Trading Journal [Mateus]

[Mateus]

05-oct-15 - crude oil

Oil price has been falling for over a year. First weekly chart shows price hitting lows of 2009. Second weekly is just zoomed in on the last year or so. There appears to be a wedge forming but on smaller timeframes it looks more like a range so I haven't drawn it on.

On the daily price has been in a range since the end of august. This range was traded twice before this year. As per blue box.

The hourly shows price behaviour around the support/resistance and mean of the range. I see a lot of spikes in the price throughout the range. I assume this is because of news reports on the plethora of political and commercial variables that have an effect on the price of oil.

 

[Mateus]

Just noticed this on the hourly. Price has been testing the support line from 2009 for a few days. That must be a price of interest, possibly to large traders.

 

[Mateus]

05-Oct-15 - Seadrill

Seadrill predictably affected by the downturn in the oil price.

Weekly shows the rate of reduction in price reducing i.e its not as steep. Price is trading well above the weekly mean in a channel.

Daily shows the channel in a little more detail. Channel is down. Price tests both upper and lower limits.

Hourly shows failure to reach a lower low in the middle of the box and then a successful attempt to make a lower low is made by reaching the mean. Price has since reversed and heading for upper limit of the channel.

 

[Mateus]

05-Oct-2015 National Oilwell Varco

National Oilwell Varco (NOV) also hit by low oil price.

Weekly has been down. Today's action lifted price above the weekly channel.

Daily - shows a large jump in price today. Price has also been in a range for little over a week.

Hourly shows the dynamics of the trading range on the daily. Opportunities for decent moves are visible. The sharp angle of accent of today's price may mean that this bullish move is not sustainable.

 

[Mateus]

05-Oct-15 - Transocean

Weekly - Price is trading just below the mean of the channel. Price may have hit support on the weekly.

Daily - Support is seen a little more clearly on the daily, the blue box. I'm not 100% certain it is support but it's clear there has been activity in this range.

60 min chart shows big swings but over a small price range so this may not be the best option..

 

[Mateus]

Please let me know your thoughts on these instruments and also how I have annotated them. It's not easy for me to see what I have done right or wrong.

Cheers

 

[dbphoenix]

Since SDRL stopped paying dividends, I wouldn't expect too much of it anytime soon.

You don't say what your objectives are, but unless you want to be cute and try to buy something nobody ever heard of in the hope that it will quintuple in value, I suggest you stick with the leaders. If you want to follow the money, that's where the money will be going.

If you don't know how to find the majors in each group -- development, exploration, transportation, etc -- let me know.

Db

 

[Mateus]

Thank you for the heads up on Seadrill I didn't know that was something to consider.

My objective is to trade and not make long term buy and hold investments but I can see now how my selections may suggest otherwise. My choices were based on what I know professionally from within the industry about these companies and what they do (Transocean and Seadrill are among the biggest offshore drilling contractors and National Oilwell Varco have unrivalled market share in drilling rig equipment) so I assumed that that's where a lot of money would be and to be honest they may turn out to be good long term investments but that is not really relevant.

I am happy to divert my attention elsewhere and would be grateful for some guidance into the process for identifying majors in each group as I do not know how to do that from the markets perspective.

Thanks

Since SDRL stopped paying dividends, I wouldn't expect too much of it anytime soon.

You don't say what your objectives are, but unless you want to be cute and try to buy something nobody ever heard of in the hope that it will quintuple in value, I suggest you stick with the leaders. If you want to follow the money, that's where the money will be going.

If you don't know how to find the majors in each group -- development, exploration, transportation, etc -- let me know.

Db

 

[dbphoenix]

Given the situation in O&G, any trading, unless one is trading for pennies, must involve at least a medium-term view. These stocks are not likely to lift themselves off the floor any time soon. There is of course CL.

As for examining the sectors, groups, and stocks, start here. Once you've selected a group, click Industry Analyzer, then sort the charts by Market Cap. This will give you the leaders.

As for the bottom fishing process, my book has an entire section devoted to this, so it's too much to copy and paste. But a Google search will also provide useful information (there will also be a lot of useless information, but that's the nature of internet searches).

 

[Mateus]

That looks really useful. I've had a quick look and already see some companies I am familiar with in the top 18 of their respective list for market cap.

Do you recommend a limit to the number of instruments to observe? I am thinking CL and up to three others?

Lunch break over now so I will revert back this evening.

Thanks

Given the situation in O&G, any trading, unless one is trading for pennies, must involve at least a medium-term view. These stocks are not likely to lift themselves off the floor any time soon. There is of course CL.

As for examining the sectors, groups, and stocks, start here. Once you've selected a group, click Industry Analyzer, then sort the charts by Market Cap. This will give you the leaders.

As for the bottom fishing process, my book has an entire section devoted to this, so it's too much to copy and paste. But a Google search will also provide useful information (there will also be a lot of useless information, but that's the nature of internet searches).

 

[Mateus]

06-Oct-2015

CL. Price has breached the long term SL on the weekly and daily chart.

Price is still within the range started in September. Price has broken two swing highs reached in early September. The next test will be the upper limit of the range at 49.29. I assume a breakout through the upper limit of the range would signal strength in the up-move and that price is more likely to continue moving upward.

If price reverses at or before 49.29 then it is still range bound and would assume heading for the mean at about 46.20.

 

[Mateus]

07-Oct-15

CL just broken through upper limit of the range at 49.29 overnight but is currently trading at this level. Don't think this qualifies as a proper breakout.

There was a test of the limit and fail overnight (0200 London time).Price then rose slowly to break the limit.

Will keep watching and draw a DL in if price continues to rise.

 

[Mateus]

So price has reversed and reentered the trading range. I assume this requires the trader to adjust the resistance line denoting the upper limit of the range so this is what I have done in the 2nd and 3rd charts. DL visible but was broken.

If 49.69 was the upper range limit AMT suggests price is heading for the mean so a short would be entered.

CL just broken through upper limit of the range at 49.29 overnight but is currently trading at this level. Don't think this qualifies as a proper breakout.

There was a test of the limit and fail overnight (0200 London time).Price then rose slowly to break the limit.

Will keep watching and draw a DL in if price continues to rise.

 

[Mateus]

Wedge forming. Hinge at 48.50.

*EDIT* Price made three attempts to breach 49.70 before retreating. Sellers couldn't find buyers at higher prices.

So price has reversed and reentered the trading range. I assume this requires the trader to adjust the resistance line denoting the upper limit of the range so this is what I have done in the 2nd and 3rd charts. DL visible but was broken.

If 49.69 was the upper range limit AMT suggests price is heading for the mean so a short would be entered.

 

[Mateus]

Price has fallen to the 50% mark of the uptrend. Does one wait to see if there is strength with the buyers or assume sellers are still in charge?

This price was also a previous swing high so might attract attention/interest.

 

[Mateus]

08-oct-2015

Price ranged overnight then broke out to test and breakthrough yesterdays swing high. Price is now at the upper limit of the daily range.

 

[Mateus]

09-Oct-15

Price just broken DL on 60min. Price at what may be resistance judging by long term daily chart view.

 

[Mateus]

DL was broken and price trending down. Price fell to and tested the 50% mark of the up-move from yesterday. Buyers seem to have strength at this level as price is rising again.

CL has large moves between 1300 and 1400 London time.
It also moves during the night between 0100 and 0400.

Price just broken DL on 60min. Price at what may be resistance judging by long term daily chart view.

 

[Mateus]

15-Oct-15

Daily and Hourly. Price back to the mean of the daily range started in Sept. On hourly Price browk out of a range to the bottom, possible continuation downwards.

 

[Mateus]

18-Oct-15 CL

Weekly, Daily, Hourly.

On Weekly the price closed above the long term SL.

Daily shows price has bounced off the mean of the recent range. Possibly heading toward the last swing high to try and test again.

Hourly shows possible continuation of bullish move upwards. New DL drawn after price reached higher high.