rav700
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Ftsemad said:
I am of the same flavour as well, but for the last 3 weeks ftse has not behaved normal so dont really know. A lot depends upon crude today so it might come down later this after noon but on non trading ftse day for me I am afraid.
www.analyst-online.com
This site does tend to give you good ftse predictions
The FTSE Thursday, 29th September 2005
Wednesdays results:
Open: 5447
Close: 5495, up 47pts. I made no bet on Wednesday, and therefore, there are some who would say I missed a good rise. All I can say is, how many out there were so positive that the market would rise, by such a degree, as to take out a second mortgage!
Range: 5447 - 5494, a 47pt swing. Up big today, down small tomorrow?
Month: up 199pts; to date, this is well over on my prediction for September.
Dow: 10,473, up 16pts. Still calm.
News items of note:
Forbes. com - Associated Press. - 'A sharp jump in oil prices sent stocks narrowly lower Wednesday as investors looked past government data showing a reinvigorated industrial sector. Crude oil futures surged higher after the Energy Department reported a larger-than-expected drawdown in the nation's crude oil reserves, although the report also showed a surprise surplus in gasoline inventories. A barrel of light crude was quoted at $67, up $1.93, on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The report cost the market early gains that were spurred by the Commerce Department's bullish report on durable goods, big-ticket manufactured items made to last at least three years. Durable goods orders shot up 3.3 percent in August after falling 5.3 percent in July. Economists had expected just minimal gains.'
News.com - By Usha Lee McFarling, Times Staff Writer - 'Meteorologists examining the conditions that spawned hurricanes Rita and Katrina say there is a strong likelihood that another intense hurricane will occur in October.' - Too early a prediction to effect the markets. But if it does come, and on par with the previous two, it may be like the kiddies Big Bad Wolf story blowing the piggies house down; or more precise, will the American markets tumble! Watch the weather.
LONDON (ShareCast) - 'Surging miners and a strong showing from Far East focused banks had London's blue chip index at a new four-year high today, as traders shrugged of a profit warning from Compass.' - I'm surprised that oil related companies didn't rise and push the index higher. Perhaps they've hit there limit for now.
$67+. This rise could drag the Market down tomorrow, but to be fair, at this level, its rapidly loosing its fear factor.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: A weak possibility of a small fall.
Companies reporting: none that will effect the market.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: it looks the same as yesterday, but look what happened! We're coming up to the end of the month so are the buyers making up for lost time?
Gut feeling: Again, I can't see the FTSE doing much. But is there a lesson to be learned here. If all is quiet in the world of the FTSE, does it always rise?
Will I bet? No. I only bet when I'm confident of the markets direction.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues at to which way the FTSE may go.
yours
UK
Wednesdays results:
Open: 5447
Close: 5495, up 47pts. I made no bet on Wednesday, and therefore, there are some who would say I missed a good rise. All I can say is, how many out there were so positive that the market would rise, by such a degree, as to take out a second mortgage!
Range: 5447 - 5494, a 47pt swing. Up big today, down small tomorrow?
Month: up 199pts; to date, this is well over on my prediction for September.
Dow: 10,473, up 16pts. Still calm.
News items of note:
Forbes. com - Associated Press. - 'A sharp jump in oil prices sent stocks narrowly lower Wednesday as investors looked past government data showing a reinvigorated industrial sector. Crude oil futures surged higher after the Energy Department reported a larger-than-expected drawdown in the nation's crude oil reserves, although the report also showed a surprise surplus in gasoline inventories. A barrel of light crude was quoted at $67, up $1.93, on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The report cost the market early gains that were spurred by the Commerce Department's bullish report on durable goods, big-ticket manufactured items made to last at least three years. Durable goods orders shot up 3.3 percent in August after falling 5.3 percent in July. Economists had expected just minimal gains.'
News.com - By Usha Lee McFarling, Times Staff Writer - 'Meteorologists examining the conditions that spawned hurricanes Rita and Katrina say there is a strong likelihood that another intense hurricane will occur in October.' - Too early a prediction to effect the markets. But if it does come, and on par with the previous two, it may be like the kiddies Big Bad Wolf story blowing the piggies house down; or more precise, will the American markets tumble! Watch the weather.
LONDON (ShareCast) - 'Surging miners and a strong showing from Far East focused banks had London's blue chip index at a new four-year high today, as traders shrugged of a profit warning from Compass.' - I'm surprised that oil related companies didn't rise and push the index higher. Perhaps they've hit there limit for now.
$67+. This rise could drag the Market down tomorrow, but to be fair, at this level, its rapidly loosing its fear factor.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: A weak possibility of a small fall.
Companies reporting: none that will effect the market.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: it looks the same as yesterday, but look what happened! We're coming up to the end of the month so are the buyers making up for lost time?
Gut feeling: Again, I can't see the FTSE doing much. But is there a lesson to be learned here. If all is quiet in the world of the FTSE, does it always rise?
Will I bet? No. I only bet when I'm confident of the markets direction.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues at to which way the FTSE may go.
yours
UK
Euro_d said:
I shall take that on board for future situations that I debate over.
Yes, its difficult when your not trading throughout the day, as we know, the markets can change like the wind. Perhaps my situation will change in the coming year.
Yours
UK
To all,
I've a week off next week... YIPPPY!
Girlfirend will be away... YIPPPPY!
So I'll be day trading for a full five days... YIPPPPPY!
But I have to walk the dog four times a day, keep the house tidy, empty the bins, wash up.... GROAN!
Must remember to put my sensible hat on.
UK
I've a week off next week... YIPPPY!
Girlfirend will be away... YIPPPPY!
So I'll be day trading for a full five days... YIPPPPPY!
But I have to walk the dog four times a day, keep the house tidy, empty the bins, wash up.... GROAN!
Must remember to put my sensible hat on.
UK
rav700
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To be honest,
I dont know where the ftse bulls are coming from but they are definately out in dozens.
In the last year I aint seen ftse move like the way it has this month...I may be wrong but just seems that at some point it will have to take a break but when????
Is it a matter or time..I think now we are at a break it or make it stage and the overall movement for ftse has been excellent and it has definately exceeded the analysts expectations as well as mine...It is very hard for maket predictions in this kind of financial weather...So I agree totally with you UKhero....I am waiting for a particular market tren to form..The ftse has to run out of steam at some point
Trade only when you no the sun is shining or the rain is falling NOT WHEN THE RAINBOW IS OUT.......
I dont know where the ftse bulls are coming from but they are definately out in dozens.
In the last year I aint seen ftse move like the way it has this month...I may be wrong but just seems that at some point it will have to take a break but when????
Is it a matter or time..I think now we are at a break it or make it stage and the overall movement for ftse has been excellent and it has definately exceeded the analysts expectations as well as mine...It is very hard for maket predictions in this kind of financial weather...So I agree totally with you UKhero....I am waiting for a particular market tren to form..The ftse has to run out of steam at some point
Trade only when you no the sun is shining or the rain is falling NOT WHEN THE RAINBOW IS OUT.......
I follow the FTSE because its all I really know.
I agree, Rav700, its been a bitter month in terms of predicting the markets direction. But I'm a News man rather than charts [although I still use them] and I look for what will ruffle the FTSE's feathers; this month has mainly been dominated by News items that has sent the market in one direction or another. To be honest, I'm finding it difficult to predict at the moment so I'm leaning on historical data and charts.
In general we are in an up trend, so all things being even it will rise. Yesterday was void of any head butting news items and hence the large rise. If I'd been off work I would have laid a small up bet, easy said, I know.
Tomorrow is of the same ilk [at the moment] in regards to news. Nothing happening. But a large rise, historically, and for September, is followed by a small drop, 8 -17pts.
Its also interesting to know, historically, the last trading day of September has seen 6 large rises in the past ten years. Take note for this coming Friday.
In fact, I'm hoping Thursday is a down day which will add strength to the above comment.
yours
UK
I agree, Rav700, its been a bitter month in terms of predicting the markets direction. But I'm a News man rather than charts [although I still use them] and I look for what will ruffle the FTSE's feathers; this month has mainly been dominated by News items that has sent the market in one direction or another. To be honest, I'm finding it difficult to predict at the moment so I'm leaning on historical data and charts.
In general we are in an up trend, so all things being even it will rise. Yesterday was void of any head butting news items and hence the large rise. If I'd been off work I would have laid a small up bet, easy said, I know.
Tomorrow is of the same ilk [at the moment] in regards to news. Nothing happening. But a large rise, historically, and for September, is followed by a small drop, 8 -17pts.
Its also interesting to know, historically, the last trading day of September has seen 6 large rises in the past ten years. Take note for this coming Friday.
In fact, I'm hoping Thursday is a down day which will add strength to the above comment.
yours
UK
How right you all are.
September is normally a bear month and UKX is the proverbial powerhouse! Why? I certainly do not know, we are currently at the highs of autumn 2001 where it paused for a breather on its way down. 2005 has, so far taking into account 7 July and US natural disasters, been a very bullish year.
From a day trading view the last months have not been easy however, I must say that the triggers and support/resistance levels seem to be good each day.
For example we have res @ 5005 ish which has been tested twice so far.
long breakout was signalled at 4985 which proved to be support and breakout, anyone (I did not) would have found an easy 12 points.
The rest of the day, well, I am staying on the sidelines.
UK, OK, you have freedom and a weeks trading, don’t do it with a hangover!!! But anyway, enjoy it.
Best of luck to all
Dave
September is normally a bear month and UKX is the proverbial powerhouse! Why? I certainly do not know, we are currently at the highs of autumn 2001 where it paused for a breather on its way down. 2005 has, so far taking into account 7 July and US natural disasters, been a very bullish year.
From a day trading view the last months have not been easy however, I must say that the triggers and support/resistance levels seem to be good each day.
For example we have res @ 5005 ish which has been tested twice so far.
long breakout was signalled at 4985 which proved to be support and breakout, anyone (I did not) would have found an easy 12 points.
The rest of the day, well, I am staying on the sidelines.
UK, OK, you have freedom and a weeks trading, don’t do it with a hangover!!! But anyway, enjoy it.
Best of luck to all
Dave
UKhero - thanks - still need the disciplin of being sensible.
For today - I think we are going down to 13 and then back into small positive territory to finish off. Alternatively down to (-22). Want it to go back up after US open. We will see.
In the model I have faith
For today - I think we are going down to 13 and then back into small positive territory to finish off. Alternatively down to (-22). Want it to go back up after US open. We will see.
In the model I have faith
The FTSE Friday, 30th September 2005
Thursdays results:
Open: 5494
Close: 5478, down 16pts.
Range: 5467 - 5508, a 41pt swing.
Month: up 182pts; to date, this falls within my September prediction of 170pts. Tomorrow is the last trading day for the month.
Dow: 10,552, up 79pts.
News items of note:
TIMESONLINE - 'House prices continued to fall in September, pushing the annual rate of growth to its lowest level in nearly a decade, the UK’s biggest building society said today. In its latest monthly house price survey, the Nationwide found house prices were 0.2 per cent lower in September than August. That pushed the annual increase down to just 1.8 per cent - its lowest level since May 1996 – and significantly for first-time buyers, below the level of wage growth, meaning properties are becoming more affordable.' - This was probably the most single News item of note yesterday that caused the market to dip. It may also continue to effect the FTSE tomorrow.
READ: http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article315801.ece
-The News item above adds plenty of negatives for tomorrows and the coming month for the FTSE.
Oil: $66+. Still shuffling, but it has no additional impact at this price.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: An early rise followed by a down at the end of play.
Companies reporting: All is quiet.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: prior to the release of the above news items I favoured quite ardently a strong upward move. But the News will effect the market tomorrow. On the up side the DOW has changed from a donkey to a bucking stallion. This should add an early momentum to the UK market.
Gut feeling: I see an early rise and then a fall.
Will I bet? Its the last trading day so of course and so will many others. To wit, I had the opportunity and conviction to open a long late this afternoon - 5476, up 11pts. I do expect the market to rise and then fall. However, how I can tailor this bet should my thesis prove correct I've yet to decide.
Note my comments in a prior post in reference to the last trading day for September.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues at to which way the FTSE may go.
yours
UK
Thursdays results:
Open: 5494
Close: 5478, down 16pts.
Range: 5467 - 5508, a 41pt swing.
Month: up 182pts; to date, this falls within my September prediction of 170pts. Tomorrow is the last trading day for the month.
Dow: 10,552, up 79pts.
News items of note:
TIMESONLINE - 'House prices continued to fall in September, pushing the annual rate of growth to its lowest level in nearly a decade, the UK’s biggest building society said today. In its latest monthly house price survey, the Nationwide found house prices were 0.2 per cent lower in September than August. That pushed the annual increase down to just 1.8 per cent - its lowest level since May 1996 – and significantly for first-time buyers, below the level of wage growth, meaning properties are becoming more affordable.' - This was probably the most single News item of note yesterday that caused the market to dip. It may also continue to effect the FTSE tomorrow.
READ: http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article315801.ece
-The News item above adds plenty of negatives for tomorrows and the coming month for the FTSE.
Oil: $66+. Still shuffling, but it has no additional impact at this price.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: An early rise followed by a down at the end of play.
Companies reporting: All is quiet.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: prior to the release of the above news items I favoured quite ardently a strong upward move. But the News will effect the market tomorrow. On the up side the DOW has changed from a donkey to a bucking stallion. This should add an early momentum to the UK market.
Gut feeling: I see an early rise and then a fall.
Will I bet? Its the last trading day so of course and so will many others. To wit, I had the opportunity and conviction to open a long late this afternoon - 5476, up 11pts. I do expect the market to rise and then fall. However, how I can tailor this bet should my thesis prove correct I've yet to decide.
Note my comments in a prior post in reference to the last trading day for September.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues at to which way the FTSE may go.
yours
UK
Last edited:
rav700
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Hi Guys
Had enough of the dow jones kick in the last 2 days....
I am planning to go long on ......f*****k I have just seen the futures they are 29 points up
I have no comments at all.
I was going to say I will be going long on the Ftse but did naaaa.
It is at a heavy resistance point so I dont really know at this point...mmm doubts yes loads
I think ftse is on the verge of a correction only a matter of time....
I will be shorting now.
Rav
Happy trading
Had enough of the dow jones kick in the last 2 days....
I am planning to go long on ......f*****k I have just seen the futures they are 29 points up
I have no comments at all.
I was going to say I will be going long on the Ftse but did naaaa.
It is at a heavy resistance point so I dont really know at this point...mmm doubts yes loads
I think ftse is on the verge of a correction only a matter of time....
I will be shorting now.
Rav
Happy trading
Hi Rav, well done, I assume you went short at the break of support at 5490 ish?
I have not played today as the signals were somewhat confusing to my simple mind so decided to keep hands in the pockets!
IMHO and not too strongly, we are now at support 5475 ish and if broken to the downside we could see the next level 50 with a minor support @ 65.
As I said dont take too much notice as the signals are far from clear today,
Good luck and bon weekend to all,
Dave
I have not played today as the signals were somewhat confusing to my simple mind so decided to keep hands in the pockets!
IMHO and not too strongly, we are now at support 5475 ish and if broken to the downside we could see the next level 50 with a minor support @ 65.
As I said dont take too much notice as the signals are far from clear today,
Good luck and bon weekend to all,
Dave
Pattern Trading
Anyone use price bar patterns to trade the FTSE. I've attached a workbook to show the results of an Excel program that i've been working on. Hope you find it interesting and helpful.
rav700 said:To be honest,
I dont know where the ftse bulls are coming from but they are definately out in dozens.
In the last year I aint seen ftse move like the way it has this month...I may be wrong but just seems that at some point it will have to take a break but when????
Is it a matter or time..I think now we are at a break it or make it stage and the overall movement for ftse has been excellent and it has definately exceeded the analysts expectations as well as mine...It is very hard for maket predictions in this kind of financial weather...So I agree totally with you UKhero....I am waiting for a particular market tren to form..The ftse has to run out of steam at some point
Trade only when you no the sun is shining or the rain is falling NOT WHEN THE RAINBOW IS OUT.......
Anyone use price bar patterns to trade the FTSE. I've attached a workbook to show the results of an Excel program that i've been working on. Hope you find it interesting and helpful.
rav700
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mm intresting...you have quoted me so I guess you want me to say something....Yangs said:
Everyone has a set trading method some use TA some fundamentals...
I trade on a method called night before...
And so does UK hero and many others on this forum(I think)
I have a trading stratergy for ftse..study the night before and predict the next day.99% I enter as soon as the market opens...many do not agree with this method but that is how I do it...
For example Finspreads opens at 7:00 in the morning... I look at the futures and match my notes with people on this forum...well definately uk Hero and also look at a site called www.analyst-online.com after that I jump in
Today I went short at 5508 with a stop at 5520 and gained a total of 20 points and came out and closed my day....
Generally I tend to go for 5-6 point on the ftse at heavy £'s per point and pack up for the day.
The last week has been very hard to predict the ftse but...Friday was payoff...
I hope this helps...
Happy trading
rav700
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Thanks matey I went in at the open on 5508.....gut feeling and I knew that was 2 much for the ftse it 29 points.Initially I went to go long but then looked at the futures 29 point knew that it had to fall and also read uk hero's notes and thought it will fall at least 10 point and it must have been my lucky day bagged 20 points......Euro_d said:
That my weeks Ftse losses covered
Have a good weekend
From now on I am going to post what I am going to be trading
but not too the level of Uk hero.
I hope this helps..
Have a nice trading week
Next week a heavy week with a lot economic data out....
