Trading the E-mini
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robster970
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I was that tool - just got out with my shirt on....
robster970
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+1. Seems like an endless stream of small trades at the moment. The move I was looking for occurred afterwards and appears to be still in flight. My trade hypothesis was a rejection from the 57+ value area and a re-test around 50-51
http://trading-content.s3-website-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/ES-20130905.png
http://trading-content.s3-website-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/ES-20130905.png
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cablemonster
Funny I got 3.5 points on the way down... Short at 57.50, bailed at 54.00...It took 20 mins to develop and finally broke...I thought I was going to have to scratch the trade, as it almost came back to me, within 2 ticks, I was pissed, because I was in a 6 tick winner and watched it come back, so at that point, I decided I'll wait and see what happens, if it gets to my price I'll scratch, then boom straight down... it is good it happened so fast cause I probably would have gotten out too early.
So I'll call it day at this point.
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cablemonster
.I thought I was going to have to scratch the trade, as it almost came back to me, within 2 ticks, I was pissed, because I was in a 6 tick winner and watched it come back, so at that point, I decided I'll wait and see what happens, if it gets to my price I'll scratch, then boom straight down... it is good it happened so fast cause I probably would have gotten out too early.
what you have written above explains why price so often retraces to where the move started.:smart:
Shakone
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In what way?
numbertea
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Funny I got 3.5 points on the way down... Short at 57.50, bailed at 54.00...It took 20 mins to develop and finally broke...I thought I was going to have to scratch the trade, as it almost came back to me, within 2 ticks, I was pissed, because I was in a 6 tick winner and watched it come back, so at that point, I decided I'll wait and see what happens, if it gets to my price I'll scratch, then boom straight down... it is good it happened so fast cause I probably would have gotten out too early.
So I'll call it day at this point.
I had a signal strong on the move up but my down signal was too weak so I missed that big 5min bar down. After that I made a bad move but got it back. I'm only going to trade a big move if it comes today.
Cheers
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cablemonster
aha! let's say a bunch of you go to the cinema, you start to smell smoke, someone shouts fire and people run for the exit. Are you going to run for the exit or sit it out? what about if you are near the exit and the fire gets hotter are you still tempted to stay inside? humans are programmed not to die and not to take losses. check out some charts where moves obviously started eg. after data release, if price starts to revisit that area you can guess where it is heading as people sell down to +1 tick winners then scratches. After they are done then you can guess what happens next. :whistling
I shall humour a response even though you did insult the resident brummy attack dog and you seem a good egg.
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cablemonster
Shakone
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In the first post, it seemed you were talking about why price so often retraces to the area initiating the move, which is what I was asking about. In this post above it seems you're talking about what happens if it gets there. Two different things, no?
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cablemonster
nah the same. Wino wrote he was +6 ticks up and he felt pi55ed that it came back to a +2. Wino was in the cinema happy chumping on his popcorn, arm round the girlfirend +6 ticks up, then it was +5 ticks and he started to smell the smoke. he got uncomfortable (read emotional). When people get emotional they are easier to read.
Shakone
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nah the same. Wino wrote he was +6 ticks up and he felt pi55ed that it came back to a +2. Wino was in the cinema happy chumping on his popcorn, arm round the girlfirend +6 ticks up, then it was +5 ticks and he started to smell the smoke. he got uncomfortable (read emotional). When people get emotional they are easier to read.
So are you saying price so often retraces to the place where the move started in order to make those that were long (referring to your GBPUSD chart) from the start of that move emotional and easier to read? Just trying to clarify what exactly you're saying without cinemas and fires.
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cablemonster
no I am not saying that I am saying if you have a bunch of people long AND it goes their way and then price comes back on them they will start to get emotional. And by long I mean people who paid up to get in.
robster970
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nah the same. Wino wrote he was +6 ticks up and he felt pi55ed that it came back to a +2. Wino was in the cinema happy chumping on his popcorn, arm round the girlfirend +6 ticks up, then it was +5 ticks and he started to smell the smoke. he got uncomfortable (read emotional). When people get emotional they are easier to read.
ES rotation size on days like this is about 4 ticks. 6 ticks back to zilch would get me out.
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cablemonster
fo sho. the puke point for most short term guys on the ES is def around 4 ticks unless they are averaging (gambling), that tends to be where people just want out.
robster970
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It is for days like today where people are playing around S/R or LVN's, especially trading against the prevailing upwards trend my little Chippendale...
I don't like pre market, but if I had to guess, I would say based on price action that you should see a move to downside, especially if 62 holds, I would like to see it test it couple of times, before I would trade it....and there again I don't trade premarket, because I want to see what the market is going to do, and where the big players are putting their money. Unless some size stepped up to absorb any buying at the 62 level.
Not even sure it that helps....
