Trading systems

[fudgestain]

Also, I'd like to think that any system that worked .. why on earth would you bother selling it to the man in the street. ..

Exactly.

 

[JTrader]

Why on earth would ANYONE really sell a system that works? think about it , "system that works".

Personally, I am happy to trade a system that works - make money from trading it - and not sell it to other people.

There is the chance that if many people trade the same system - that over time, it will become less effective.

However, I simply like to make my life as simple and streamlined as possible and wish to juggle a minimum number of work related responsibilities.

Cheers

jtrader.

 

[Glenn]

Originally Posted by CityTrader
Also, I'd like to think that any system that worked .. why on earth would you bother selling it to the man in the street. ..
Exactly.

Exactly.

Well here's a thought for you.
If 95% of traders fail then what happens when one of them comes up with a system which 'works' but that person is no good as a trader ?
Given that 80% of trading is psychological, the overall statistics seem to make it very likely that the inventor of a good system would sell it and make money that way.
imho.
Glenn

 

[fudgestain]

Well here's a thought for you.
If 95% of traders fail then what happens when one of them comes up with a system which 'works' but that person is no good as a trader ?
Given that 80% of trading is psychological, the overall statistics seem to make it very likely that the inventor of a good system would sell it and make money that way.
imho.
Glenn

Well I have to disagree with you Glen, politely of course. Trading is not psychological at all other than removing any emotional bars you may have. It is about knowing thoroughly the market you trade in .. that is down to the data plus your research, study and then next your trading model.

Vitally important is your staking plan and how you build it. The market offers hugely more than the proceeds from selling any system. I know that from a City background in the futures business and investment banking. You have to remember that a specialist operation perhaps using a closely guarded formula can lift humongous amounts of money from a given market.

This is a forum for individual traders many or most without a relevant background. I would rather they know than not know even if that does no more than help them keep their money.

 

[Glenn]

Trading is not psychological at all other than removing any emotional bars you may have.

Hi Fudgestain
Well I haven't done a personal survey of traders - just quoting the stats which are frequently bandied about.
According to them, it's the emotional bars which constitute the 80% psychological component.
Fear, Greed, Anger, Joy, etc etc.

I understand what you are saying about the city, but aren't we addressing non-city individuals on this board ?
They are not part of a 'specialist operation perhaps using a closely guarded formula'.

I have no axe to grind - as I said, it was a thought.
Glenn

 

[jsd]

The market offers hugely more than the proceeds from selling any system.

It needs to, as it also carries "hugely" more risk assumed than that of "selling" a system. then again maybe it doesn't, whats the measure.....

Need to look at risk profile, whether corporates or individuals. Of course always will be deviants from the norms.

Then we always seem to end up in ,the need to measure to see "who is the most successful " mindset argue, argue...

Accounts give us Return on capital employed and trading adds Drawn Downs. We need then to look at objectives, Individuals or corporates and include that in any meaningful comparing of success. So in a sense we need to be Objective of the Subjective Objectives. I think that may help things become a little clearer.

Have they delivered on the Individual objectives ? if yes then both sets are successful . The thing is we still cant get passed , "my way is better ,best," hence continual arguments will prevail as long as the egos need to feel dominant and in control of others. We are still insecure in the main and fearful hence the need to surround ourselves and seek out like minded views of others that fit in with ourselves, to reassure us. We tend not to like people who dare to be of different or of open opinion, hence great conflict may arise between the the two.

human nature as it stands is still greedy,driven by fear , obsessed with over consumption of its needs in its desire to feed the wanting egos of the uncouncscious living or the living dead be they individuals or collective forms of " life jim but not as we know it".


Psychology important ? Why wouldn't someone sell a system?


JD.

 

[frugi]

Assuming they are honest and the system works, they simply might have insufficient capital with which to trade their system and wish to build up a pot by selling a few copies.

 

[Kenel]

Good or Bad

Hi Guys
I'm too close so need your thoughts. If you had developed a systen that produced the following would it be good or bad, based upon your experience of course.
FTSE Trades 48 months

Total Points Profit 3919
Total Points Loss 1904
Total Trades 31
Total Wins 23
Win % 74.19%
Max Win 258
Max Loss –300 = 5% of trade as stop loss
Average Win 70.39
Average Loss -238
Pts per Month 42
Max Drawdown 539
Max consecutive losing trades 2
Max consecutive winning trades 6

 

[JonnyT]

Personally I wouldn't trade it for several reasons:

1) The average loss is much bigger than the average win
2) 42 points per month is not enough gain given the drawdown.

JonnyT

 

[LION63]

Kenel,

I would not trade such a system due to the fact that it only provides a profit of 42 points per month. The flip side of the coin is that a profit is a profit and there are many traders out there that would kill for that. If you have a system that produces such returns, it would be suicidal to change it unless you find one that produces better results over a long period of time. Backtesting is no good so you can only compare as you go along.

 

[fudgestain]

.. Why wouldn't someone sell a system?
JD.

Lots of people do sell systems. Try some. Then you can learn about bleed instead of greed.

 

[jsd]

kenel the drawdown you hit with that is near 27% of net a bit toppy upto 25% is tolerable some say, but the lower the better maybe, thats the puzzle for people to explore, modern day alchemy, keeps your brain ticking, but again its down to individual risk tolerance, ive been working on dollar yen over 13 years data long and short side drawdowns at 10% both sides , still working on it averages 13/1500 pips a year long and short. but thats based on 13 years data.

you can get boggled and like you say too close and immersed sometimes to reason without bias maybe..

some advocate walking your system backward/forward over a data period, say 5 years, then walk it forward the next five, etc, depending on how much data you can access..
leave inputs the same etc, see if there is any significant difference in ratios that may warrant a rethink.. if you used money stops you may need to consider allowing for a range expansion over the years if testing the stock indexes spanning a decade or 2 .

Im far from expert but managed to locate supercharts EOD software which was misplaced in another lifetime, constantly questioning the markets based on past activity rings alarms for some, but the price bars represent human behaviour, and thats not likely to change for the next few hundred years anyhow

when ive finished mine i'll chuck it up for critique from the perhaps more knowledgeable to see weaknesses/ strengths, few weeks off yet though.. need recent data last 3 years back end of day, CME dollar/yen or 15 years of end of day for the same pair, need it ASCII .txt struggling to find it for supercharts since they stopped supporting it.. baahhh..

anyone know of a source ? not too concerned if its cme spot or elsewhere just struggling for EOD spot.. historical downloads. I realise its 24hr with the fx, the system im working on has a roomy stop pip wise but not constant. so i assume its doable regarding overnight price action around the world, london or new york close would be ok, maybe both.. ?? still searching for that info...


JD

 

[jsd]

hello fudge, hear what your saying, still see the price action as psychology though fudge, interesting stuff.. now whats that secret formula you metioned , how much for that system?

jd.

 

[Tuffty]

Kenel,

If I've interpreted your figures correctly my calculations show the system has a slightly negative expectancy (or mathematical outcome) i.e. it will over time loose you money.