The FTSE Tuesday, 15th November 2005
Mondays results:
Open: 5465.
Close: 5470, up 4pts. Not as high as I would have wished. But a plus is a plus.
Range: 5455 - 5485.
On the Month: up 152pts.
Last 5 trading days: up 10pts. There's a clue here somewhere! The market seems to be coiled up like an enormous spring ready to let go at any moment! Yer, right!
Dow: 10,697, up 11pts. Similar to the FTSE, it was exceptionaly docile today. Is this the calm before the storm? Or just a breather?
News items of note:
None at time of writing.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Mondays was no clear indication. Tuesday, a rise.
Companies reporting:
ACAMBIS
BABCOCK
BURBERRY
BUSINESS
EMAP
LUMINAR
NORTHERN FOODS
SCHRODERS
SMITHS
VODAFONE GROUP
VT GROUP
HOME DEPOT
STAPLES INC
Quite a mixed bag. Should make for an interesting market.
Also lots of economic data released at 9:30am tomorrow.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the DOW's minor rise may have a small but negative effect when the FTSE opens; no major market news but the economic data should add some market impetus; charts say a rise.
Early gut feeling: a 70% chance of a rise.
Will I bet? I'm carrying my Long over and into tomorrow.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
yours
UK
Mondays results:
Open: 5465.
Close: 5470, up 4pts. Not as high as I would have wished. But a plus is a plus.
Range: 5455 - 5485.
On the Month: up 152pts.
Last 5 trading days: up 10pts. There's a clue here somewhere! The market seems to be coiled up like an enormous spring ready to let go at any moment! Yer, right!
Dow: 10,697, up 11pts. Similar to the FTSE, it was exceptionaly docile today. Is this the calm before the storm? Or just a breather?
News items of note:
None at time of writing.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Mondays was no clear indication. Tuesday, a rise.
Companies reporting:
ACAMBIS
BABCOCK
BURBERRY
BUSINESS
EMAP
LUMINAR
NORTHERN FOODS
SCHRODERS
SMITHS
VODAFONE GROUP
VT GROUP
HOME DEPOT
STAPLES INC
Quite a mixed bag. Should make for an interesting market.
Also lots of economic data released at 9:30am tomorrow.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the DOW's minor rise may have a small but negative effect when the FTSE opens; no major market news but the economic data should add some market impetus; charts say a rise.
Early gut feeling: a 70% chance of a rise.
Will I bet? I'm carrying my Long over and into tomorrow.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
yours
UK
News just in:
LONDON (Reuters) - 'House prices fell at their weakest pace in over a year in the three months to October cushioned by a surge in new buyer enquiries, a report said on Tuesday, a sign that the market may be emerging from a year in the doldrums.
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said its closely-watched house prices balance rose sharply to -9 in October from -21 in the three months to September, with prices in London showing their first increase in almost 1-1/2 years.RICS said the Bank of England's August quarter-point interest rate cut had helped to engineer the biggest rise in new buyer enquiries in nearly two years.' - This is a long term plus for the Markets.
Uk
LONDON (Reuters) - 'House prices fell at their weakest pace in over a year in the three months to October cushioned by a surge in new buyer enquiries, a report said on Tuesday, a sign that the market may be emerging from a year in the doldrums.
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said its closely-watched house prices balance rose sharply to -9 in October from -21 in the three months to September, with prices in London showing their first increase in almost 1-1/2 years.RICS said the Bank of England's August quarter-point interest rate cut had helped to engineer the biggest rise in new buyer enquiries in nearly two years.' - This is a long term plus for the Markets.
Uk
downbytheriver7 said:
Not sure what you are talking about? All prices are quoted off the FTSE Future prices and arbitrage activity means that these trade very close to fair value. Fair value of a Future = index+cost of carry-fv of dividends.
FTSE only goes xd on a Wednesday and we always know which stocks are going ex and by how much, therefore never any surprise, therefore the FTSE Future is not affected by the dividends at all.
If you are saying that stocks tend not to lose all their dividends, therefore there is some 'lift' in the FTSE Future, then you are opening a can of worms - these kind of studies take theoriticians years to complete and the evidence is always mixed! It all depends on the present sentiment to each stock as it goes xd.
rgds
saj123 said:
Hi Saj,
so you are trying to buy a binary the day before and just hold it till expiry. Thus if you can find a commentator who is right 70% of the time then you'll clean up. . . . . .. .
great idea :- but a few problems :-
1) The night before the price is not 50/50, The price reflects peoples perceptions of what will happen, so will have Wall Street and any other news in the price, thus if WS was up 25 points and there had been a big positive number say from Intel, then expect a quote of 75/85 at 9:15pm.
2) The spread on the binaries is higher out of hours - expect around 10 points.
3) To make lots of money in binaries you need to deal in good size, this isn't possible, we've all tried, no company allows it (see other posts for this info) - so you'll be stuck with less than £10/pt, winning some, losing some, getting bored.
What you need to find is a commentator who is consistently right against the grain of the market - on a daily basis - sorry, but they do not exist !!
rgds
downbytheriver7
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apples10 said:
Thanks for the replies. What I am generally talking about is that although the FTSE index value in theory is not affected by dividends, realistically similarly to some splits etc, the actual underlying share price can tend to move back to the original prior price irrelevant of the corporate action. In such a case holding a short position over the ex-date can result in the position value staying roughly the same but you have incurred the dividend adjustment at a cost. So guess I am thinking about the second part of your response - so I'll leave that can of worms unopened. Cheers.
downbytheriver7
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long
Went long @ 5441 with a *very* tight stop at 5439 (the low of the day) and will look to potentially reverse my position if this is triggered.
Went long @ 5441 with a *very* tight stop at 5439 (the low of the day) and will look to potentially reverse my position if this is triggered.
downbytheriver7
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indeed
5420 becomes the next level now I guess on the downside.
dc2000 said:
5420 becomes the next level now I guess on the downside.
dc2000 said:
I was busy shorting the FTSE Mid-day and the hourlies on binaries + the DAX .. . . .so good morning!! Problem is the same happened y/day, then I gave it all back, and more in the afternoon -
Binexx are soooo slow today though and havn't given me all my p/l yet - probably a good thing!! Think I'll go for a long lunch!!
Agree with others here, key support now 5423, but I'd be ready for the snap back as the overall picture still looks positive to me.
rgds
downbytheriver7
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A healthy day...
Not bad really - scrapped a few points here and there with 5420 becoming the new support level. Anyone else thinking of additionally trading the US indices ahead thanksgiving next week? Long on the S&P seems a reasonable bet heading into the year end.
Not bad really - scrapped a few points here and there with 5420 becoming the new support level. Anyone else thinking of additionally trading the US indices ahead thanksgiving next week? Long on the S&P seems a reasonable bet heading into the year end.
9The FTSE Wednesday, 16th November 2005
Tuesdays results:
Open: 5470.
Close: 5439, down 30pts. Ouch! Well, this did surprise me. I'm down 24pts and looking somewhat dishevelled. I would have accepted an 8-12pt drop, but 30pts!!!
Range: 5424 - 5470.
On the Month: up 107pts.
Last 5 trading days: down 21pts.
Dow: 10,686, down 10pts.
News items of note:
TimesOnline - 'On a day when Vodafone has more than £9 billion wiped off its value, it was no surprise to see the FTSE 100 index tilting lower. - I don't believe it was solely this that pulled the FTSE lower.
Also:
'Falling petrol prices helped inflation inch lower in for the first time in more than a year last month increasing the likelihood that the Bank of England will move to cut interest rates by the spring.
The Office for National Statistics reported that the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) – the government’s preferred measure of inflation - rose by 2.3 per cent in the year to October, down from 2.5 per cent the previous month and lower than the increase predicted by analysts.
Importantly core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco also dropped – falling from 1.7 per cent in September to 1.6 per cent in October.' - Good news for the Markets.
FT.com - 'Inflation in the UK has fallen for the first time in more than a year, increasing the probability that the next move in interest rates will be down.
The annual consumer price index, which is the Bank of England’s target measure, fell from 2.5 per cent in September to a weaker than expected 2.3 per cent in October.
The lower than forecast pace of price rises, coupled with Monday’s sharp fall in factory gate inflation, virtually kills off the chances of an increase in the cost of borrowing for the foreseeable future.
The 2.3 per cent rate is above the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target, but after 12 consecutive months when prices either rose or were steady, the Bank’s monetary policy committee will be pleased for a sign that inflation may have peaked.' - Excellent news. So why didn't the FTSE react?
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesdays stated a rise! Wednesday, a weak possibility of a rise!
Companies reporting:
EMI
LAND SECURITIES
LONMIN
SAINSBURY [may be negative]
SCOTTISH & SOUTHERN
WYNDEHAM PRESS
APPLIED MATERIALS
Economic data:
09:30 UK Unemployment Oct 8.2 5.0 - [I say 6.2]
09:30 UK Average earnings Sep 4.2% 4.2% - [agree]
10:30 UK Bank of England Inflation Report - [I believe it will be good]
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the DOW's had a mixed day it won't help the UK market tomorrow; company and economic results should be positive in the main; chart data is debatable.
Early gut feeling: a 55% chance of a rise.
Will I bet? I'm still carrying my Long, and it aint that heavy.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
yours
UK
Tuesdays results:
Open: 5470.
Close: 5439, down 30pts. Ouch! Well, this did surprise me. I'm down 24pts and looking somewhat dishevelled. I would have accepted an 8-12pt drop, but 30pts!!!
Range: 5424 - 5470.
On the Month: up 107pts.
Last 5 trading days: down 21pts.
Dow: 10,686, down 10pts.
News items of note:
TimesOnline - 'On a day when Vodafone has more than £9 billion wiped off its value, it was no surprise to see the FTSE 100 index tilting lower. - I don't believe it was solely this that pulled the FTSE lower.
Also:
'Falling petrol prices helped inflation inch lower in for the first time in more than a year last month increasing the likelihood that the Bank of England will move to cut interest rates by the spring.
The Office for National Statistics reported that the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) – the government’s preferred measure of inflation - rose by 2.3 per cent in the year to October, down from 2.5 per cent the previous month and lower than the increase predicted by analysts.
Importantly core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco also dropped – falling from 1.7 per cent in September to 1.6 per cent in October.' - Good news for the Markets.
FT.com - 'Inflation in the UK has fallen for the first time in more than a year, increasing the probability that the next move in interest rates will be down.
The annual consumer price index, which is the Bank of England’s target measure, fell from 2.5 per cent in September to a weaker than expected 2.3 per cent in October.
The lower than forecast pace of price rises, coupled with Monday’s sharp fall in factory gate inflation, virtually kills off the chances of an increase in the cost of borrowing for the foreseeable future.
The 2.3 per cent rate is above the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target, but after 12 consecutive months when prices either rose or were steady, the Bank’s monetary policy committee will be pleased for a sign that inflation may have peaked.' - Excellent news. So why didn't the FTSE react?
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesdays stated a rise! Wednesday, a weak possibility of a rise!
Companies reporting:
EMI
LAND SECURITIES
LONMIN
SAINSBURY [may be negative]
SCOTTISH & SOUTHERN
WYNDEHAM PRESS
APPLIED MATERIALS
Economic data:
09:30 UK Unemployment Oct 8.2 5.0 - [I say 6.2]
09:30 UK Average earnings Sep 4.2% 4.2% - [agree]
10:30 UK Bank of England Inflation Report - [I believe it will be good]
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the DOW's had a mixed day it won't help the UK market tomorrow; company and economic results should be positive in the main; chart data is debatable.
Early gut feeling: a 55% chance of a rise.
Will I bet? I'm still carrying my Long, and it aint that heavy.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
yours
UK
