The Simplest Trading Method In The World

[wackypete2]

Eventually, one of two things will happen. You get tired and change, or you get tired and quit.

This is a good summary of why there are 95% losers. We are all in that category when we start out, however some people are incapable or unwilling to change and remain in that category and eventually quit. Those that trudge on with an open mindset will eventually find themselves making some money.

Peter

 

[Pazienza]

I've been watching YM and NQ with a view to trading opportunities rather than confirmation/non-confirmation against ES and there is quite a bit of action in them isn't there my little love truncheon.

I prefer "pork sword" to love truncheon. And there is a lot of action - even more than I get with your female friends and relations. Haha! That will learn you to lulz me.

But yeah, they're good contracts to keep an eye on. Between the three there's a good bit of action. TF is worth monitoring as well (although I know some people complain about liquidity and ICE data fees, 70 bucks a month or thereabouts). But of the four, in terms of action, ES is actually bottom of my list - it just seems less "trendy" intra day.

Enough boring trading craplappaflapflap. First, some fresh produce - melons, to be precise:

And now, a couple of power ballads. First up, G n' R. For those b1tches who are saying that it's now just "Axl and some blokes", that's all it ever was. Compare Chinese Democracy with the solo output of the others post-Guns. That includes Slash.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQnno8hOL9w&feature=related

And finally, possibly the greatest video ever made. If you can't appreciate how awesome Billy Duffy is, you're just a tool. Don't blame me, I don't make the rules.

 

[DashRiprock]

hi

so you might all say i am a poof or whatever but

the first time i saw Kelly Brook was when she was new for Denise van Outen on the Big Breakfast, and she was nowhere near as fit or as fanciable.

deffo

as well i always thought on the telly her eyes looked quite far apart on her face and she was a little bit more stupid that i like. still rubbed one out mind

denise van outen > kelly brook

 

[Pazienza]

hi

so you might all say i am a poof or whatever but

Well, I prefer "gayer" or "homo", but sure.

the first time i saw Kelly Brook was when she was new for Denise van Outen on the Big Breakfast, and she was nowhere near as fit or as fanciable.

deffo

as well i always thought on the telly her eyes looked quite far apart on her face and she was a little bit more stupid that i like. still rubbed one out mind

Well, why didn't you say so before? That's fine in that case.

denise van outen > kelly brook

Denise Van Outen? She nasty, dogg.

You betta recognize.

 

[DashRiprock]

well watch this kelly brokk is stupid on th etelly and her eyes are really wide and shes got a nose like a front row
forward.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlkKUQlTtVo&feature=related

shes got better with age and as well i am less of a teenager than before but i still fancy denise more.

ish.

 

[robster970]

I agree with Dash - DvO > KB.

KB looks like she wouldn't get on with your mates, can't cook and regularly prangs your motor.

DvO looks like she'd positively encourage you to go out with your mates, can probably do a cracking fry-up and won't stop until your bits fall off.

No contest.

 

[Pazienza]

I agree with Dash - DvO > KB.

KB looks like she wouldn't get on with your mates, can't cook and regularly prangs your motor.

DvO looks like she'd positively encourage you to go out with your mates, can probably do a cracking fry-up and won't stop until your bits fall off.

No contest.

Bender.

 

[Pazienza]

Maybe I mentioned this before, but I'm planning to post all my trades during February. I won't be doing them in real time, so I'm afraid you'll have to take it or leave it. You'll probably see me breaking a lot of my own rules, but hopefully you should see me post a profit nevertheless.

As I stated at the start, I would never be interested in selling or teaching or anything of that kind. Therefore anyone that wants to see statements or live calls to validate my results is politely requested to direct their enquiries to the Lick My Sack Department.

I took this one today (first of the month). Nothing particularly special or terrible about it according to my criteria. I ended up being taken out at break even.

It's certainly not a textbook trade, but I've shown my stop reductions (ending at the top line which is break even) to show how I attempt to reduce risk in logical stages. When it approached the prior high (which is of course a pretty serious high) I set it to break even.

This is because I was not willing to take a serious loss on this trade. When it hit those previous highs, it had done all that I could reasonably expect. If you want to trade like this, you cannot afford to be surprised when price turns round on you. 9 times out of 10 there is an obvious explanation on your chart and you must do something - close, reduce risk, go to break even, or whatever. You cannot sit with your stop at the bottom and your thumb up your a$$ grumbling about how your broker is screwing you, or whatever other excuses you like to come up with.

Had this been a stronger set up with a better story behind it I would be willing to hold and willing to take a loss. But playing loose with this type of set up will bleed all your profits out and at best you'll be stuck at break even.

A big part of my progress was being willing to reduce risk, even if it meant taking a loss I could otherwise have avoided. It's annoying when it nicks your reduced stop and then turns to go on a make a fortune, but those times are worth it to reduce your average losses (at least, this applies to me and the trades I take). In all honesty it rarely happens - normally when it's turned bad by say 60% of the original stop distance, it's going the whole way.

Going back to Livermore / Lefevre:

Keep what shows you a profit, sell what shows you a loss.

Hope that market will continue to go in your favour, fear that it will continue to go against you.

(I'm paraphrasing, I can't be bothered to look up the quotes)

To put it another way, cut your losers and let your winners run.

 

[arabianights]

tldr

 

[Pazienza]

tldr

Gayer.

Behead Arabian Nights!

 

[robster970]

Suprised you didn't take the short off yesterdays RTH close on ES if you went for that kind of set up on the Russell........

btw - you're a ponce and you know it sister

 

[Pazienza]

Suprised you didn't take the short off yesterdays RTH close on ES if you went for that kind of set up on the Russell........

btw - you're a ponce and you know it sister

Have you got a chart? I can't see anything that I'd like, but maybe you're talking about a different view?

 

[robster970]

15M, ES, 15:45 candle GMT. Look at YM & NQ too, same candle and TF - all bearish hammers.

 

[Pazienza]

15M, ES, 15:45 candle GMT. Look at YM & NQ too, same candle and TF - all bearish hammers.

If we're looking at the same thing, all I see are small bars in traffic. There's no story, no indication of a reversal, no supporting factors at all really (just my opinion). The YM bar looks neutral to me - it closed down, just, but overall I wouldn't get any direction from it.

Is this the one you're talking about?

 

[arabianights]

8========================3

 

[robster970]

Look at today, not yesterday

 

[Pazienza]

8========================3

TLDR.

OK, I just about struggled to the end. What does that mean?

 

[arabianights]

IT IS A DIRTY GREAT BIG WILLY!!!!!

(duh)

 

[Pazienza]

Look at today, not yesterday

Sorry. I guess I should drink less in the evenings. Mornings too, probably.

OK, I saw that, and the YM one as well. Thanks for highlighting this, I was actually thinking of posting it as an example of one that I wouldn't take.

I don't think they're horrible, and you could certainly take them. For me though, they're really just bars. You're fighting a strong uptrend, straight into old resistance and round numbers (1320 ES and 12200 YM), and I just don't see a whole lot of confluence really. There's probably divergence there, if you like that kind of thing.

The bars themselves are OK but they don't particularly stand out to me. Obviously I'm not saying it's wrong to take those, and in this case it worked out fine, but personally I don't see them as strong enough.

The other thing is this - why take that one (on YM) and not the one that got chopped up a few bars before? In terms of position, that surely would have looked as strong, more so in my opinion.

So that looks OK to me but it's just not the kind of thing I'd want to rely on to turn this around. But I'm not saying I'm right and you're not - just that my assessment of that set up would be different. Chart of YM with both bars marked.

EDIT:

Good post by the way.

 

[robster970]

I think it is the rejection of the close, the sudden change in momentum and volatility expansion at the same time. I know the bar itself is pretty average but there's quite a bit else going on too. Just thought you might have considered it.