The FTSE

Im looking for a long position but the FTSE will have to move a lot further south if it wants me in
 
The FTSE Wednesday, 21st December 2005

Tuesday's results:

Open: 5539.
Close: 5547, up 8pts. A see-saw day with no clearly defined direction and one in which I'm glad I stayed away.

Range: 5524 - 5552. The FTSE stopped shy of the 550 point again today. It's trying hard, but at the moment it hasn't the solid momentum to sustain this pivotal point.

Last 5 trading days: up 40pts.

On the Month: up 124pts. Still about right for the month.

Dow: 10,805, down 30pts. It's dropped below my prediction of 830 by the end of the week, so I'm not sure whether it will rise tomorrow or Thursday if at all. Well see. Even so, the market is having little or no effect on the FTSE.

Last 5 trading days: down 16pts.

On the month: up 1pt. Well behind the FTSE's performance.

News items of note:
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - 'Prime Minister Tony Blair faced a barrage of criticism on Tuesday over the EU budget deal he brokered as European lawmakers said they could not accept it unless governments put up more cash.

Blair hit back in a rowdy European Parliament session by mocking British Eurosceptic critics in the assembly, accusing them of being stuck in a World War Two mentality.' - unlike his own, bogged down in a Iraqi fiasco. I can see this debate trailing well into the new year so no direct impact on the markets at the moment.

LONDON (Reuters) - 'All stores belonging to off-licence Unwins were closed and the company's 1,400 workers made redundant on Tuesday, administrators for the bankrupt firm said. KPMG, appointed administrator for Unwins after the company was formally declared bankrupt late on Monday, said all 350 stores had been shut with immediate effect.' - Saw this coming some 4 months ago and so did the market. No impact tomorrow.

LONDON (ShareCast) - 'Wall Street dragged itself out of the red just ahead of the London close, helping UK stocks remain in the blue, with miners, banks, utilities and supermarkets all showing gains.
Investors tucked into the food retailers on hopes of a bumper festive season. J Sainbury , Wm Morrison and Tesco were all ahead. Morrison announced the sale of another four former Safeway (NYSE: SWY - news) stores to Somerfield (LSE: SOF.L - news) for £15m.' - The miners were by far the main FTSE movers, and I think we'll be in for a shock in regards to High street Xmas turnover. Online shopping is beginning to take its toll, but we won't know the results until the end of Jan.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesday's was no clear indication either way. Wednesday, again no clear indication. The data was difficult to interpret, but from what I can see it favours a fall.

Companies reporting:

None.

Economic Data:

MPC vote Out; CBI distributive trades.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the DOW ended the day on another medium sized negative and of late its down turns have failed to turn the FTSE's head; charts have no clear indication but prefer a fall to a rise; miners continue to push the market forward and I'm thinking, at what point will they run out of steam!

Early gut feeling: it's close, it will either end up as evens or a medium drop.

Will I bet? Already have. I went for a Short prior to close of play. No bottom end but a 12 point rise will take me out of the market.

I'm off tomorrow so I'll be watching the markets.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK
 
Apples and Doublesix,

Your tussle has been interesting, you have both expressed explanations and reasons, but now is the time when all good traders should put aside historical comments and move on to more important matters.

I'm sure you are both talented in your market expertise, so lets see it displayed with regards to where the FTSE is headed.

I look forward to reading your prolific comments with interest.

Yours

UK
 
ukhero said:
Apples and Doublesix,

Your tussle has been interesting, you have both expressed explanations and reasons, but now is the time when all good traders should put aside historical comments and move on to more important matters.

I'm sure you are both talented in your market expertise, so lets see it displayed with regards to where the FTSE is headed.

I look forward to reading your prolific comments with interest.

Yours

UK


Well I'm up for the challenge, but must add that I'm off from Friday and will be skiing over the New Year, so won't be giving many updates. I can see DoubleSix saying I'm swerving already!!! :LOL: :LOL:


Any way on the Ftse :-


This mornings move is very positive taking the index very close to the Dec 7th high at 5574. I've been impressed recently by the 20-day average holding the market, in fact I said as much last week (go on, check back Double!! - it was Wednesday or Thursday I think). The upside momentum (I watch the 14-day RSI to monitor this) remains in place. Overall, still OK.

For intra-day Futures trading the open at 77.5 was above the R1 level, it was positive that the subsequent consolidation managed to hold above this R1 level at 70.5 (low so far today at 72.5). With the intra-day move today only being 10.5 points so far I would suggest there is every chance of an upwards push through the day up to R2 at 88.5 and most probably even higher.

If this changes through the day, I will try and post.

rgds
 
off short shortly....

dc2000 said:
close long then wait for another entry

going to average in a short position from here to the new year...ahead of Jan...anyone else still expecting a big pop above 5600?
 
dc2000 said:
Average in a short?? why

why..don't have time to fully day trade the ftse over the next week or so..so will leave some orders to open with stops and limits...why short....well I can't see the ftse not fillin some gaps after this latest pop...hopefully look to be short from an area of 5600-5625..at this point I just see more potential downside than upside going into January a typically bad month...we have just 6 trading days this year left.

as normal stand to be corrected....
 
Well that's my Short well and truly stuffed for a grand loss of 12pts.

Looking for an overstretch in the FTSE and I can not see it as yet.

Best put it down to a bad call and move on.


Apples, enjoy your skiing holiday. Break a leg! :LOL:


UK
 
Hi Downbytheriver

Now I understand FWIW your 5625 is my next target after 5604 this should come tomorrow I then have 5700 for end of year although this may carry over into Jan. At the moment I dont expect a fall in Jan more an early dip then sideways and slightly higher end of month just my thoughts
 
5700

dc2000 said:
Hi Downbytheriver

Now I understand FWIW your 5625 is my next target after 5604 this should come tomorrow I then have 5700 for end of year although this may carry over into Jan. At the moment I dont expect a fall in Jan more an early dip then sideways and slightly higher end of month just my thoughts

Ummm 5700...thats a big number..maybe I should wait until the end of the year to look at the short side..guess I best watch the action today and see what gives...a super strong close may require a change of plans...
 
FWIW my up day/down day count is at +27 which is consistent with last 2years but out of whack with the long term average-which is, on the year, 51% up days, or a surplus of about 5. As probabilities go,the amount of bogus money being washed through the system distorts calculations, so I'm expecting more forged greenbacks to pile into the market for a while yet, or as long as the Koreans keep printing them. sounds a bit like sour grapes, I know it's just that it's all unquantifiable at the moment, and the US/UK relationship looks odd to me.
 
a super strong close may require a change of plans...

I dont expect that either, what I do expect is 5604 in the next 2 hours and then fall into close
 
Top