The only news letter I receive is Mr Chick's. It is the only one I have ever payed for. I was on trading desks with thousands of dollars in Subscriptions. I find Chick's to be the best. Why? Because it is a teaching newsletter and subscribers can call him directly.
Here is the part of the newsletter I just received. I think you guys might like to read it. Hope you all are doing well.
Cheers
TGM
"INTELLIGENT FUTURES TRADING (as of close Mon, 8/15)
© 2005 Chick Goslin, (619) 294-3879,
[email protected]
www.intelligentfuturestrading.com
Concurrent markets - Long Euro (but weakening some now). Long all in
Crude complex. Long Gold. Short Silver. Short Bean Oil. Short Cotton.
Short Cocoa.
Markets close to becoming concurrent - Long Copper. Short Corn. Short
Beans and Meal. Long or short Wheat (either possible on just moderate
move up or down).
General comments - A number of years ago it was tax return season and
was headed to my accountant's office. Since his office was in same
building as a broker friend of mine I stopped in afterward to visit.
Mentioned had had a very good year and broker friend wanted to know
where had made most of the money. Could not really remember any
trades in particular, not unusual since I have hard time remembering
what did more than week or so ago, and so took out my stack of
monthly statements and started looking through them. Was surprised to
find that hardly had any trades that produced much more than $1,000
to $1,500 per contract profits, and many less. Overwhelming majority
of trades were around $1K profits (multiple contracts though), yet
ended up with seven figure profits for year.
Point is have always ended up doing much better when focus on
taking profits when they reach the $1,000 to $1,500 per contract
levels then when try to maximize profits. Now in some markets where
price moves consistently big and contract size big, like crude
complex these days, have to adjust this number up, but find using
area of 100 to 150 percent of margin profit works out very well. Many
times when do this price will keep moving after get out at this
profit level, but when hold onto a token number of contract to try to
maximize profits on those, am surprised by how many times will end up
getting out at same or worse profit than those where took profits in
area where lines and chart indicated was clearly "too soon" to do so
(yet were good, 100/150 %.
Have always felt that the so called market wisdom of "letting
your profits" run is not really very wise. Some traders can do this
and do it well, but I cannot, and invariably end up doing much better
on ultimate bottom line when force myself to take bulk of contracts
off when profits reach area of 100 to 150 percent of margin
regardless of how solid line patterns and charts happen to still be
at that time. As mention in book, find it a very big psychological
boost if take majority of positions off when profits hit this
100/150% of margin level since just really a help to book those
profits, and find it very big psychological blow when hold all
contracts for maximum profits (i.e., until line patterns clearly turn
in other direction) and market turns sharply and give back all or
almost all of formerly big profits. This such a tough game find it
really helps to take profits when good since pain of losing them so
much greater than pain of getting out too soon (leaving some profits
on table).
This method of using lines to tell you when odds clearly in your
favor (solid concurrent mode patterns) is so good at finding good
trading opportunities, that just do not have to worry that will miss
"the" big move as will have almost constant stream of good trading
opportunities can miss some really big moves and still do extremely
well for year, but feel have to take those profits when good or will
find psychological damage to confidence too much to do these good
trades in a decisive way (put them on when picture still little
fuzzy easier to do when have booked good profits on other trades).
Again as mention in books, only way to make money trading is to take
profits.
Stock comments - Decent up day today when were set up decently for
something on downside. dip in crude prices helped stocks rally today
as rally started about time Crude hit 60.00 area (down about 90
points); however, when crude rallied some off lows then stock rally
ran out of steam. Tough to trade stocks when they are just following
another market, crude in this case, but this has been case off and on
for quite and while past many months and following crude has not
lasted for more than few days so cannot let crude dictate actions in
stocks. Technical picture in crude complex still quite positive and
so this remains potential negative for stocks, but SL's are high in
Crude and so could pause or dip little more here also. Unfortunately
this makes trading stocks much tougher at moment, and especially
since patterns are currently so mixed.
Put/call ratios surprising today since for first time in very
long time got bearish numbers. CBOE/total came in at .66 which is
nominally neutral but based on numbers have been seeing past few
months have to consider this at least a somewhat bearish number. In
Index Options did 66K more CALLS than Puts and this a very bearish
number regardless of recent numbers since only rarely have more Calls
than Puts traded on any day. VIX dropped some to 12.26 and so this a
little bullish since shows less fear of big downside risk. So
put/call ratios and VIX switched sides today with put/call going from
long period of extremely bullish numbers to quite bearish numbers and
VIX going to less bullish number. This an expiration week and
put/call indicators much less reliable during these weeks and so
these numbers even tougher to read than normal.
Bottom line - Just so mixed and so many conflicting
indications here, especially when add in potential impact of crude
oil price movement, feel sidelines best until get something clearer."
