Think house prices will rise now.. read this...

[Trader333]

All from EC and beyond will strive to enter UK because of one single factor....English Language....

I agree we will see a large drive to get into the UK from the EU but I disagree with the reason you have given and in my view it will be because of the UK benefits system which now accounts for over 25% of all government spending.


Paul

 

[zambuck]

...All EU Nationals are entitled to Benefits across EU.....

....French and Germans have better bnenefit system than UK in real sense...and private Medical care is cheaper then UK in real terms....

....And many immigrants outside EU do not even get any State benefits now....

 

[Atilla]

I agree we will see a large drive to get into the UK from the EU but I disagree with the reason you have given and in my view it will be because of the UK benefits system which now accounts for over 25% of all government spending.


Paul

Germany and the UK has a net aging and decline birth rate. They both need half million of immigrants per annum to maintain a young popullation.

The future is very bleak for countries with aging popullations

Excess debt, excessive NHS costs and shrinking pension funds. Without young tax payers we all doomed.


Some elderly people in old peoples homes need two people just to move them about so that they don't get bed sores. Ridiculous allowing people - who can't wipe their own back sides to live in a vegetating state. Government even takes the right to suicide from those who would like to end it all.

I reckon instead of stopping young vibrant popullations coming in looking for better life and work ethics we should do what the vikings did. Any old person who can't wield a battle axe should jump off the cliffs of Dover. Those old geezers who can wield a battle axe should be sent to fight in Afghanistan so we can have the young blood over here so they can work and reproduce to get the popullace numbers up.

The world is all twisted imho...

 

[shatztrader]

...Japan will NOT have the immigration that UK will have in next ten years from expanding EC.....All from EC and beyond will strive to enter UK because of one single factor....English Language....

....Japan is relatively immigrationless.....and self contained entity....But it has precious less land mass and hence the property prices....UK has relatively larger land mass and all this talk about UK as Island being full is baseless scaremongering from far right.....

...Just check the statistics of how many houses are needed in this country and you will know...

India on the other hand is enjoying a bix ex pat immigration in Goa and other parts.....Land value has reached dizzy heights and there is still no end in sight....Small farmers have become zillionarires overnight....and it is still going on....

One of the fastest growing economis of the world today and has a huge manufacturing clout, and it was not at all affected by the credit crunch as Indians have always remained aloof to UK and US Economies...

So every country is different when you look at property prices....

The last time I have checked Japan happened to have larger land mass than UK.
As well as plenty of Korean immigrants due to war. In addition, the high rate of the olderly people and low percentage of newborn babies. Therefore the Japanese government considers bringing more immigrants. I know this actually from Japanese people.
I am also not quite sure about the mortgage thing as most people paying off after retiring. You have to consider mentality and Japanese culture, but it only shows how little you may know about it. Saving in contrary to spending culture.
The heritage tax is also f*** n high.
Where do you get your info from?

Many people comes to UK because the currency is so strong not because of english language.

 

[zambuck]

...Any student of Great Civilisations will know the reason why it declined.....It was because of self perpatutating belief in their own greatness...that will never cease....and arrogance to the core to accept the realities of life and world....It soon catches up.....But it is too late to know as trousers are already down on their knees...!

 

[gfrost]

maybe your right Zambuck, but if I had a pound for everytime someone said "its different this time because..." I would have one of the holiday homes in the link posted by cloud321 on this thread.
Back in the 80's there were similar arguments about why the Japanese market could not go down.

Cheers

Graham

 

[zambuck]

shatztrader
I read an article sometime back about Japan and UK and it was written by someone who was authority on property markets.....I just can't find that article now.....Anyway the statistics about Japan and UK were from that article....I think he was talking about the 'Land area' in terms of habitable or arable land....It is fine to say that country like Egypt is vast but effective land that will sustain life is less....

If Japan is thinking of bringing more immigrants then perhaps, with your greater knowledge about that land, perhaps you should go and ask Japanese Embassy that you want to migrate there...and see what answer you get....

Perhaps you would enlighten us all on Japanese mentality and what you are talking about mortgage, old people and Japan....

Heritage Tax may be high but then so what.....Someone with 1 million pound worth of property even after paying Tax etc is STILL richer than the one who has no property....

Where do I get the facts from....Well for a starter - and mostly Pubs.....!!...So perhaps you could give us more detailed and enlightened summary on Japan....After all you are not playing poker...!!

By the way see the link below.....Someone on this thread said that....if prices don't drop in value, I will eat my hat.....well that have seen 4 monthly rise in value.....And please don't ask me where I get the facts from....I don't always remember everything....!!...

BBC NEWS | Business | House price rise hits 5-year high

 

[zambuck]

maybe your right Zambuck, but if I had a pound for everytime someone said "its different this time because..." I would have one of the holiday homes in the link posted by cloud321 on this thread.
Back in the 80's there were similar arguments about why the Japanese market could not go down.

Cheers

Graham

...You are a trader....and you will know....sharper and deeper the depression....bigger and higher the rebound.....because of the efforts put in place by major economies.....

....Last weeks article in Times was talking about this issue with some great charts....

....But then where do they get the facts from, I hear many will say...!

 

[zambuck]

...Ah well back from after spending days with family .....and off again as kids want to go somewhere...!

....Time to sit under a tree and meditate....!

 

[shatztrader]

shatztrader
I read an article sometime back about Japan and UK and it was written by someone who was authority on property markets.....I just can't find that article now.....Anyway the statistics about Japan and UK were from that article....I think he was talking about the 'Land area' in terms of habitable or arable land....It is fine to say that country like Egypt is vast but effective land that will sustain life is less....

If Japan is thinking of bringing more immigrants then perhaps, with your greater knowledge about that land, perhaps you should go and ask Japanese Embassy that you want to migrate there...and see what answer you get....

Perhaps you would enlighten us all on Japanese mentality and what you are talking about mortgage, old people and Japan....

Heritage Tax may be high but then so what.....Someone with 1 million pound worth of property even after paying Tax etc is STILL richer than the one who has no property....

Where do I get the facts from....Well for a starter - and mostly Pubs.....!!...So perhaps you could give us more detailed and enlightened summary on Japan....After all you are not playing poker...!!

By the way see the link below.....Someone on this thread said that....if prices don't drop in value, I will eat my hat.....well that have seen 4 monthly rise in value.....And please don't ask me where I get the facts from....I don't always remember everything....!!...

BBC NEWS | Business | House price rise hits 5-year high

Japanese mentality, despite US consistent attempts to F*** the country up, is (was) somehow diffrent that Anglo-Saxon, as you might think.
First of all, if the person has not got the income level - Japanese bank will NEVER ever give one a mortgage.
Secondly, the propensity to save is somewhat similar to that of contonental Europe, ex Germany than UK, because of relaying on exports mainly and bearing in mind the limitation of natural resources.
So the model is very diffrent.
About immigration: they re thinking about it (parliment) not a law yet, quite scary in fact for Japanese as many Chinese will come to Japan. Think who is behind the political party which probably is going to win upcoming election. Those info are not available to people outside Japan and certainly not in local english pubs.
I do believe the application of monetary policy "methods" in 1990s were imposed by US.
As for house prices in UK. I dont have an opinion as it could be artificially created inflation by printing money and not investing them anywhere else, creating layers.

enjoy the long weekend........

 

[Atilla]

shatztrader
I read an article sometime back about Japan and UK and it was written by someone who was authority on property markets.....I just can't find that article now.....Anyway the statistics about Japan and UK were from that article....I think he was talking about the 'Land area' in terms of habitable or arable land....It is fine to say that country like Egypt is vast but effective land that will sustain life is less....

If Japan is thinking of bringing more immigrants then perhaps, with your greater knowledge about that land, perhaps you should go and ask Japanese Embassy that you want to migrate there...and see what answer you get....

Perhaps you would enlighten us all on Japanese mentality and what you are talking about mortgage, old people and Japan....

Heritage Tax may be high but then so what.....Someone with 1 million pound worth of property even after paying Tax etc is STILL richer than the one who has no property....

Where do I get the facts from....Well for a starter - and mostly Pubs.....!!...So perhaps you could give us more detailed and enlightened summary on Japan....After all you are not playing poker...!!

By the way see the link below.....Someone on this thread said that....if prices don't drop in value, I will eat my hat.....well that have seen 4 monthly rise in value.....And please don't ask me where I get the facts from....I don't always remember everything....!!...

BBC NEWS | Business | House price rise hits 5-year high

Yes you are 100% correct.

Moreover, reason why land prices are so high in Japan is because they are limited with habitable flat land area. What they do have (at least in the 80s) was used for farming rice.

Government would not import cheap rice but would favour the more expensive & costly domestic production. Not sure if situation changed now. Hence, expensive homes. Disequilibrium in one part of the economy would have repurcussions in another and another...

I'm looking forward to Mr Technically Fundamental to eat his hat too. Not too mention all those biased viewpoints listing 10 reasons why house prices should continue to plummet and not one reason why they could possibly rise... :cheesy:

 

[Technically Fundamental]

I said I'll eat my hat. House prices have a 1.7% increase MoM whereas I said house prices will fall for two years meaning overall. That article states we're still down 11-12% on July last year. Let's wait and see what fourth q 09 economics say instead of looing at nationwides rustled up figures.

 

[Atilla]

I said I'll eat my hat. House prices have a 1.7% increase MoM whereas I said house prices will fall for two years meaning overall. That article states we're still down 11-12% on July last year. Let's wait and see what fourth q 09 economics say instead of looing at nationwides rustled up figures.

ehem...

What you really said was

Originally Posted by Technically Fundamental
If house prices don't drop in value ove rthe next two years I'll eat my hat. Also remeber to question these biased figures they put out. Are the based on a standard deviation of national selling prices or a sample? What kind of people use the bank that provides the data? What regions have been considered? are they talking about? What kind of properties are losing the highest % of value e.g. flats, semi, det, and price range? Sale price vs asking prices?


maybe they'll re-evauluate who is prime and who is sub-prime after this fiasco lol.

Cut and paste is trully marvellous technology... :cheesy:

 

[zambuck]

I said I'll eat my hat. House prices have a 1.7% increase MoM whereas I said house prices will fall for two years meaning overall. That article states we're still down 11-12% on July last year. Let's wait and see what fourth q 09 economics say instead of looing at nationwides rustled up figures.

.......BBC is quoting figures are from Land registry figures that are ACTUAL transactions....These are the figures that appear on all Title Deeds......Sorry, this time I do remember where I read it...

 

[Technically Fundamental]

whats the sample zambuck

 

[zambuck]

...Sory...What do you mean...?

 

[N Rothschild]

so how many of you touting house prices will go up have a portfolio of propertys? lol

houses will never see their highs again for atleast a generation

 

[Atilla]

whats the sample zambuck

As Zambuck has stated these are sold houses from the Land Registry figures. They are FACTUAL! It is not a poll. Sample size is totally irrellevant.

 

[0007]

As Zambuck has stated these are sold houses from the Land Registry figures. They are FACTUAL! It is not a poll. Sample size is totally irrellevant.

Is that the case? I heard a radio interview "expert" (forgotten details etc) who reckons that current turnover is small because very many people are in or pretty close to negative equity and can't therefore participate in the market. This in itself is creating some localised shortages possibly leading to minor price rises. Also, the Land Reg figures though accurate are very much lagging. With unemployment rising, it would be interesting to know the volume - isn't this a parallel with a thin market?

So potentially we could have rising prices (of those properties being sold) while unemployment stifles the rest, creating an artificial shortage. Funny things - financial crises!

 

[Atilla]

Is that the case? I heard a radio interview "expert" (forgotten details etc) who reckons that current turnover is small because very many people are in or pretty close to negative equity and can't therefore participate in the market. This in itself is creating some localised shortages possibly leading to minor price rises. Also, the Land Reg figures though accurate are very much lagging. With unemployment rising, it would be interesting to know the volume - isn't this a parallel with a thin market?

So potentially we could have rising prices (of those properties being sold) while unemployment stifles the rest, creating an artificial shortage. Funny things - financial crises!

Damn statistics and lies... Yes possible.

I reckon seasonal fluctuations can easily explain the rises away. I expecting a Autumn / Winter drop anyhow.

However, the psychology of it imo is that the drop in price will be an opportunity to get on board. Subsequent house hunters following spring will be even more thirsty along with greedy households expectations even higher.

At work we are now looking to hire staff. Actively looking to recruit now and more heads around November.


One other point is the margin between LIBOR and mortgage rates has been at a higher level than ever - more profit for lenders... As rates begin to rise the I believe this margin will fall as banks once again compete. Providing buyers have chunky deposit the growth will be steady and consistent. Tear downs always much sharper and shorter in duration then long build ups.

I think to expect house prices to fall much further or flat line for much longer is unrealistic.

Finally, inflation is around the corner for sure. It is the only cure for government debt. Service cut backs and tax hikes are unreal just like our politicians.