The FTSE

Well im a newbie so still learning but...

I'm SB trading on the FTS March future - i think the FTSE is going to push on into the new year as,

I had been thinking about a long on the Nasdaq and Dow also but dont understand them as much so i sat and watched them rise from 1630 (+65) and 10600 (+380 :p ) respectively. So I think globally markets are moving out of recent trading ranges. Dow possible 11000 in a week?

As far as the UK goes, interest rate hikes look to be at an end, the housing market hasn't crashed and oil has cooled off. There seems to be liquidity in the system at present pushing prices on.

The thing i am unsure about at the moment is when to exit - right now based on the above im tempted to let the trade run til March (i normally exit trades after a few days, but reviewing my history had i left a trade on the nikkei a few more weeks i'd be rolling in it ;) ), but then i expect some profit taking in the market towards the year-end, December expiries etc so may have to take out before the year-end.

Anyone else any thoughts? :cheesy:
 
my thoughts....

briefly are...short sharp correction in the next 2 weeks, allowing those who missed the recent run up somewhat to go long..followed by a push higher to the year end, maybe 5600-5700 and then a more substantial back peddling/base building period in the first quarter of 06...my thoughts and views change regularly as the markets dictates...

but interestingly enough the VIX is at such a high/extreme reading not seen for a long time that a correction at-least on the US markets is only a matter of time...the VIX historically is quite a reliable indicator and seeing as the FTSE has been following the US markets recently i would imagine this would influence it...we'll see.
 
Slim Sladey said:
Well im a newbie so still learning but...

I'm SB trading on the FTS March future - i think the FTSE is going to push on into the new year as,

I had been thinking about a long on the Nasdaq and Dow also but dont understand them as much so i sat and watched them rise from 1630 (+65) and 10600 (+380 :p ) respectively. So I think globally markets are moving out of recent trading ranges. Dow possible 11000 in a week?

As far as the UK goes, interest rate hikes look to be at an end, the housing market hasn't crashed and oil has cooled off. There seems to be liquidity in the system at present pushing prices on.

The thing i am unsure about at the moment is when to exit - right now based on the above im tempted to let the trade run til March (i normally exit trades after a few days, but reviewing my history had i left a trade on the nikkei a few more weeks i'd be rolling in it ;) ), but then i expect some profit taking in the market towards the year-end, December expiries etc so may have to take out before the year-end.

Anyone else any thoughts? :cheesy:
Click to expand...

Slim Shadey, nice name. I'm sure I've heard it before! Your a footballer, right!

If the FTSE as a whole marches on and upward so will its futures. But profits / loss are dependent on entry and exit.

Dabbling in markets you're not familiar with is not recommended. Apart from the higher then average chance of getting one's fingers burnt is the lack of funds to strengthen / support, in your case, the FTSE futures. I'd consider paper trading the other markets for at least six months, unless, of course, you have sufficient funds to cover all options.

'As far as the UK goes...' I agree. It looks as if the worst is behind us. But I've seen it all before, we grow over confident in our speculation of a markets direction, yet the world continues to revolve and so does its troubles and woes; and thank heavens they do, otherwise the markets would never fluctuate.

Happy Trading

UK
 
Thanks for the comments

DBTR7 - I had been thinking fall back for a while few weeks ago but it has just keep going :!: Where do you get yor data for the VIX :?: - at present i use SB chart's, FT.com, CNBC and another SB site that has an economic diary.

UKH - Would love to be a footballer but have two left feet! :cheesy:

I should just clarify i normally trade DOW (accounts for about 25% of profits) aswell as FTSE. It's the Nasdaq i dont fully understand due to it having more constiuents, but would appear to be lower risk. Your point about waiting/learning is well made. Im now following the Nasdaq movement as closely as the FTSE, DOW but don't think i will trade until end Jan at earliest.

How do you guys trade (intraday,swing,position?) and how do you normally decide when to exit :?:

Also want to quickly mention the differential between brent and nymex has grown over last few days with US thanksgiving - am expecting this to narrow again back to recent norm, US down or UK up? - could be interesting for the indices :?:

Hope everyone's trading is going better than my xmas shopping - nearly lost an arm on saturday :eek:
 
The FTSE Monday, 28th November 2005

Friday's results:

Open: 5511.

Close: 5523, up 12pts.

Range: 5411 - 5531. A swing of 20pts and quite mild compared to the DOW's activities.

On the Month: up 206pts. Still on par.

Last 5 trading days: up 25pts.

Dow: 10931, up 15pts.

News items of note:

None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Friday stated a debatable rise. Monday, a rise.

Companies reporting:

BSS GROUP [I'm expecting less then positive results]
CAMBRIDGE ANTIBODY [looking good]
HOMESERVE

All pre Mkt. No shakers or makers that will turn the FTSE's head.

Economic data:

None for the UK.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: The DOW took the lead last week and the FTSE simply limped behind. Will it catch up this coming week? There's a strong possibility. Charts state a rise; no economic news to weaken the market;

The week ahead: There's a lot of companies reporting this coming week and based on historical data we will most likely see a rise Monday, Tuesday and Friday. Estimate: up 31pts for the week.

Early gut feeling: a shaky rise.

Will I bet? Yup.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

yours

UK
 
Statistics

Based on this years data. Did you know that Fridays and Mondays are the best good day to go long?

Historically:

Mondays have a 65% chance that the FTSE will rise.

Whereas, Fridays have a 71% chance.

The worst day of the year is Thursday, with a 40% chance that the FTSE will rise. Or, depending on which side your breads buttered, a 60% chance that the market will fall.

Just thought I'd throw that in.

Conversation and all.

I can hear the bears adjusting their shorts.

UK
 
problem is on mondays and fridays, futs are also up,so a lot of the points on ftse cant be traded.

in fact if it gaps at the open, you may lose money.

beware.
 
The FTSE Tuesday, 29th November 2005

Monday's results:

Open: 5523.

Close: 5477, down 46pts. I didn't see that coming! And here's a motley selection of the reasons why:

LONDON (ShareCast) - 'Tumbling mining and oil stocks sent London's leading index deep in to the red, cancelling earlier gains, while a weak Vodafone and losses on Wall Street also weighed.
Miners featured heavily among the losers, giving back some of their recent gains, with Anglo American (LSE: AAL.L - news - msgs) and BHP Billiton leading the slide. Weaker crude prices had the oil majors lower. US January crude tumbled $1.46 a barrel to $57.25 sending BP , Shell and BG into the red. Mobile phone colossus and index heavyweight Vodafone also succumbed to selling pressure after US broker Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH - news) removed the shares from its recommended list. '

Range: 5477 - 5554. A swing of 77pts.

On the Month: up 160pts. Slightly below par.

Last 5 trading days: down 20pts.

Dow: 10895, down 36pts. Not unexpected.

News items of note:

Herald Tribune - 'Gold is in a new bull market, approaching $500 an ounce for the first time since 1987, and there is talk that the move in the metal shows renewed fears about inflation. Gold bugs say it may show that people are starting to lose faith in central banks to preserve the value of paper currencies, while others see evidence of growing demand for gold jewelry as Asia grows richer.'

Further to the above: http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/11/25/business/wbmarket26.php

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Mondays stated a rise. Tuesday, no clear indicatation for tomorrow, but they edge on the side of a potential down turn for the next two weeks.

Companies reporting:

BARCLAYS [ I have ties with this company and therefore unable to comment]
COMPASS [don't expect a glowing report]
TOPSS TILES [ they may have overstretched themselves with their expansion policy]

All pre Mkt. No shakers or makers that will turn the FTSE's head.

Economic data:

Nationwide House Prices
Consumer Credit [may be Very bad]
Consumer Mortgages

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: The DOW's taken a beating today and as such it will effect the FTSE's opening; the FTSE has taken a too heavy a drop today considering all the circumstances; charts are unclear; companies and economic data point to a less then FTSE rally.

Early gut feeling: Yesterdays was for a shaky rise. For tomorrow, I don't realy know.

Will I bet? I got drunk last night and woke up too late to add my Long! I kicked myself when I observed that the market was at +20pts, and then thanked the gods when it tumbled past its opening call. I guess there's someone up there watching me. I'll make my decision early tomorrow.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

yours

UK
 
Thanks double six for your input.

Readers beware! My charting skills are not the best in the world.

If I was the charter for Christefer Columbus, he would have sailed the ocean and discovered France!

But charts are not the be all and end all. There are several factors which denote the FTSE's direction. As in all markets.

And experience has taught me that if I get it dramatically wrong, stay out of the market and observe.

And that's what I'll do.

UK
 
Going long here...

Anyone else seeing this as a dip rather than a big trend change? Would expect the footsie to close back over 5500 by the end of the week. Volume was light yesterday which was good news.
 
DoubleSix said:
and now we have a "bearish engulfing"

I guess you all know what that implies.
Click to expand...

If you look back over the 2 months we have had a couple of those, normally before a leg up ironically. Only being bias long or short when the mood suits I really don't see this as the start of a big bearish retracement.
 
"I see no reason why the FTSE could not trade back down to 5350 over the coming weeks before resuming the uptrend for a strong close to the year" Tom Hougaard yesterday.
 
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