The FTSE

[kriesau]

FTSE November EDSP was 5526 this morning which was 7.6% above the October EDSP of 5133. The October EDSP was also around 5% below the September EDSP which indicates how really volatile the market has been over the past 7 weeks.

Question is whether this volatility will continue in the run up to Christmas !

 

[dc2000]

I hope so I enjoy this bounce around stuff and Im looking for the FTSE to give me a windFALL soon

 

[downbytheriver7]

FTSE and DOW

I hope so I enjoy this bounce around stuff and Im looking for the FTSE to give me a windFALL soon

Seems to be step for step these days -so should be interesting when US markets are closed for thanksgiving. There is a big gap to 5480 and 5460 thats need to be filled over the next few sessions.

 

[ukhero]

Well, I hope you all did well today as the FTSE ran well beyond the 5500 mark, which was a sufficient enough leap to change my jam and bread to roast beef this coming Sunday lunch.

Looking forward to writing my Sunday column.

UK

 

[downbytheriver7]

Yes not too bad.

Well, I hope you all did well today as the FTSE ran well beyond the 5500 mark, which was a sufficient enough leap to change my jam and bread to roast beef this coming Sunday lunch.

Looking forward to writing my Sunday column.

UK

Actually quite a tricky day as if you were not long coming into the day you had too be brave and go short into the momentum. Today looks abit of a poor finish though on the old candle stick charts though, open high and close near the days low right bang on resistance. This morning seemed like abit of a panic on the under invested or short side of things. Back to the charts over the w/e.

 

[dc2000]

whats the betting we fill the lower one early Monday

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE Monday, 21st November 2005

Friday's results:

Open: 5460.

Close: 5498, up 38pts.

Range: 5460 - 5531. A heavy swing of 71pts in total and a 33pt drop from its daily high, which, to me, signifies a strong element of profit taking, but in general, the bulls still have the shop floor.

On the Month: up 171pts. On par.

Last 5 trading days: up 33pts.

Dow: 10,766, up another 46pts to consolidate its 700 position. This is a positive move which will be reflected in the FTSE early on in the coming week.

News items of note:

TimesOnline - 'ONE of Russia’s biggest steel groups, Novolipetsk Steel, is this week expected to announce a London listing that will value it at close to £6 billion. Company executives and advisers have been pre-marketing the group to City institutions in the past week, and are expected to say this week that the listing will take place next month.' - Good market news for December.

Also:

US and Euro rate hikes will threaten sterling, David Smith, Economics Editor. - 'IMMINENT rises in interest rates in Europe and America could leave the pound exposed to selling pressure, analysts say. If the pound falls too far, it could scupper hopes of rate cuts in Britain.'

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Friday's was no clear indication but did eer on the side of a 9pt drop! Monday, a medium rise.

Companies reporting:

No data at time of writing.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: The DOW’s leading the way, and given the right circumstances the FTSE will surely follow; no detrimental market news as of yet but what is out is good; charts state a rise; takeovers are still ringing the market bell.

Early gut feeling: a 72% chance of an early rise with a posibility of an end of play drop.

Will I bet? Rolling Thursdays long. I'm away early Monday morning so I'll be adjusting my position for a max 22pt gain/8 point loss from the 5498 point. Based on nothing more then experience, it's better to be sensible then greedy.

The week ahead: well, it nearly head butted 5535 [#411] on Friday, but will it rise again and move beyond this pivotal point come Monday? To help me out I've been reading a number of essays this week by prominent market analysis's and they all talk about an 'end of year rally,' but none of them say when the 'end' actually starts! So could Thursdays and Fridays rise be the beginning? Possible, but I'm not overly convinced. I'll keep my betting tight.

On the coming week: a max rise of 35 - 47pts.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

yours

UK

 

[mark twain uk]

well, the ftse refuses to behave and defied expectations again

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE Tuesday, 22nd November 2005

Monday's results:

Open: 5498.

Close: 5497, down 1pt. While the rest of the world marched forward the FTSE marked time.

Range: 5486 - 5509. What a limp day for the FTSE. Add to that, my Long cancelled at 5482!!!

On the Month: up 170pts. Slightly behind par.

Last 5 trading days: up 28pts. Considering the rest of the world, the FTSE is lagging well behind.

Dow: 10,820, up 53pts to move swiftly past the 700 mark and into the 800. Way to go DOW!

News items of note:

LONDON (ShareCast) - 'After spending much of the day in the red London's leading index finished little changed, giving up late gains as a weak Glaxo and easing property stocks cancelled retail sector gains.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Monday's stated a medium rise. Tuesday, still the same medium rise.

Companies reporting:

None

Economic news:

None.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: The DOW hit another mile stone today, reaching and then moving beyond to finish well over the 10800 mark. Same as yesterday [which didn't happen] this should spur the FTSE onward. No major news items at the moment. Charts depict a rise.

Early gut feeling: I favour a rise purely on the grounds of today's poor result and the rest of the markets healthy rises.

Will I bet? Annoyingly my Long cancelled so I'm out of the market. I will be placing a Long later tonight.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

yours

UK

 

[downbytheriver7]

Tommorrow

Given the action in the US markets today and the relative weakness in the FTSE I will be selling into the pop tommorrow and will look to go short. Wouldn't like to call the high but a short around the 5535-5550 mark will be ideal.

Any other views on tommorrow?

 

[ukhero]

Given the action in the US markets today and the relative weakness in the FTSE I will be selling into the pop tommorrow and will look to go short. Wouldn't like to call the high but a short around the 5535-5550 mark will be ideal.

Any other views on tommorrow?

I'll go with that.

I don't see the DOW doing much tomorrow, perhaps 10 -15 either way, but even so, as with your quote, I see the FTSE pushing on and hitting the 5541 mark.

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE Wednesday, 23rd November 2005

Tuesday's results:

Open: 5497.

Close: 5517, up 19pts. Well, it managed to climb over the 5500 mark. Although to the eye, it appeared be more of a snail traversing a crack in the pavement then a thoroughbred jumping a fence at the national. Will it ditch its riders, turnaround and head back home tomorrow, or will it click its heels and push on? My money is on the latter.

Range: 5497 - 5522. A positive move of 25pts.

On the Month: up 200pts. On par.

Last 5 trading days: up 78pts. Three up - two down.

Dow: 10,871, up 51pts. Is there no stopping this horse! A steady climb of 194pts in 4 days may be a bit much for this time of year. Will it continue to rise and tumble after thanksgiving? I think so.

News items of note:

Forbes.com - 'Oil prices neared $59 a barrel Tuesday as the early arrival of a winter storm in the Northeast boosted expectations for increased heating oil demand over the next few weeks.

Crude futures saw a second day of gains after sliding to five-month lows last week, though prices are still about 20 percent above year-ago levels. A barrel of light, sweet crude for January delivery added $1.05 to $58.75 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.' - And the same for the UK. With forecasts for heavy snow come Thursday we could see the likes of all the OIL related companies rising.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesday's stated a medium rise, direction was correct but short by 6pts. Wednesday, a debatable rise. Readers beware! My charting aptitude is not the best in the world.

Companies reporting:

CREST NICHOLSON
DSG
INMARSAT [should be interesting]
JOHNSON MARTLEY
PARAGON
TOMKINS

Inmarset and Paragon may rattle the market tomorrow.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: The DOW's rise will affect the FTSE tomorrow morning as it continues to roll forward; charts depict a debatable rise; no detrimental economic news; the Bulls still have the shop floor.

Early gut feeling: a rise.

Will I bet? Rolling my Long from Monday.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

yours

UK

 

[mark twain uk]

ukhero,
good work

downbytheriver
there are quite a few people that are prepared to go short around the 540-550 area, I missed an opportunity last night when the daily cash went over 540 for a brief moment

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE Thursday, 24th November 2005

Wednesday's results:

Open: 5517.

Close: 5531, up 14pts. This is its highest point since August 2001.

Range: 5407 - 5532. Same as yesterday, a gentle swing of 25pts.

On the Month: up 214pts. On par.

Last 5 trading days: up 84pts. Considering the time of year, I believe the market has reached its optimum for its five day run. We may see a slight dip, if not tomorrow - soon.

Dow: 10,916, up 44pts. That's five up days in a straight a row for a total of 239pts. Tomorrow is thanksgiving and Friday is looking favourite for a heavy dip.

News items of note:

Forbes.com - ' Better-than-expected consumer confidence and a drop in oil prices helped Wall Street extend its November rally Wednesday with modest gains in light pre-holiday trading. Investors were encouraged by the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index, which came in at 81.6, slightly higher than the 81 reading Wall Street expected. That could bode well as consumers head to the malls on Friday for the start of the holiday shopping season.

In addition, oil priced dropped after the Energy Department reported substantial increases in the nation's fuel stockpiles. A barrel of light crude was quoted at $58.60, down 24 cents, on the New York Mercantile Exchange.'

TimeOnline - 'On this side of the Atlantic, minutes from the Bank of England’s November meeting showed the Monetary Policy Committee voted nine-nil to keep rates unchanged at its November. A change was not even discussed.'

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesday's stated a debatable rise. Thursdays, a small dip before a rise.

Companies reporting:

BRISTISH LAND
EXPRO INTERNATIONAL
EUROMONEY INST.
GCAP
HALFORDS
KESA ELECTRICALS
ROTORK

An interesting mixture. Should add a small plus when the markets open.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: The DOW's rise will have a small but positive effect on the UK markets; Company results, in all, will be positive but will not provide a mass climb; charts depict a small dip; no economic news; the Bulls are thinning out and the bears are eager to show their new dance routines.

Early gut feeling: a small fall at the end of play.

Will I bet? No, and I've cancelled my Long.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

yours

UK

 

[downbytheriver7]

Reducing the short...

Well managed to average in yesterday to a short position around the 537 mark, will slowly reduce it over the day and probably reestablish the position if we get a bit of a bounce. Sideways or a pullback seems to be the order of the day which will set up the end of the year nicely for a big push up.

 

[ukhero]

Well managed to average in yesterday to a short position around the 537 mark, will slowly reduce it over the day and probably reestablish the position if we get a bit of a bounce. Sideways or a pullback seems to be the order of the day which will set up the end of the year nicely for a big push up.

As I write, it's 5508 and I anticipate it remaining within 7 pts of this mark throughout the rest of the day.

UK

 

[downbytheriver7]

Probably...I closed my short down around here, and have had a small nibble on the long side for a bounce. If 5503-5507 holds then will remain long until I can get some direction from the US markets as this seems to be the FTSE's pace setter at the moment. Gaps down seem to be at 5507, 5487 and 5465 and upwards around 5520 and 5534 so I will play in these ranges. A break of the days low and I will close the long.

 

[Baruch]

Probably...I closed my short down around here, and have had a small nibble on the long side for a bounce. If 5503-5507 holds then will remain long until I can get some direction from the US markets as this seems to be the FTSE's pace setter at the moment. Gaps down seem to be at 5507, 5487 and 5465 and upwards around 5520 and 5534 so I will play in these ranges. A break of the days low and I will close the long.

US closed today,,, :cheesy:

 

[downbytheriver7]

Yes I know the US markets are closed! Sorry I meant tommorrow as the day after thanksgiving is normally quite erratic.

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE Friday, 25th November 2005

Thursday's results:

Open: 5531.

Close: 5511, down 20pts. Not totally unexpected.

Range: 5499 - 5539. A swing of 40pts.

On the Month: up 194pts. Still on par.

Last 5 trading days: up 51pts.

Dow: Closed

News items of note:

None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Thursday's stated a small dip before a rise. Friday, a debatable rise.

Companies reporting:

Tesco [third quarter]

There's a strong possibility that the supermarkets results tomorrow may dictate the markets direction.

Economic data:

09:30 UK GDP (2nd Estimate) Q3 0.4% 0.4%
09:30 UK Bank of England Inflation Report [the one to watch]
14:45 US Jobless Claims (Week 19th/11/05) Nov 303k 315k

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: The DOW is still eating Turkey; charts are not clear. Tesco results and the economic data are the ones to watch.

Early gut feeling: A heavy fall if the economic data fails to bare ripe fruit.

Will I bet? No, not at open. I will be watching the markets closely, looking for a clearer guide as to its direction.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

yours

UK