Think house prices will rise now.. read this...

[zambuck]

Is that the case? I heard a radio interview "expert" (forgotten details etc) who reckons that current turnover is small because very many people are in or pretty close to negative equity and can't therefore participate in the market. This in itself is creating some localised shortages possibly leading to minor price rises. Also, the Land Reg figures though accurate are very much lagging. With unemployment rising, it would be interesting to know the volume - isn't this a parallel with a thin market?

So potentially we could have rising prices (of those properties being sold) while unemployment stifles the rest, creating an artificial shortage. Funny things - financial crises!

...Yes turnover will be slow, even the flood gates open with a trickle first...

...Yes times are bad etc, there are people with equity who are leading the race, and for first time in a decade, the first time buyers can afford to get mortgage.....And with the affordibility ratio, the banks are lending.

This time unemplyment is more in younger people...less than 25 years....Last time that was not the case...

...The whole point of the matter is that do not follow what the Pundits are saying, as none of them predicted anything that came along, now there are Pundits, and Pundits Pundits who are predictiong everything....

Just talk about yourself....Can you buy that property to buy to let...Is it affordable NOW than it was 18 months back...Do you think that in 3 years, even in uncertain times it will add at least 10% in value....Can you pay 35% of the value of the property, and rest with Bank Mortgage....If you think these are positive then Why will you NOT buy..?

 

[zambuck]

so how many of you touting house prices will go up have a portfolio of propertys? lol

houses will never see their highs again for atleast a generation

.....One only needs to look at the level of relative high one can achieve from today's price......

 

[Atilla]

Property prices: What to expect - news and predictions | This is Money

 

[WallStreetHero]

prices of property should move up as people look to get out of paper money and put it in hard assets to protect from hyperinflation.

 

[Hoggums]

House price recovery is a false dawn

 

[Trader333]

prices of property should move up as people look to get out of paper money and put it in hard assets to protect from hyperinflation.

That presumes that there is a large number of people with enough cash to buy which I doubt is the case. Also the government are bringing stamp duty back in January for properties over £125K which can only be less helpful for house price increases in my view.


Paul

 

[Atilla]

House price recovery is a false dawn

Hi Hoggums, I have been reading your posts and I think you are one of the biggest grizzlies on the economy I know but just imagine hibernating through winter and waking up to blossoming spring in the air. :clover:

Now hold that thought as you inhale that crispy fresh morning air... :clap:

 

[montmorencyt2w]

That presumes that there is a large number of people with enough cash to buy which I doubt is the case. Also the government are bringing stamp duty back in January for properties over £125K which can only be less helpful for house price increases in my view.


Paul

Well the aforecited Times article said that 40% of sales at the moment were cash buyers. I just wonder who these people are and where the cash is coming from.

As well as the stamp duty change you mention, VAT will also be going back up then, which will take a bit more cash out of the economy.

 

[Trader333]

I just want to say that I have every reason for wanting prices to rise as I own multiple properties without any mortgage. I just don't see it being of any significance with the impending situation that the next government are going to have to address which will include large rises in tax and a huge cut in public spending and rising unemployment. I see that yesterday a report came out from government employed consultants that said there is a need to cut 130K jobs in the NHS just to get spending back to an acceptable level on that service alone. Of course they outrightly rejected it (at the moment) because it would be politically damaging to say they agreed with it when we have an election only 9 months away. The thing is if they don't do this then the only alternative is massive tax increases as it has to be paid for some how and the UK public sector borrowing is the highest of all G20 nations at over 50% of GDP which is totally unsustainable.

In my view it will happen the only variable is when.


Paul

 

[barjon]

Don't be too gloomy, Paul. Just think of all that profit the Government is going to make from its "investment" in the banks.

jon

 

[Technically Fundamental]

If they make the banks mark to market again (which is the talk at the moment) maybe they can give banks hella tax.

BTW 130000 supposedly represented 10% of workforce. The cut should save 2bn S) so therefore

20bn total wage bill and 1.3m workers = 153846 av wage...????

What they need to do is sort out the effin medical companies and get prices cut

I'd like to see wages represented as a histogram mate and we can see where cuts can be made.

 

[oiltanker]

the local girls in town who only read celebrity mags are saying they want to start buying houses. when its got down to that level in the market then for me that is good enough.

 

[Hoggums]

Hi Hoggums, I have been reading your posts and I think you are one of the biggest grizzlies on the economy I know but just imagine hibernating through winter and waking up to blossoming spring in the air. :clover:

Now hold that thought as you inhale that crispy fresh morning air... :clap:

In my opinion the only reason house prices have risen so far is low interest rates. Remove that from the equation and the fundamentals don't support high prices with the economy the way it is and rising unemployment. There is definitely a mania back in the market and I see a topping out over winter and another spring bounce before it all goes horribly wrong.

I also don't see how pumping £200bn into the UK economy out of thin air isn't going to have substantial consequences in the future.

Barely 5 months ago there was talk of a 1930's style depression (probably overhyped) but all of a sudden we're on the mend? What happened this last 5 months - we increased our national debt - and the result - the economy continued to shrink.

No now we have a lot more money to pay back and a smaller economy to pay it back with - and what happens if inflation starts to take hold? Those repayments will rise further.

I don't see worse bottoming out than we've experienced already - but say goodbye the the heydays of 2000 and 2007 - they are gone for a very long time.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Apparently the argument is that money stopped the banks from failing and causing a uber-crisis. The recovery is aiding the favourable(?) banks mark-to-market pricing of the toxic assets which will in turn restore confidence in the banking sector. When the banking sector is stabilised then sentiment should change and the recovery should really start.

I prefer the alternate theory that they have thrown 200bn that could have went to investing in the brics into a woodchipper.

I have no experience as I don't own a house but I'll bet they're selling houses because daft sh1tes are opting into mortgages fixed at something like 5 above base on the premise that it wont go that high lol

 

[Atilla]

In my opinion the only reason house prices have risen so far is low interest rates. Remove that from the equation and the fundamentals don't support high prices with the economy the way it is and rising unemployment. There is definitely a mania back in the market and I see a topping out over winter and another spring bounce before it all goes horribly wrong.

I also don't see how pumping £200bn into the UK economy out of thin air isn't going to have substantial consequences in the future.

Barely 5 months ago there was talk of a 1930's style depression (probably overhyped) but all of a sudden we're on the mend? What happened this last 5 months - we increased our national debt - and the result - the economy continued to shrink.

No now we have a lot more money to pay back and a smaller economy to pay it back with - and what happens if inflation starts to take hold? Those repayments will rise further.

I don't see worse bottoming out than we've experienced already - but say goodbye the the heydays of 2000 and 2007 - they are gone for a very long time.

I bought a house when interest rates were 7% and then Mr Norman Lamont took it up to 15%. I beg to differ re: only reason being low interest rates... More to do with having spare cash and the desire to build and live in castles imho.

Perhaps OT but I heard someone say when the recovery comes round it will be at double levels to where we were at the height of the market as India and China will also play a big part in the equation.

Inflationary expectations are already in the economy and the fact that we still have +ve inflation is the only policy politicians and bankers and manufacturers have dealing with all this debt.

As long as we avoid stagnation, inflation will cure all our sins and currencies will absorb the stress & international harmony. Dare I say almost text book theory...

 

[N Rothschild]

I bought a house when interest rates were 7% and then Mr Norman Lamont took it up to 15%. I beg to differ re: only reason being low interest rates... More to do with having spare cash and the desire to build and live in castles imho.

Perhaps OT but I heard someone say when the recovery comes round it will be at double levels to where we were at the height of the market as India and China will also play a big part in the equation.

Inflationary expectations are already in the economy and the fact that we still have +ve inflation is the only policy politicians and bankers and manufacturers have dealing with all this debt.

As long as we avoid stagnation, inflation will cure all our sins and currencies will absorb the stress & international harmony. Dare I say almost text book theory...

shame text book theory never actually works huh. you should try developing your own thesis sometime instead of just regurgitating what you "read"

 

[Atilla]

shame text book theory never actually works huh. you should try developing your own thesis sometime instead of just regurgitating what you "read"

I never copy other peoples work and where I do I normally post the link.

I think most people can make up their own minds for them selves whether I'm repeating other peoples hear say or whether they are my very own ideas formed over many years of reading around current afairs - material that is far more diverse and international than you can possibly imagine.

Most of your sarcastic blogs don't exceed 3 lines which is the grasp of your intellectual grip on any thing of substance.

Stropy git. So what will be your name this weekend - Victoria...

 

[N Rothschild]

material that is far more diverse and international than you can possibly imagine.

classic.

anyway thats no way to talk about the telegraph

 

[Hoggums]

Some more bear food for you...

Mortgage Defaults Shifting to Prime Borrowers: Report - Economy * Europe * News * Story - CNBC.com

 

[N Rothschild]

how was the day job attilla? i just got back a lovely swim/steam/sauna this afternoon