The FTSE Monday, 14th November 2005
Fridays results:
Open: 5439.
Close: 5465, up 41pts. As predicted, but, and to be honest, I expected it to rise 60 -70pts. Even so, the market pushed forward to a fresh 5 week high and has now almost recovered most of its October sell off.
Range: 5423 - 5468.
On the Month: up 148pts. It appears the market in falling in line with historical data for November in regards to years 1998 through to 2001. If so, the month will finish anywhere between 170 and 350pts up.
Last 5 trading days: up 42pts.
Dow: 10,686, up 45pts.
News items of note:
Sky News - 'Official figures this week are expected to show a record rise in bankruptcies from just under 36,000 last year to 46,000 this year.The steep rise is triggered not just by creditors but also by individuals taking advantage of more liberal bankruptcy laws.The
Financial Mail on Sunday says experts also blame the rising bankruptcy rate on an easy availability of credit over the past few years.'
Bloomberg - 'Stocks, buoyed by well-received earnings reports and lower oil prices, wrapped up their longest series of weekly gains since July.
"Earnings are still pretty good," said Kurt Wolfgruber, chief investment officer at OppenheimerFunds Inc. in New York, who oversees $155 billion. "It's going to be pretty tough to see anyone really going to try to push this down." He expects U.S. stock prices to rise another 5 to 10 percent by year-end.'
NEW YORK (Reuters) - 'U.S. stocks are poised for a rally this week as lower crude prices fuel investors' optimism that businesses and consumers will get a break from high energy costs and have more cash to spend this holiday season.'
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Friday stated a medium to a strong rise. Monday, no clear indication.
Companies reporting:
HSBC [should be OK]
O2 [might be a nice surprise here]
Old Mutual
Chrysalis [ should be Ok]
In all, not enough to add momentum to the market. But I have a gut feeling the bulls will come out to play tomorrow.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the DOW's rise will effect the FTSE tomorrow, although be it mildly; no clear defined direction from the charts; no market shattering news.
The week ahead: There's no less then 37 companies reporting this coming week, so there's a strong possibility that tomorrow will be a bull market, or, small to medium rises spread over the coming two days. In all, I believe this week has the capacity to challenge the 5500 barrier and, I'm being bold here, still have momentum to head butt 5535. As always, we will see.
Early gut feeling: a 60% chance of a rise.
Will I bet? I don't normally bet unless I'm 80% confident of the markets direction, but I believe this week, as a whole, will be up.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
yours
UK