The FTSE

[ukhero]

UK,


You watching the market through the day?

rgds

On and off.


I'm at home today, but girly friends being what they are with no avid interest in the bid and offer of the financial markets, has decided that there's jobs to be done, shopping to get. That sort of thing.

As to the market: 5531, its dropped a little. Unless the DOW opens with a bang I would say that's where it will hover give or take 7pts.

UK

 

[apples10]

apples,

I think you were a bit harsh on ukhero, to mention the expiry was a bit like saying the pope is catholic, ukhero gives us his opinion day in day out yet he does not have to do it.

But not to mention it ruined all his good work previously!

I used to write a 'daily flow sheet' for the index futures market for a well known IB, I remember by boss saying at one point ' if you miss a key event or get a fv wrong then any clients who notice will never look at the research again', certainly made me concentrate on its accuracy.

UK also said '60% chance of a small rise' - wonder if this would have been the case had he factored in the expiry (and the recent tight trading range).

My view is that its good of him to write the note and to give his views, he's just got to mention the KEY events and give a concise view on how they'll affect the FTSE-100. Last night he made a key error in my view, which I pointed out to him.

Whether this is being hard on him or adding to his learning curve is open to debate.

 

[apples10]

On and off.


I'm at home today, but girly friends being what they are with no avid interest in the bid and offer of the financial markets, has decided that there's jobs to be done, shopping to get. That sort of thing.

As to the market: 5531, its dropped a little. Unless the DOW opens with a bang I would say that's where it will hover give or take 7pts.

UK

UK,

Dow futures are indicating that it'll open 34 points higher, if that proves holdable then I'd expect the FTSE to have a good old fashioned Friday afternoon beer inspired rally .

Lets wait and see

 

[ukhero]

But not to mention it ruined all his good work previously!

I used to write a 'daily flow sheet' for the index futures market for a well known IB, I remember by boss saying at one point ' if you miss a key event or get a fv wrong then any clients who notice will never look at the research again', certainly made me concentrate on its accuracy.

UK also said '60% chance of a small rise' - wonder if this would have been the case had he factored in the expiry (and the recent tight trading range).

My view is that its good of him to write the note and to give his views, he's just got to mention the KEY events and give a concise view on how they'll affect the FTSE-100. Last night he made a key error in my view, which I pointed out to him.

Whether this is being hard on him or adding to his learning curve is open to debate.

Feel free to debate, Apples.

As I've said, you did right to mention it.

Moving on...

UK

 

[Mornington Crescent]

Apples

"On average the FTSE does decline after an expiry."

lol

really helpful .........

anyway, where are the statistics for this.
would appreciate the link

 

[kriesau]

Apples

"On average the FTSE does decline after an expiry."

lol

really helpful .........

anyway, where are the statistics for this.
would appreciate the link

Well it did on Friday but only by 8pts.
The EDSP was 5539.5 and the close was 5531.6 !

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE Monday, 19th December 2005

Friday's results:

Open: 5495.
Close: 5531, up 36pts.

Range: 5495 - 5552.

Last 5 trading days: up 14pts.

On the Month: up 108pts. About right for the month.

Dow: 10,875, down 6pts.

Last 5 trading days: up 97pts. Still a little over par on this short term period

On the month: up 69pts. Still behind the FTSE. Don't be fooled by the conflict between 5 day and the month total, it happens, and therefore it should only be observed as a general guide as to the markets short term trend. Personally, I'm concerned as to the stability of this market considering what its been through over the past three months, and as such, I see the market dipping to 10,830 by the end of the week. Lets see.

News items of note:

LONDON (Reuters) - 'EU leaders welcomed a hard-fought budget deal as a victory for the bloc on Saturday, praising concessions by Tony Blair that won the prime minister accusations of surrender from critics at home.

"The big cloud has been lifted from Europe," said German Chancellor Angela Merkel, credited with a key role in forging consensus between Blair and French President Jacques Chirac at an EU summit.
The late-night deal was sealed after Britain agreed to cut its rebate, a regular adjustment negotiated in 1984, by 10.5 billion euros ($12.57 billion) over seven years and raise the bloc's overall budget in comparison to previous proposals'. - Not sure how the markets will react if at all.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Friday, two out of three charts stated a reversal of Thursday's fall. Monday, no clear indication but err towards a small rise.

Companies reporting:

WOOD GROUP

Economic Data:

None.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the DOW ended the day on a small negative but not enough to effect the FTSE; charts have no clear prediction. In all, and as it stands, it will be all down to the Bulls and Bears and who has soup and who has sandwiches for lunch.

Early gut feeling: it's too close to a 50-50 call.

Will I bet? Nope.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[apples10]

Apples

"On average the FTSE does decline after an expiry."

lol

really helpful .........

anyway, where are the statistics for this.
would appreciate the link

Hi Doublesix,

I've put loads of statistics on this site (see other threads).
If you're replying on a Sunday with regards to a Friday expiry I'll take it that you are not a serious trader of the FTSE - the next expiry is 17th March - plenty of time to do your own analysis. :cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy:

 

[mark twain uk]

every time it gets close to 550 I get itchy fingers and feel the need to hit the market

didn't do it this morning though, I think it's got a bit more to go

 

[ukhero]

every time it gets close to 550 I get itchy fingers and feel the need to hit the market

didn't do it this morning though, I think it's got a bit more to go

Marktwain,

You do well to hold back. Many a would be Spread better has his and her fingers burnt by betting for the sake of it, and I'm one of them.

My only advice is to hold back until the market stumbles or leaps and then go with your data as to which way it will turn. Having said that, this week and the run up until the end of the year I would suggest leaning on any historical data you have.

All the best

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE Tuesday, 20th December 2005

Monday's results:

Open: 5531.
Close: 5539, up 8pts.

Range: 5525 - 5548.

Last 5 trading days: up 38pts.

On the Month: up 116pts. Still about right for the month.

Dow: 10,836, down 39pts.

Last 5 trading days: up 71pts. Still a little over par on this short term period

On the month: up 30pts. Behind.

I anticipated a drop but not this early in the week. Shame I didn't bet, but that's life.

News items of note:

FT.com - 'UK government bond prices were up on Monday morning, spurred by dovish comments on the outlook for interest rates in the weekend press from the Bank of England’s chief economist. Charles Bean, interviewed in the Sunday Times, was quoted as saying that the Bank was unlikely to sit doing nothing until next spring, raising hopes in the market of an interest rate cut early in the new year. The Bank (NASDAQ: TBHS - news) left rates unchanged at 4.5 per cent at its last meeting, but data have shown inflation slowing more than expected in November.' - Good news indeed.

The yield on the 2-year gilt was down 5 basis points to 4.268 per cent in early trade, while the 10-year gilt lost 3.1bp to 4.162 per cent.

LONDON (Reuters) - 'Carphone Warehouse ramped up its challenge to BT Group Plc on Monday, announcing two acquisitions that will make it the country's second-biggest fixed line telecoms provider with a 10 percent market share. Europe's biggest mobile phone retailer, which also operates the TalkTalk fixed-line telecoms business, said it was buying One.Tel from utility group Centrica for an initial 132 million pounds. It also agreed to buy the UK and Irish fixed-line businesses of Swedish firm Tele2 AB for 8.7 million pounds.' - Worth a dabble.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Monday's was no clear indication but they did err towards a rise. Tuesday, no clear indication either way, which is to be expected this time of your with little or no movement in the market.

Companies reporting:

CAPITA
HANSON

Economic Data:

RICS hse survey, Prov M4 M/M [no idea what this is, so please comment if you do], PS net borrowing and PSNCR.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the DOW ended the day on a medium sized negative and there's a slim possibility of a knock on effect with the FTSE; charts have no clear prediction; miners deserve a careful eye as they did overly well today; no major companies reporting, but economic data may prove interesting.

Early gut feeling: it's close, but I'm inclined to favour a small drop.

Will I bet? Nope. In fact, I doubt if I'll bet at all this week. I adore adverse changes, but sadly I don't anticipate any in the week preceding the fat guy.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[Mornington Crescent]

Apples

that wasn't much of a reply
in fact you seemed to be avoiding anything substantive.

I will have to take it that you have no statistics and that you just made it up

However, if anyone else has any statistics, it would be interesting to see them.

 

[apples10]

Apples

that wasn't much of a reply
in fact you seemed to be avoiding anything substantive.

I will have to take it that you have no statistics and that you just made it up

However, if anyone else has any statistics, it would be interesting to see them.

Doublesix,

Anyone can get the numbers, I just implied that I'm bored of doing peoples leg work and that you've got 3-months to do it yourself.

My comment on Friday that market usually declines after an expiry was based on my observation of the market over the 22 years I've been in the industry and a subjective view of the market last week.

 

[kriesau]

Doublesix,

Anyone can get the numbers, I just implied that I'm bored of doing peoples leg work and that you've got 3-months to do it yourself.

My comment on Friday that market usually declines after an expiry was based on my observation of the market over the 22 years I've been in the industry and a subjective view of the market last week.

Is your comment related only to quarterly post triple-witching expiry ?
It would not appear to be the case on the monthly option expiry.

 

[apples10]

Is your comment related only to quarterly post triple-witching expiry ?
It would not appear to be the case on the monthly option expiry.

yes

 

[Profitaker]

Anyone have the current FTSE100 divisor ?

Thanks.

 

[mark twain uk]

doublesix,

I think apples is entitled to his views without having to justify them, after all, this is not Reuters, just a thread on a forum. He may be right, he may wrong, nobody really believes everything that is posted on a forum anyway. He is entitled to his opinion and you are entitled to disagree, but please avoid transforming this into a personal argument, life is too short and we are meant to enjoy it

 

[barjon]

doublesix,

I think apples is entitled to his views without having to justify them, after all, this is not Reuters, just a thread on a forum. He may be right, he may wrong, nobody really believes everything that is posted on a forum anyway. He is entitled to his opinion and you are entitled to disagree, but please avoid transforming this into a personal argument, life is too short and we are meant to enjoy it

thanks marktwain - fancy a job

good trading

jon

 

[Mornington Crescent]

mark / Barjon
I am perfectly happy with anyone expressing a personal view.

"On average the FTSE does decline after an expiry"

But when they state an opinion as if it was a fact, that's another matter.

Loose language is one of the problems with this board, imo

 

[sharetrader2]

Has anyone used twowayfutures.com ? They seem to be offering very tight spreads on the ftse futures(0.5 of a point), same tax advantages as spreadbetting