot and a novice.
Oh well lesson learned, now watch tomorrow I will be so disciplined, I won't make a trade.
Just curious, how many trades do you guys make a day, from the sounds of it, it seems like you most of you are looking for one particular trade for the day.
Oh well lesson learned, now watch tomorrow I will be so disciplined, I won't make a trade.
Just curious, how many trades do you guys make a day, from the sounds of it, it seems like you most of you are looking for one particular trade for the day.
wackypete2
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Happens to everyone. For me, I usually take 1-4 trades a day, very short term. I don't trade ES much, mostly forex , but I'll be posting the ES trades here with some reasoning when I can.
Peter
robster970
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We all do it - providing you learn from it then you will eventually benefit from the experience.
Depends - between 0 and 3 per day dependent on the day really.
rathcoole_exile
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the last couple of days have been in a very tight range
but there were decent volumes, so it feels to me that the market is now coiled tight like a spring
i've rarely ever seen a week go by that doesn't at least touch one of the weekly pivots
so my expectation is that Thursday's market action must at least get above 55/57 before rolling over
target would be 32
or scenario 2 would be a brief dip to 48 followed by a take-off towards 70 if the upside continues
but there were decent volumes, so it feels to me that the market is now coiled tight like a spring
i've rarely ever seen a week go by that doesn't at least touch one of the weekly pivots
so my expectation is that Thursday's market action must at least get above 55/57 before rolling over
target would be 32
or scenario 2 would be a brief dip to 48 followed by a take-off towards 70 if the upside continues
robster970
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I agree - look at the volume traded in this range just on the Jun contract - it's high and tightly packed - like it's waiting for something to decide whether to continue up or start the unloading process.
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robster970
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Prep#1 - 14/3/13
So the shakeout I was looking for has not happened yet. I thought Tuesday was the first sign of it rolling over but it seems not. So bias is still long and the following levels are in play for me today. Especially interested to see how it is behaving near the high, especially if there is a build up of volume traded in and around this resistance level to indicate a desire to push higher as people want to trade at higher and higher prices.
Levels now on Jun '13 contract:
50/52 -> Resistance off the hourly.
37/38 -> Support off the hourly and quite a strong rejection
31/32 -> Support, tagged quite a few times and marks the boundary of the current value area and the upper limit of the thinly traded area
17/18 -> RbS, marks the lower boundary of the thinly traded area
12/13 -> Support and marks the next heavily traded value area
I'm still working on the premise that whilst above 31 it is still trying to grind higher but once this goes, I am biased short.
So the shakeout I was looking for has not happened yet. I thought Tuesday was the first sign of it rolling over but it seems not. So bias is still long and the following levels are in play for me today. Especially interested to see how it is behaving near the high, especially if there is a build up of volume traded in and around this resistance level to indicate a desire to push higher as people want to trade at higher and higher prices.
Levels now on Jun '13 contract:
50/52 -> Resistance off the hourly.
37/38 -> Support off the hourly and quite a strong rejection
31/32 -> Support, tagged quite a few times and marks the boundary of the current value area and the upper limit of the thinly traded area
17/18 -> RbS, marks the lower boundary of the thinly traded area
12/13 -> Support and marks the next heavily traded value area
I'm still working on the premise that whilst above 31 it is still trying to grind higher but once this goes, I am biased short.
robster970
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First trade scratched, saw some weakness, sellers dried up:
13:38:46 CME S 155425 ES Jun13
13:44:40 CME B 155425 ES Jun13
13:38:46 CME S 155425 ES Jun13
13:44:40 CME B 155425 ES Jun13
robster970
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Took another swipe at the short but it seemed to get a bit sticky around 54 so bailed with a couple of ticks. Target was 52.25 and it did eventually test that - should have held it really. Commissions covered and some beer money today.
14:05:24 CME S 155450 ES Jun13
14:13:39 CME B 155400 ES Jun13
14:05:24 CME S 155450 ES Jun13
14:13:39 CME B 155400 ES Jun13
robster970
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rathcoole_exile
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will short from 51.50 if touches again
t1 48
t2 32
t1 48
t2 32
DionysusToast
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I took a trade on STOXX today.
Then I went to the ATM to get some cash. Then I went to buy some fruit at the Supermarket.
When I got back, it had moved 2 ticks. As such, I have officially called off trading for today. If we get some action in Eurex tomorrow, I will consider trading ES, otherwise I'll leave it again.
Then I went to the ATM to get some cash. Then I went to buy some fruit at the Supermarket.
When I got back, it had moved 2 ticks. As such, I have officially called off trading for today. If we get some action in Eurex tomorrow, I will consider trading ES, otherwise I'll leave it again.
DionysusToast
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I would advise against such course of action on a day such as this.
If we get range extension down @ this point - it will more than likely go back up to da top.
I was looking at that very area as well, only to go long, was prior resistance, looking for it hold as support now, but I would want to see if it holds first.
rathcoole_exile
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damn ! now I really have to do it !!
'cos I always do the opposite of whatever I get told to do
:innocent:
DionysusToast
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Don't send your missus to my house for a boning...
robster970
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So today is a good example of how I misjudged the pace.
The 2nd trade I took where I went short for the test down to RbS at 51/52 was me not sensing that the stickiness would be overcome and the move down was less ferocious
Similarly the 3rd trade I took was me not adjusting to the slower pace of grinding up with a minimum target of the RTH-high and the possibility of a continued grind, probably trailing beneath the low of the hourly over the course of the day.
Pace adjustment for me is something I am still really getting to grips with.
The 2nd trade I took where I went short for the test down to RbS at 51/52 was me not sensing that the stickiness would be overcome and the move down was less ferocious
Similarly the 3rd trade I took was me not adjusting to the slower pace of grinding up with a minimum target of the RTH-high and the possibility of a continued grind, probably trailing beneath the low of the hourly over the course of the day.
Pace adjustment for me is something I am still really getting to grips with.
DionysusToast
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Rob
The market is stacked right now....
That's a lot of depth & the thing is - that's not even half the story - not only is a lot of this real, they are refreshing too....
I don't think I've ever seen the footprint do this:
Unusual indeed but as long as we have a lot of liquidity and they keep refreshing like this, we aren't going to see anything but more of the same. Today is an up day but the range is marked out pretty early on and we only have a 6 point range.
I don't see how price is going to develop much intraday until we get some imbalance.
Not wanting to teach Grandmother how to suck eggs but the depth is going to tell us when this current mode is over.
Trading down to the opposite end of the range is all you can do - not sure how your trade down to 51 was bad to be honest.
The market is stacked right now....
That's a lot of depth & the thing is - that's not even half the story - not only is a lot of this real, they are refreshing too....
I don't think I've ever seen the footprint do this:
Unusual indeed but as long as we have a lot of liquidity and they keep refreshing like this, we aren't going to see anything but more of the same. Today is an up day but the range is marked out pretty early on and we only have a 6 point range.
I don't see how price is going to develop much intraday until we get some imbalance.
Not wanting to teach Grandmother how to suck eggs but the depth is going to tell us when this current mode is over.
Trading down to the opposite end of the range is all you can do - not sure how your trade down to 51 was bad to be honest.
robster970
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I got out at 54 Pedro because it got sticky around there - could see it getting stacked and reloading. I had been in for 9mins and it didn't really make it further than 4 ticks, I could see buying pressure coming in too and thought 'enough'
If I had held for 30 secs longer when it broke 53.50 nicely I would have taken it all the way down to 51.75 :whistling
I just know it was a 'pace' issue for me....
DionysusToast
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I hear that Rob - I've done it a few times myself this week.
I don't think it is anything to do with pace at all. There is no pace now. There is nothing to judge.
If it can churn 10k contracts at a level - how can you really judge pace.
It's like watching a car go past you at 1mph and then later another going past you at 1.1mph and then someone asking you which was the fastest. No way to tell.
It ain't you Bert - it's this market. you got out @ POC - the stickiest area of the day. Nothing wrong with that.
I don't think it is anything to do with pace at all. There is no pace now. There is nothing to judge.
If it can churn 10k contracts at a level - how can you really judge pace.
It's like watching a car go past you at 1mph and then later another going past you at 1.1mph and then someone asking you which was the fastest. No way to tell.
It ain't you Bert - it's this market. you got out @ POC - the stickiest area of the day. Nothing wrong with that.
