THT's Methods that WIN

[THT]

Here is something new to the thread but very old in terms of its use

Human beings are EMOTIONAL - this feeds through as FEAR and GREED and we can see it in stock prices

So why not USE it, to OUR advantage?

Well we can

Add these to your analysis and you will be surprised

Look at the WEEKLY sentiment readings - make a note of the LEVELS were past reversals have happened and use that number as a proxy to then start looking for the OPPOSITE side of the sentiment reading

i.e. Lets say that based on the AAII members below, a reading of BEARISH 40% = The average level that market corrections "suddenly" reverse, then you can start to look for longs etc

The VAST majority of people are WRONG at key market reversals - this is why you can use the Index/readings to take the opposite side of what the general thinking is

This is another Sentiment Index from Investors Intelligence:

As you can see the RED line is the % of BULLISH advisers (fund managers etc) and as you can see, when the % is LOW, the markets tend to rally!

Likewise, when the reading is 60%+ the market tends to fall or correct!!!

CNN have put together a few fear readings

https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

you can find the put/call ratio here https://ycharts.com/indicators/cboe_equity_put_call_ratio or from the cboe itself

https://www.cboe.com/us/options/market_statistics/daily/

As you can see the Put/Call Index is above 1 = TRADERS are very BEARISH and have been buying lots of PUT options (expecting markets to FALL)

Watch for a market reversal! This will happen as all those traders short the market have to cover their puts with calls = price rises

 

[THT]

Think about everything that is going on here

Let me show you how you can go AGAINST the main TREND and still make money (But its much easier, going WITH the trend)

• What has happened here is all the 2RSI's LINED up @ <25%
• Which resulted in a no-brainer multiple R profit trade
• I entered on the 15 min Time-Frame chart
• So even though the main trend is DOWN, we WAITED until EVERYTHING was in place on ALL Time-Frames to execute a counter-trend intra-day trade

DAILY Time-Frame chart = BEARISH (SMA's down + Lower Lows and Lower Highs)

BUT the 2RSI cycle Indicator is <25% as of YESTERDAYS CLOSE = "POSSIBLE" pop higher to some degree - JUST from this 1 Indicator (which we use to watch for price cycles) we have Identified a possible "pause" in the downtrend

60 Minute Time-Frame = Possible trend reversal playing out to some degree

We get a TREND set-up on the hourly chart - the bar was a bit wide , but it was tradable, the most Important thing was 2RSI <25% on this and the DAILY chart = "possible" pop higher to some degree

15 Minute Time-Frame = BULLISH (Higher Highs) + SMA's

We then get a TREND set-up on the 50 SMA = Set orders to go long if the high of the set-up bar taken out (the set up 4 bars back = loss)This

This trade made 3.3R profit (just stopped out literally)

So including the previous loss of 1R = 2.3R profit so far

Remember we just need a net 3R per week to DOUBLE our trading account every year

MAKE A BIG NOTE - We ONLY trade this for the "pop" higher - we are not trading it to reverse the main daily trend - Unless you had formed an opinion that the daily price low was at key retracement level etc - for me this trade was just the pop higher, in and out - just play for the 3R and you will soon massively outperform most people in this game

Notice how the RSI acts as a cycle Indicator - If you're right, then it WILL result in price going higher during normal trading hours and where volume /liquidity is present

 

[THT]

That's 5R for these 2 trades

add that to the 2.3r from the GBPUSD trade earlier on and thats a 7R return on the week

PS the DAILY 2RSI for the SP500 at close of play yesterday was <25% = "POSSIBLE" pop higher and the net result of that expectation is as per todays price action on the right of the chart - THIS IS OUR EDGE AGAINST THE MARKETS

adding multiple time-frames into the mix, can put YOU on the right side of the %'s

I hate talking money/returns, because it can sound like bragging - I'm emphasising to get the point across how EASY this is in the correct conditions

Market sets up, you set the trade order and if it triggers you manage the position by trailing up a stop until taken out

I now have the option to stop trading for the week, coming back refreshed for next week - I've got live daily chart trades on the books so I can't really do that, but you get the point

Pays to sit down and work out what moves, move well, under what conditions

 

[THT]

So you can see how the GBPUSD trade panned out - which was shown as a plain old normal set-up

If you took it one stage further and applied retracement levels and Gann Box with extended angles

You would have seen that the market bounced off support - which you can use to back up the validation of your thinking

Either way, we got a nice trade for profits - which is what the game is ALL about, however, you do it

People will tell you NOT to try to catch falling knives and they are right for the masses

But if you possess the skills to catch them, then you can - I have for over a decade now

Just remember, the markets are a complex geometrical grid system and with everything geometrical - it can be proven by exactness in some form of ratio of geometrical shapes (I've shown you how the top in 2022 came in within 1single point of perfection, the 2009 stopped dead on 57.7% of the 2007 high, well again within 1 single point of perfection)

Freemasons refer to the ratio of 70.7% as the "Sacred Cut" because it is 50% of 1.4142 which is the square root of 2 and the diagonal of a square

You can still get away with using Fib but if you use Fib, you really should be using the ratios of the other geometrical growth building blocks like the square, cube etc

ALL the mathematics you need are right there within the Great pyramid

 

[THT]

Probably the last time I'll write about this - Its happened again

All you have to do is be prepared

• 2RSI <25% - Is there anything else?
• Trend?
• Gann Box extended angle?

This is virtually as close to being guaranteed as you're going to get

 

[THT]

you can find the put/call ratio here https://ycharts.com/indicators/cboe_equity_put_call_ratio or from the cboe itself
https://www.cboe.com/us/options/market_statistics/daily/
As you can see the Put/Call Index is above 1 = TRADERS are very BEARISH and have been buying lots of PUT options (expecting markets to FALL)

Watch for a market reversal! This will happen as all those traders short the market have to cover their puts with calls = price rises

and we got the reversal a couple of days later!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You could trade this on lower time-frames using TREND or however you prefer to trade - the point being we USED an outside source of TRADER EMOTION INDICATOR to PREDICT the likely course of market action

Obviously at some point you get bearish market action and day after day of high put/call readings over 1 - When this happens you need to start looking at extreme readings and working out when everyone thinks the decline will never stop, that's your point of watching for a reversal etc

 

[THT]

If you've read this thread, you'll know that I've shown some pretty basic methods to beat the market and be able to make a living at this game

You'll of also of seen me mentions the Planets - You probably dismissed the mention as stupid, idiotic, crazy, as if, planets? No way, the markets are random

You know when markets just suddenly turn out of the blue, through no logical sense whatsoever - its probably got something to do along the lines of this..................

Don't think that planetary work is this easy though - this is the simplest form of it and it doesn't appear all the time, just at certain times

Take the LOW PRICE add 360 POINTS to the LOW PRICE, place a HORIZONTAL line market (not shown), then, MOVE along the TIME axis by the req'd number of days for the planets CYCLE - as an example for EARTH UP 360 pts across 365 cal days, where the up angle crosses the low + 360 points horizontal line that's the planets timing angle

you can see those on the chart below - This IS what GANN was doing with his Gann Angles!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Notice the accuracy of MERCURY!

Avid readers of this thread, will notice that I predicted the Jan 2022 HIGH before it got there - those other methods coupled with this, turned out to be one of the greatest top calls out there

Copy those angles across and if a planet is ACTIVE, then you'll ALWAYS get a reaction off the angle - you HAVE to accept that other planets, combinations etc are also there in the background and can "interfere" with things

Refer BACK in this thread to the GEOMETRY I showed of this market getting within 1 point of the high - That geometry could have been on a chart YEARS AGO, then when the 2020 low was evident (due to multiple other factors) you could have drawn this Mercury angle line and it would of intersected the other geometrical work to the same time and price

I cannot tell you the wonder when you have these lines on a blank chart and then you watch week after week as price moves towards the expectations - obviously you make money from it, but the fact that the markets move to these levels and angle is truly gob smacking

Notice the "SQUARE OUT" - Anyone familiar with Michael S Jenkins works, that is what he means by a square out - he just doesn't tell you its a planetary square out

The bright BLUE angles are simply normal Gann Angles using the main Mercury angle used as the 1 x1 - again you can copy them and move them around the chart if you like

PS - WHEN you see fast angled price action, Mercury is usually the culprit

It would be perfect if we could just place planetary lines on a chart and the market perfectly bounces off them all the way up and all the way down - BUT, its not that simple, In the chart above, think about this - MERCURY worked all the way up from the 2020 LOW to the 2022 HIGH and it stopped PRECISELY/EXACT at the point that the geometric ratios of the square and golden rectangle had been formed EXACTLY (previously shown in other posts on this thread), so MERCURY was forcing the buying UNTIL the COMPLETION of the GEOMETRIC SHAPES - The universe is moving and that movement is somehow throwing vibrations which is being shown on price/time charts of human buying and selling in the financial markets - This is Gann's "Law of Vibration" statement, that he refused to fully explain - when you sit and think about it, it is just truly amazing and those that "GET IT" will question the purpose of human life and then the MATRIX films don't seem that far fetched after all

Now this just happened to be a simplified coincidence - often planetary duo's force the angles and you have to calculate the timing angles of the combined planets ascent/decent

In the chart above also note the EARTH "square out" of the 50% level at the same time as the Mercury down "square out" AND price touching the blue VENUS planetary angle up from the Oct 2022 LOW

 

[THT]

Remember you don't need to know anything about Gann or the planets to make money from the markets - keep things nice and simples

TRADING WITH THE TREND

A friend wanted me to capture a screen shot for a £75 risk for a smaller account - I had to trade this on a 15 min chart live at the time of writing and up 2R

The margin at that £ per pip might cause issues for a small account, but you just trade within margin limits and adjust the £ per pip down - this is a UK spread bet - so you might trade a smaller £ per pip

Remember if you are making a NETT 3% (3R) per WEEK and 1R = 1% then you will DOUBLE your account every year

We are sitting WAITING for PICTURE PERFECT set-ups ONLY - Then we take a position - you HAVE to IGNORE the rest of the noise that happens for the other 95% of the week - If you will struggle with the noise, then make it a RULE that once you have a NETT 3%/3R for the week, you simply stop trading and do NOT look at the markets for the rest of that week

If we closed this trade out right now, then we only need to sit and wait for another 1R for the week, then we could be done for the week

Years back when I was trying to piece everything together - I've only a average brain - It made sense for me to label picture perfect set-ups as coloured cars - so I wait for RED/GOLD/BLACK coloured cars to show up and only trade those colours, no shades of the colour - just perfect set-ups

and if all we need is 3R per week, then we just sit and wait

In this example the entry was calculated, the stop placement was calculated that range of risk was then divided into £75 to ascertain the £ per pip to bet

The "EDGE" we have over the house is that we KNOW that more often than not when the SMA's are in a certain order and moving UPWARDS in unison/uniformed fashion, then when the 2RSI <25% more often than not we get a PRICE CYCLE low which results in multiple R profits

 

[THT]

I forgot to post this one from the other week - UK share - hour time-frame

See how easy it is - the boring bit is sifting through the markets to see what is lining up and waiting!

 

[THT]

This why I have a swing file on my charts

If you've read this thread, you will know that I believe that the planets and the market are building geometric structures from the markets swings

Here we can see the geometric structures from the swings - I've deliberately used the biggest market cap stock in the LSE UK market and I went back nearly 10 years of price action randomly to show you the examples below - but they happen often on all time-frames and all markets

Notice that these triangles aren't uniform either - they look "twisted" - this is the effect of price and time moving through a higher dimension than a 2 dimensional space that you are FORCED to view it through - The key parts of these structures are the % retracements they make (see cheat sheet below)

You will also find that the higher time-frame momentum Indicators will often be in or very close to the extreme zones as these patterns complete, which then allow you to hone down onto the lower time-frame for trade execution etc

BOTH the examples below you could have gotten into the trade within a couple of bars of the BAT formation and right on the low bar of the GARTLEY pattern

So when you get what you think is sideways erratic market price swing action - think harmonics, because these are not random events - the GARTLEY pattern was discovered in the 1940's!

Weekly price chart showing you what the weekly chart of the period looked like - notice the oversold Indicator positions for the relevant structures!

Here's a cheat sheet of the patterns - Note the retracement of the X-A leg often gives away the possible structure way before it emerges - but it not cast iron and as you can see, some of these structures have extended legs which pass the X starting point which can cause issues with stop placements - you can

 

[THT]

So with our swing file on the chart to pick out patterns, mainly geometrical ones, we can look for the swings as per the cheat sheet above

This is a live possibility for a GARTLEY pattern its a UK stock DAILY Timeframe - Its a decent sized one too - obviously it is not guaranteed to work or happen, but EVERYTHING for the pattern is 95% in place

(If you look across to the left of the chart in NOV/DEC 2023 you will see another perfect GARTLEY pattern followed by a bounce into the new year high - this GARTLEY was the same size % as the swing file of 4% of price action)

Here's the WEEKLY higher time-frame chart along with the Indicator positions - The 2RSI is ripe for a bounce of some sort

You can play these set-ups cautiously or aggressively - up to you and your personality

The aggressive trader will try to place a stop somewhere in the X-D zone
The cautious trader will put the stop under the X position

 

[THT]

If you go to page 4 and find the CYCLE COMPOSITE INDEX - the RED LINE is the PROJECTION/PREDICITION

It's not 100% correct, but it is pretty damn accurate - as has been proven

I published this the other week - I can't show too much, but this is a planet line, projected from the 2009 666.79 PRICE level, at the various intersections of TIME as you can see - pretty blooming accurate for 15 years! The ORIGINAL planet lines are the ones from 2009, the others are simply a COPY of them moved forward to the appropriate TIME but from the same PRICE level

There's something wrong with you if you are not impressed by this chart - It is concrete proof that market time and price move to planetary influence

Then we have a manually calculated price projection zone - which as the markets have proven, worked!

Again, if you had this and the Gann angles chart, you could have looked at the price projection below and noted that it was extremely close to the gann angle 1 x 1 pink and yellow gann angle to form an opinion

This might be the final top, it might not be - time will tell, but we've had multiple mathematical based concepts all coming together, which has resulted in the SP500 falling from a key TIME & PRICE level

If it is the top, it's about to get Interesting in the years ahead

Enjoy the rest of the summer

 

[tr1ps_master]

Hey THT,

Really interesting insights here.

You mentioned you have been trading this style for a decade now (your post #84), what are your stats, i.e:
- number of trades in total and how many you typically take in a year?
- how much do you risk per trade?
- win %?
- R return?

 

[THT]

Hey THT,

Really interesting insights here.

You mentioned you have been trading this style for a decade now (your post #84), what are your stats, i.e:
- number of trades in total and how many you typically take in a year?
- how much do you risk per trade?
- win %?
- R return?

Hi Thanks

I don't have the stats you desire as this is just one of the methods I trade and I definitely don't take every opportunity presented throughout the year, as I sometimes only trade for 6 months or so, other times 44 weeks of the year - so I know that I miss many many many opportunities some years and I bundle all of my trades (from various trading methods) into the one trading account

Sometimes I go weeks without looking for trades as in that example, so its not something I am constantly scanning for as there are much easier ways to get money from the markets

The risk for this would be 1% typical, but again, depending on how I feel at the time, it could be 0.5%, 0.25% or it may even be 3% and I trade multiple units - I don't have hard and fast rules for this, just depends on the day - If you are starting out, then I would have hard and fast rules that you stick to, I just don't because I've been doing this for a while now and I pick and choose what I do and when

The % win rate is high, because you are not blindly buying the extended angle line (although you could with a very wide stop under the gann box and 100% retracement level) - you are dropping down time-frames to find the start of a TREND in the direction of the expected bounce/counter-trend move

The R return is 2+ again I don't keep these stats, I just know it works and I sometimes cash out early, sometimes at a pre-set target, sometimes trail the move - again depends on the day what I want to do

I would not recommend counter-trend trades if you are new - there are far far far easier ways to extracts money out of the market buy following the trend and trading in the direction of the trend, rather than catching lows/highs

It is far easier to find a trend, wait for a little pullback and then trade the breakout or the pullback

 

[tr1ps_master]

Thanks for your reply, I totally understand, and I would agree that reversals are not a beginners game.

I have a strategy which is has a 50% strike rate, but still very profitable.

This approach is a completely new one on me, and it would be interesting to see how many trades you take in a month and the strike rate along with R.

Would you be willing to call some plays out live (as you take or about to take a trade) for like next 10 trades you make?

 

[THT]

Thanks for your reply, I totally understand, and I would agree that reversals are not a beginners game.

I have a strategy which is has a 50% strike rate, but still very profitable.

This approach is a completely new one on me, and it would be interesting to see how many trades you take in a month and the strike rate along with R.

Would you be willing to call some plays out live (as you take or about to take a trade) for like next 10 trades you make?

If you have something that works and is profitable, definitely stick with it - that's the aim of the game, then just see if it can be replicated on lower time-frames etc - just gotta find a method that suits you and your personality

Yeah I'll call some trades out - I'll show the bad as well as the good, as with everything, its not 100% perfect and sometimes you have to "read" the price action structure etc, but I'll try to explain that as we go along

The main reason I showed it, was purely to show that price action isn't some random thing, All those wiggles and squiggles are working out some geometrical growth/decline that even I don't understand fully

I've just got a few things to do over the next couple of weeks and then I'll focus on it

The concept is that price swings of significance form a box that is split geometrically and those geometric levels &/or the geometry within, is then forward projected into the future that could become support/resistance levels - these will or ideally should tie up with standard retracement levels and often explain the little overshoots of those std ret levels

 

[tr1ps_master]

There is "Structure" in the madness! and we can make use of that. I use simple price action and structure for my trades, it will be interesting to see your trades and whether its similar even though we use different methods.

Looking forward to it.

 

[THT]

There is "Structure" in the madness! and we can make use of that. I use simple price action and structure for my trades, it will be interesting to see your trades and whether its similar even though we use different methods.

Looking forward to it.

There is, but it's not clear cut as to how to see it all the time - The markets are moving in a 4 Dimensional time and Price movement, which is why everything is distorted on our 2 dimensional price charts - so we are always at a disadvantage

I typically use straight forward simple methods too - I don't trade the Gann Boxes all the time, its a lot of work compared to just watching price action

But when a market is falling off a cliff, it can always be useful to shove a Gann Box around the past Trend to see if an extended angle can catch it - I used to set orders right near the levels, but found that price often just moves really fast to the level and then bounces, without triggering the order, so I now resort to setting an alarm on the level, then when triggered, drop down a few time-frames to watch for price action that supports the direction of expectation

Can't remember if I showed this one or not - I would have found this in a weekly review (not done one for a while as I'm concentrating on other things at the moment) - the price PLUNGE would have alerted me to this, then you drop down to the Daily/60/15 min time-frames to look for bullish reversals

This is GOLD 15 min chart - I'm generally bullish on gold, we'll have to watch PA next week - These are 2 Gann Boxes stacked side by side

As this is a 15 min chart, I WAIT for price action to regain the SMA's, higher highs, higher lows etc - I DO NOT KNOW if this extended angle will hold price or not, I prefer the ones underneath, but its simply a case of watch and see - This hit the line EXACT late Friday night as I was having my chip supper - If this had happened during the trading day, I would have been tempted to build a position but as i was not present for it, I'll just have to watch and see what develops

The extended angle came from the 66.7% retracement level of the 1st Gann box, which is mathematically related to the CUBE

But you can visually see that these mystic levels often stop dead price plunges

I've got a long term target of $3000 for Gold and timing for May 2025 - I'll post that on here at some point - might be wrong, but since 2016 it's moved along with that expectation so we'll see

 

[tr1ps_master]

"The markets are moving in a 4 Dimensional time and Price movement, which is why everything is distorted on our 2 dimensional price charts - so we are always at a disadvantage".

• I am not sure I agree, what do you mean by the 4 dimensions?

The disadvantage is if you possibly think you can predict the market 100%, but you do not need to be to be profitable - it is gambling at the end of the day. You can have a lower strike rate like 30% but a RRR of 1:4, and you will still be very profitable, or have a 70% strike rate with a RRR of 1:1...again profitable.

• I am curious, you mention "I WAIT for price action to regain the SMA's, higher highs, higher lows etc" this to me looks like you are following price action and market structure, do you find you can see the chart clearly when you have the Gann boxes on the chart?

 

[THT]

"The markets are moving in a 4 Dimensional time and Price movement, which is why everything is distorted on our 2 dimensional price charts - so we are always at a disadvantage".

• I am not sure I agree, what do you mean by the 4 dimensions?

The disadvantage is if you possibly think you can predict the market 100%, but you do not need to be to be profitable - it is gambling at the end of the day. You can have a lower strike rate like 30% but a RRR of 1:4, and you will still be very profitable, or have a 70% strike rate with a RRR of 1:1...again profitable.

• I am curious, you mention "I WAIT for price action to regain the SMA's, higher highs, higher lows etc" this to me looks like you are following price action and market structure, do you find you can see the chart clearly when you have the Gann boxes on the chart?

Just remember that we are forced to view price action on a 2D chart/format - If prices are moving (which we are unable to see) in 4D then it explains the twisting of tops, bottoms etc - 3D would be seeing price action in 3D chart, 4D = adding in the MOTION of TIME through our view point

This is exactly what Gann was trying to do with his squared charts and his Gann box - see the 4th Dimension including TIME - If you notice on the Gann box published I show TIME in HOURS, which splits things fairly well

I wouldn't worry about it too much - when you know the planets driving things, and the sequence, its a little easier to understand -

You can't predict the market 100% all the time, its impossible to know every up and down, but you can predict certain times with high reliability

Yep I don't disagree with the R:R's and win rate - you have to find a method that suits YOU, that might be a 1:1 or a 1:10 with lower win rate or whatever

I trade very simply, I analyse using some more advanced methods - they don't always work, so I have a level, alarm that level, if price hits it I'm watching lower time-frames for signs of a reversal - sometimes you will get into the move very very close to the line hit, other times a little away

Again I would not worry about the Gann Boxes if its causing you issues - I'm just showing price isn't doing what most people think its doing - Apart from GOLD, I haven't looked at Gann Boxes for the last few weeks on price, so I can trade with or without them - I don't use the box itself as it is building, just the % levels of the box to run extended angles out through once the box is complete because once the box is complete it means that the forces that forced the box to be built, will likely have some mathematical relationship to price action after the completion of the gann box and you can find those by the extended angles outwards - I PREFER price plunges past 50% as a rule

If you go back through this thread towards the start I show a BLACK coloured chart of the DJIA from 1900 - If you find that chart and look at the DOWN sections, then imagine them STACKED on top of each other - 95% of the MAJOR swings are CONNECTED by the same planets at a separation of degrees that Gann shows on his Emblem - For example the 1974 LOW is directly connected by this separation to the 2007 HIGH, so if we then add that same calculation to the 2007 high, it is ultra high probability that we will get a major turn around the date of that projection in the NEXT DOWN section - to put this into context, the 1907 LOW is also directly linked to the 2007 high, because it is the same planets, the same separation, but the level of separation has just multiplied the only thing we do not know now is whether the turn will be a high or a low, but that becomes very clear as price moves towards the dates - We can project out these turns centuries into the future, this is an example of using the 4th Dimension

Taking this to another level, it MEANS, that HUMANS are still acting on those exact same emotional signals today as they did in 1907 which then show up on a price chart as a major extreme panic or greed bull run - don't ask me why sometimes its a high and others a low, I don't know, there will be some influence that determines that at a higher level, that I am not privy too - But in 2007 those exact same influences from those planets caused human traders to start selling in panic rather than buying as they did in 1907 or 1974

Those DOWN sections are building the TOP of a one CUBE and also at the exact same time, the BASE of the next cube - this is exactly WHY the 2009 low price fell 57.7% - 57.7% is the INVERSE of 1.732 which is the square root of 3 and 1.732 is the DIAGONAL of a cube - this proves the 3D aspect of price charts, add in TIME MOTION and you get the next dimension which obviously is the 4th Dimension - Remember Gann back in the 1900's was working on this concept, hence his angles, squares and boxes

(You only get the EXACT ratio's at the major turns - that are SQUARE ON in VIEW to US on a 2D chart - most of the time, TIME twists price action off centre so we cannot view square on) - If price action moved in 2 dimensions everything would be 100 times more simpler to trade and Invest

Anyway, Just trade as you prefer, if a price reverses off a level you are watching, it will move in accordance with trend formation rules (HH's/HL's or LL's/LH's etc)