Here is the stock analyses part of the letter from last night. It is pretty thorough. If you have questions about his analysis ---just pick up the phone.
"Stock comments - Decent up day today when were set up decently for
something on downside. dip in crude prices helped stocks rally today
as rally started about time Crude hit 60.00 area (down about 90
points); however, when crude rallied some off lows then stock rally
ran out of steam. Tough to trade stocks when they are just following
another market, crude in this case, but this has been case off and on
for quite and while past many months and following crude has not
lasted for more than few days so cannot let crude dictate actions in
stocks. Technical picture in crude complex still quite positive and
so this remains potential negative for stocks, but SL's are high in
Crude and so could pause or dip little more here also. Unfortunately
this makes trading stocks much tougher at moment, and especially
since patterns are currently so mixed.
Put/call ratios surprising today since for first time in very
long time got bearish numbers. CBOE/total came in at .66 which is
nominally neutral but based on numbers have been seeing past few
months have to consider this at least a somewhat bearish number. In
Index Options did 66K more CALLS than Puts and this a very bearish
number regardless of recent numbers since only rarely have more Calls
than Puts traded on any day. VIX dropped some to 12.26 and so this a
little bullish since shows less fear of big downside risk. So
put/call ratios and VIX switched sides today with put/call going from
long period of extremely bullish numbers to quite bearish numbers and
VIX going to less bullish number. This an expiration week and
put/call indicators much less reliable during these weeks and so
these numbers even tougher to read than normal.
Bottom line - Just so mixed and so many conflicting
indications here, especially when add in potential impact of crude
oil price movement, feel sidelines best until get something clearer.
Sep Dow, S & P and NDX 100- Status - Bullish/Neutral. Observations -
Trends marginally to slightly up but ML's still slightly down so
market in crosscurrent modes. Action fairly positive though both on
decent up day but even more on lack of any downside pressure after
weak close on Friday. So tough call here since may have had its
chance for downside today and fact could not do anything on downside
an upside warning sign. The way the lines are set up here the longer
go sideways the more positive picture will become and so see sideways
here next day or so as more positive than negative. Have been trying
short side here for past several days but tough to still do this
after today, although moderate down (size of today's up or more)
tomorrow would put market right back on edge for potential good
downside move. However, when go against trend, even very slight ones
like have here, have to be much quicker to give up on any against
trend trades and so feel better to be safe and go to sidelines again.
If can close unchanged or higher tomorrow then odds will favor upside
enough to justify longs. ON very strict line pattern basis can make
very minor case to go long any here now and this OK, but picture
still quite mixed and unless up sharply tomorrow ML's will go below
zero and turn patterns right back to neutral. So, tough call here and
when this tough prefer to be safe on sidelines. Bottom line - Lines
say sidelines in all three and agree for time being, but can make
very marginal case to go long now and longer holds higher tomorrow
the better the case for this."
You can use the 3 lines for spreadbetting.
