"Trading Day by Day" by Chick Goslin

[TGM]

hi,
just finished chick goslins first book. very interesting.

is chick goslin still active trading?
his web side seems not to be up to date!

is anyone here still using his newsletter? would like to ask him one-two questions.
but if he isn't active i won't bother him.

so anyone who has contact to him in this year?

thanks flex

I talk to him at least 3 times a week. Yes, he is as active as ever. Call the number on his website and he will pick up the phone. He does not make his living from the book.

 

[Pat494]

I have Trading Day By Day by Chick Goslin and will sell
Good condition £20 + post (UK only)
Pm me if you want it


book now sold

 

[FuturesTrader]

Forcasting the lines

This is my first append at T2W. I've been trading futures (Energies, Softs, Grains, Stock Indexes, Currencies) for only one year and what a roller coaster ride it has been! I did some stock investing/trading prior, but that was about it. I got in futures and won sick money because I was convinced oil price would go up from reading a lot about Peak Oil, then I lost all those profits, then I won them back, then I lost them all plus my life's savings mostly from betting big on Katrina & Rita hurricanes (insanity), and finally I won it back and a lot more (for now as it could change tomorrow) ONLY because the first thing I did back in April 2005 was buy several long-term (1.7 - 2.7 year) Crude Oil, Gold, and Silver "options on futures". In straight futures I'm a huge loser... and just another one of the 85 - 90% newbie futures loser statistics funding the more savvy players. I haven't bought any options since June 2005 and man do I kick myself for letting my broker talk me into daytrading and not having stuck to my original plan to load up on a lot more on those options, but even those options were bad losers for a few months and that didn't exactly make me want to buy more. I definitely got sucked in and hooked on straight futures... it is a money/mind game like none other! I've basically gone it alone with just a few books and my broker because I don't personally know anyone else who trades futures. I've learned the HARD way about the common mistakes of what NOT TO DO and I've made them all multiple times. At least one good thing is by so doing I gained invaluable trading experience I won't soon forget. If I had hit the jackpot even bigger on oil/precious metals options I'm fairly certain that I still would have eventually lost it all since that is what happens to most everybody until they learn the hard way (although I would be pretty darn happy at the moment). The highly leveraged futures market is like financial crack to an unsuspecting 16 year old and it is VERY DIFFICULT for it not to strongly emotionally influence your decisions. Fortunately, I received an advertisement in the mail for Chick's TDBD book and bought it based on that and Amazon reviews. It is the best of my five trading books on futures/TA. I've read all of it except for the large charts analysis/commentary section which I'm still working through. I definitely recommend the book highly and I've subscribed to Chick's newsletter. I've learned so many of the right things to do from Chick's book. This is an unbelievable opportunity for us to learn from an accomplished seasoned veterin trader who is able and willing to teach us the details of his trading methodology!! As such, Chick is truely a rare gem and a huge individual trader advocatel! Neither he nor his methods are perfect, but who's are? Now, on to my question: I get FutureSource Real-time quotes through my broker, but I have to manually apply all my custom chart settings every time I open a new chart (I can't save the settings through the web account they give me the password to). I'm looking to try TradeStation, MetaStock, FutureSource, etc. software to make it easier and less tedious to follow a bunch of markets. What I would also like to do is project out the 49-day SMA the next 10 days into the future (covers margin of error window) by dropping off days 40-49 and assuming the next ten day's closing price will be the same as the latest day (day 1). I would like to do analogous projections for the ML & SL. Does anyone know of a software package that is capable of programming in this type of projection? I've read this whole thread now and thank you all for your many contributions... especially TGM.
FuturesTrader

 

[TGM]

FuturesTrader,

You are on the right path. I do not have any indicators that project into the future like SMR's software. I am guessing that something like it could be programmed into Tradestation or other software.

I have used every data feed out there. I have the indicators for CQG, Tradestation etc. I am now using Ensign with an IB feed. I use IB for one of my brokers. Ensign costs 40 (with free delayed intraday chart updates like the grains and softs). IB is free with 30 dollars commission. For Pit quotes with IB you have to pay extra depending on which exchanges you want.

There are many good options for data and there are many good options. Just depends on what you want or need.

 

[FuturesTrader]

Trading Software

TGM,
Thank you kindly for the reply. Thank you for all your hard-learned insights you have shared on this thread previously as well. When I say I want to program in projections for the ML & SL as described in my previous append, I mean the equivalent 3/10-16 Simple MACD -- not the exact SMR lines (unless SMR beta software can do that?). Your sense that TradeStation can do projections is helpful. I talked to a TradeStation sales rep last week and described to him what I wanted to do. He said there were some type of projections in TradeStation already and he thought what I wanted to do could be programmed, but I was skeptical because he was a salesman and I don't know how technical he really is.
My goal is basically to be primarily a short-term trend-following position trader (i.e. swing trader). That is one of the cool things about Chick and his book -- he teaches exactly what I've wanted to be successful at! I plan on appying Chick's methods but also will utilize with-the-trend application of Japanese Candlesticks and maybe 10 - 15% fundamentals consideration towards "anticipation" decisions. Japanese Candlesticks in particular have contributed to some long-running losing streaks for me since they would entice me to make top/bottom-picking against-the-trend trades that I would hesitate to exit from while the exit was good. I've been beat up quite enough by those and I am ready to surrender to the Second Natural Law of "Continuation is More Likely than Change".
With that said, my "saved setting charts with projections" datafeed needs are primarily daily charts with weekly for awareness of the big picture. From there, I could manually set up my current broker's real-time charts for Intraday on a couple of the most interesting prospective markets to monitor positions or potentially fine-tune entries/exits (given the apparent high-cost of real-time datafeeds from NYMEX, CME, CBOT, NYBOT, etc). As such, I am open to a two broker/software approach if that will optimize my chart functionality requirements (namely saved settings for multiple markets & line projections), real-time quote needs, and low cost commisions/fees/software/datafeed objectives. In other words, what I am saying is maybe I should stick with my current broker for real-time Intraday manual charts and find a high-function/low-cost trade software/broker for delayed NYMEX/CME/CBOT/NYBOT daily/weekly charts (with saved settings & line projection programming capabilities) to facilitate my end-of-day monitoring of numerous futures markets (I do work a day job you know). It looks like Ensign would be a good fit for these needs for $40/month... especially given the free delayed US Futures quotes (less than half TradeStation's $99/month and I don't need auto-order-execution or another broker). From your experience with CQG/TradeStation/etc, do you think Ensign would be the best option to meet my stated objectives? Are there any popular software packages/brokers that you think I should rule out because they won't provide the saved settings ease of monitoring multiple markets / line projections capabilities or for other bad personal experience reasons? Finally, have you had any personal success applying Chick's methods to Intraday 15-min or 60-min bars since you commented on these time frames in previous appends? Thanks again.
FuturesTrader

 

[Jyde]

Me, myself, of course, is a complete AmiBroker convert (www.amibroker.com). Have a look!

 

[TGM]

Me, myself, of course, is a complete AmiBroker convert (www.amibroker.com). Have a look!

I have never used Amibroker. Post some charts and let us take a look. Is it easy to program? Where do you get your data?

 

[TGM]

Futurestrader,

It is a highly individual choice. You can use the Ensign version for 30 days free. There are some that love certain software packages and others that hate them. It just depends. I like Ensign. It is not CQG perfect ---but it is not a $1000 a month. Tradestation is ok. I left Tradestation for Ensign. That is just me.

You can use Ensigns 30 day free trial and get all kinds of end of day and realtime delayed intraday charts and see for yourself.

Do not change what you are doing or your software will nilly. Take your time. Software is NOT the most important thing in trading.

 

[Jyde]

I have never used Amibroker. Post some charts and let us take a look. Is it easy to program? Where do you get your data?

I used eSignal prior to AB, and so far all comparisons go to AB.

I have included a screenshot with indicators set up per Goslin's methods (i.e. a 49 MA and simple MACD 3.10.16, bot with indicator where it was 49/16 bars ago).
Plenty more on the webpage, if you are so inclined...

I have only used free sources and eSignal as datafeed, and both works fine. There is a whole range to choose from, though (see. http://www.amibroker.com/guide/h_quotes.html).

As for ease of programming, how long is a piece of string? You can choose to use javascript or VB, though most opt for the resident AFL (AmiBroker Formular Language). It takes a little getting used to as it is array based, but is exceptionally fast.
I would personally say it is farily easy to get to grips with, though I have a background in programming.
Here is the snippet for the MACD from the screen shot, just to give you a general idea:

P = ParamField("Price field",-1);
r1 = Param( "Fast", 3, 2, 200, 1 );
r2 = Param( "Slow", 10, 2, 400, 1 );

MACD_adv_array = MA(P, r1) - MA(P, r2);
Plot(MACD_adv_array, "MACD Adv", ParamColor( "MACD Color", colorGreen ), ParamStyle("MACD Style") );

r3 = Param( "Signal", 16, 2, 200, 1 );
Plot(MA(MACD_adv_array, r3), "Signal", ParamColor( "Signal Color", colorBrown ), ParamStyle("Signal Style", styleDashed) );

startingPoint = BarIndex()== (LastValue(BarIndex()) - r3);
Line = ValueWhen( startingPoint , MACD_adv_array);
Plot( Line, "", ParamColor( "Line Color", colorGrey50 ), ParamStyle("Line Style", styleDashed | styleNoLabel));

All the best...
CJ

 

[rjay]

I have a copy of 'Trading Day By Day' in excellent condition. If anyone is interested, please PM me.

 

[FuturesTrader]

Ensign Software

Futurestrader,

It is a highly individual choice. You can use the Ensign version for 30 days free. There are some that love certain software packages and others that hate them. It just depends. I like Ensign. It is not CQG perfect ---but it is not a $1000 a month. Tradestation is ok. I left Tradestation for Ensign. That is just me.

You can use Ensigns 30 day free trial and get all kinds of end of day and realtime delayed intraday charts and see for yourself.

Do not change what you are doing or your software will nilly. Take your time. Software is NOT the most important thing in trading.

TGM,
I've read up on various trading software packages, read reviews, and asked questions directly to some vendors. For my purposes (as detailed in my previous two appends), I thought Ensign Windows looked like a good fit so I'm trying it out for 7 days free (the 30 day trial offer was discontinued some time ago). I'm very impressed with the chart customability, asthetics, and features so far, although I'm sure I've hardly scratched the surface. To apply Chick's methods in Ensign, do you use the straight 3/10-16 Simple MACD or do you have a customized indicator which normalizes / scales like SMR's SL / ML lines? If you have a custom SL / ML-type indicator, would you be willing to share the code? I also was wondering if you have had any personal success applying Chick's methods to Intraday 15-min or 60-min charts in general? Thank you for all your help.

 

[TGM]

TGM,
I've read up on various trading software packages, read reviews, and asked questions directly to some vendors. For my purposes (as detailed in my previous two appends), I thought Ensign Windows looked like a good fit so I'm trying it out for 7 days free (the 30 day trial offer was discontinued some time ago). I'm very impressed with the chart customability, asthetics, and features so far, although I'm sure I've hardly scratched the surface. To apply Chick's methods in Ensign, do you use the straight 3/10-16 Simple MACD or do you have a customised indicator which normalises / scales like SMR's SL / ML lines? If you have a custom SL / ML-type indicator, would you be willing to share the code? I also was wondering if you have had any personal success applying Chick's methods to Intraday 15-min or 60-min charts in general? Thank you for all your help.

I use a 3/10/16 simple. The scale will never be the same as SMR. That does not matter. I do not get too technical. Every different software vendor will have different scaling. But that is just a small detail. I have found that as long as you have a reasonably reliable indicator---you are fine. I try not get to technical or precise---it just doesn't pay with a momentum method like this.


Yes I have been at this a long time and you can use it on anything that moves well. The dominate trend on the daily chart is what will pay the most money. However, you can get a jump on things with 60 minute charts or even 15 minute. But the shorter timeframes get more whippy. Keep it simple and start with the basics.

 

[KarlaF]

tgm,

looking at your er2 60min chart.
where did you found an entry after price has crossed below the midband and the ma50??
price falls like a knife and just looking at the 3/10 i would not have seen an entry with a moderate risk for a stop placement.

would it be possible to put up today after trading a follow up chart?
karla

 

[TGM]

tgm,

looking at your er2 60min chart.
where did you found an entry after price has crossed below the midband and the ma50??
price falls like a knife and just looking at the 3/10 i would not have seen an entry with a moderate risk for a stop placement.

would it be possible to put up today after trading a follow up chart?
karla

Come on now Karla!!! It went concurrent to the downside with plenty of time!! Don't look for perfect entry points with perfect stop placement ---they do not exist!! See a market ---see momentum ---plunge in!!!

Moderate risk is all in your head ---the best trades 'feel' the most risky.

 

[FuturesTrader]

Thanks

I use a 3/10/16 simple. The scale will never be the same as SMR. That does not matter. I do not get too technical. Every different software vendor will have different scaling. But that is just a small detail. I have found that as long as you have a reasonably reliable indicator---you are fine. I try not get to technical or precise---it just doesn't pay with a momentum method like this.


Yes I have been at this a long time and you can use it on anything that moves well. The dominate trend on the daily chart is what will pay the most money. However, you can get a jump on things with 60 minute charts or even 15 minute. But the shorter timeframes get more whippy. Keep it simple and start with the basics.

TGM,
After trying out the software for about a week, I've subscribed to Ensign Windows. Thank you for your guidance with this and my other questions. Best regards.

 

[KarlaF]

Come on now Karla!!! It went concurrent to the downside with plenty of time!! Don't look for perfect entry points with perfect stop placement ---they do not exist!! See a market ---see momentum ---plunge in!!!

Moderate risk is all in your head ---the best trades 'feel' the most risky.

maybe you are right. but in the long run you will have a better risk-reward chance if you use a systematic entry trigger.
i for one look for a trigger. no trigger no trade. at least i look for chick's SL line to come back the zero line.
i don't like the feelings, i like much more statistics.

 

[TGM]

maybe you are right. but in the long run you will have a better risk-reward chance if you use a systematic entry trigger.
i for one look for a trigger. no trigger no trade. at least i look for chick's SL line to come back the zero line.
i don't like the feelings, i like much more statistics.

I got ya. I use a systematic entry once ----I get a concurrent signal put in an order at 'unchanged or better' (limit order).

 

[KarlaF]

I got ya. I use a systematic entry once ----I get a concurrent signal put in an order at 'unchanged or better' (limit order).

touché <g>

 

[FlexMan]

Hi,

what would you consider to be the weakest market of Dow, S&P or NDX?

trend in the Dow not really changed yet.
in the S&P the direction line just changed.
and in the NDX the trend is clear down.

all three have very negativ SL values.
but even if NDX is concurrent to the downside, due to the low SL i guess an entry could be late.

would be interested in how others see these three markets right now.
don't misunderstand. no advise is required just some analysing of our three lines.

any takers?
cheers
Flex

 

[BigK]

To apply Chick's methods do you use the straight 3/10-16 Simple MACD or do you have a customized indicator which normalizes / scales like SMR's SL / ML lines?

Can you tell a little bit more about Chick's methods ?