The FTSE

[Yangs]

Thanks matey I went in at the open on 5508.....gut feeling and I knew that was 2 much for the ftse it 29 points.Initially I went to go long but then looked at the futures 29 point knew that it had to fall and also read uk hero's notes and thought it will fall at least 10 point and it must have been my lucky day bagged 20 points......
That my weeks Ftse losses covered
Have a good weekend
From now on I am going to post what I am going to be trading
but not too the level of Uk hero.
I hope this helps..

Have a nice trading week
Next week a heavy week with a lot economic data out....

20 points @ £10 nice one, not a bad days bit of work eh!
If you think the patterns will help, an you want me to post as and when they show, let me know.
I'm not trying to show off, just looking for a little feedback on things that you think would be good or more helpful.

John

 

[rav700]

20 points @ £10 nice one, not a bad days bit of work eh!
If you think the patterns will help, an you want me to post as and when they show, let me know.
I'm not trying to show off, just looking for a little feedback on things that you think would be good or more helpful.

John

You just go ahead mate every little helps

 

[Yangs]

You just go ahead mate every little helps

Km8, will do lol
A question, (maybe a daft one) can you set an order to buy or sell at market open price or do you have to watch and make the order when the market opens?

 

[rav700]

Km8, will do lol
A question, (maybe a daft one) can you set an order to buy or sell at market open price or do you have to watch and make the order when the market opens?

You have to place the order when the market opens. mate..I wake up at 6:45 and place my trades dot on seven.....hence there is not much market movement in the first 3 mins of market opening..only diff is the spreads i higher if you want to book any profit til 8:00..
Happy trading

 

[Yangs]

You have to place the order when the market opens. mate..I wake up at 6:45 and place my trades dot on seven.....hence there is not much market movement in the first 3 mins of market opening..only diff is the spreads i higher if you want to book any profit til 8:00..
Happy trading

Thought so. It would be good if you could set an order for market open eh?

 

[ukhero]

Historical Information relating to the FTSE. Or, for the Bear and Bull in you.

Lets look at October through the years. Isn't nostalgia interesting!

YEAR----OPEN----CLOSE ----RESULT----MARKET TYPE-------REMARK

1995-----3510-----3529--------+19---------Rising -----------------OJ Simpson is found not guilty

1996-----3954-----3979--------+25 --------Neutral-----------------The Dow closes above 6000 for the first time

1997-----5241-----4842------- -399--------Rising!------------------First grey hair

1998-----5024-----5438------- +414-------Rising-------------------Dinner at the Savoy

1999-----6034-----6255--------+221-------Rising-------------------Stock Markets crash!

2000-----6294-----6438--------+144-------Neutral------------------Remember January one!

2001-----4903-----5039--------+136-------Neutral------------------9/11

2002-----3721-----4039--------+318-------Down--------------------Discovery of Quasar [look it up]

2003-----4091-----4287--------+206-------Rising-------------------Concord makes it last commercial flight

2004-----4659-----4624---------- -35------ Rising-------------------Second grey hair

2005-----4477-------?----------------?----------?------------------------Pass the Rune Stones


In order to predict the coming month with a degree of certainty the first question to be asked is, 'what type of market are we in? ' If you answer that Million dollar question correctly [no dialling a friend] you'll have the market pinned.

Personally I think the market is changing from a rising to a neutral, and if I'm correct, bearing in mind the news of late, I see very little change. However, the American Markets are, in my view, looking somewhat bewildered. Therefore, should our American counterpart dress down a few thousand points in the coming month my comments within this post are null and void. Just thought I'd throw that in. Insurance against looking a complete tit, you might say.

Its also interesting to note that October is susceptible to a large and significant drop in the second week swiftly followed by an equal or even a double heavy rise in the third and forth.

In all, October should be interesting.

As always, if you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues at to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[saj123]

Rav 700 - wat is the advantage of going with finspreads rather than with IG?? - with IG on the ftse 100 the spread is only 4 points from 8am - i think with finspreads its a little higher. Also the software and layout for finspreads is pretty poor quality

 

[Euro_d]

Afternoon all, rare for me to be here at the weekend, but well.
Someone asked can you set up a trade before the market opens. The answer is yes (with D4F) set up a limit order and it will be filled at market open. BUT be aware that it is not protected and you cannot set a stop. Well you can but there are complications. Also on the FTSE the pre market is live. On the DAX it is not live so there is more chance of a quick profit.
Be aware it is a very risk way to play and you must be at your desk to watch what is happening.

The discussion of which SB co to use is not for this thread but IMHO there is no beating D4F, tight 2 point spread, rapid fills and superb charts.

OK, am off to look at tomorrow!
Dave

 

[Yangs]

Afternoon all, rare for me to be here at the weekend, but well.
Someone asked can you set up a trade before the market opens. The answer is yes (with D4F) set up a limit order and it will be filled at market open. BUT be aware that it is not protected and you cannot set a stop. Well you can but there are complications. Also on the FTSE the pre market is live. On the DAX it is not live so there is more chance of a quick profit.
Be aware it is a very risk way to play and you must be at your desk to watch what is happening.

The discussion of which SB co to use is not for this thread but IMHO there is no beating D4F, tight 2 point spread, rapid fills and superb charts.

OK, am off to look at tomorrow!
Dave

Cheers Dave, appreciated. Will look into D4F. I've posted a file on the thread Pattern Trading. See if its of any use to you.

ps: How do you show a link to a file you've previously uploaded on a different thread?

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE Monday, 3rd October 2005

Fridays results:

Open: 5478

Close: 5477, evens.

Range: 5462 - 5506, a 44pt swing and much like Thursdays results.

Well, the FTSE did pretty much as I expected. Annoyingly I couldn't close my position until later on in the day and only made 4pts.

Month: up 181pts; and I'd like to think that my September prediction of 170pts was pretty close to the mark.

Dow: 10,568, up 15pts. I did go short on Fridays DOW and I'm 28pts down. Ouch! I'm letting it run a little longer as I believe the market will dip. We will see.

News items of note:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - 'U.S. August consumer spending and income fell, partly due to Hurricane Katrina, and inflation edged up amid record oil prices, bolstering expectations the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates. The fall in spending came as energy prices pushed consumer inflation up 0.5 percent, the largest jump since September 1990, the Commerce Department said, Outside volatile food and energy costs, inflation as measured by the Fed's favorite gauge edged up 0.2 percent. Over the past year, so-called core inflation has climbed 2 percent, a tick faster than in the 12 months through July.' - This should have helped my short above on Friday but the markets reacted differently.

FT.com - 'The weakness of the UK economy was highlighted by a slip in UK consumer confidence, a CBI survey showing retail sales volumes falling at their fastest rate for 22 years and GDP growth sinking to its weakest for 12 years in the second quarter.' - It may be a bumpy ride for the FTSE during October.

LONDON (ShareCast) - 'Bank of England's interest rate survey takes centre stage this week, as the market awaits what is likely to be yet another hold, at 4.75%. Economic readings have given mixed ideas on the health of the economy with mortgage approvals continuing to rise, while the housing market itself fell for the second consecutive month in September. Recent retail sales data from the CBI revealed September sales growth at a 22 year low, while stalwart John Lewis said conditions were the toughest for 15 years. Of most interest to the MPC though will be the International Monetary Fund after it cut its forecast for UK economic growth to 1.9% this year and 2.2% in 2006, sharply lower than a previous estimate of 2.6% for both this year and next.' - All these news items point to a down-ward slide for the FTSE in October. It has to be said, how long can the FTSE defy gravity?

The following three links are in regards to oil and makes for an interesting read:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,16781689%5E2703,00.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4296812.stm

http://www.boston.com/news/world/africa/articles/2005/10/02/exxon_mobil_total_statoil_win_licenses/

The first two links provide a negative impact on the markets whereas the third is too little too late.

Did you know, BP and Shell, Europe's biggest oil companies account for about one-fifth of the whole FTSE 100!!!

Oil: $65+.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: A slow slide downward.

Companies reporting: Very few, no impact. Buyers will be looking for bargains.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: There's a lot of negative data out there that support a FTSE drop for the month; the first week of October historically sees the FTSE climbing. In all no clear view.

Gut feeling: None. Mondays are hard to predict.

Will I bet? No.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues at to which way the FTSE may go.

yours

UK

 

[rav700]

Rav 700 - wat is the advantage of going with finspreads rather than with IG?? - with IG on the ftse 100 the spread is only 4 points from 8am - i think with finspreads its a little higher. Also the software and layout for finspreads is pretty poor quality

The finspreads software is very poor I agree with all you comments mate.....
But I find that the finspreads beats all currency spreads.....thats all
But currencies is another board so I dont think I should go into much more detail on this...
Happy Trading mate...

Hi Uk hero ,
Once again thanks for your october data.
My views on this week are first 2 days will probably be bullish and then will turn bearish again from wednesday onwards..so this is close to your prediction for neutral
in the second and third week bearish .
And 4th week bullish leading to december.....

This week there is a lot economic data out be aware of the 3'oclock syndrome if there are any scalpers here......

Happy trading
Best of luck guys

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE Tuesday, 4th October 2005

Mondays results:

Open: 5477

Close: 5498, up 21pts.

Range: 5474- 5515, a 41pt movement. The FTSE appears to be struggling to clear and stay well clear of the 5,500 barrier.

Dow: 10,535, down 33pts. This helped my short from Friday. Phew!!!

News items of note:

LONDON (ShareCast) - UK manufacturing rose at its fastest pace for six months in September, according to the latest official survey. The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply said its purchasing managers' index rose to its highest level since March at 51.5 in September from 50.3 the month before. The output measure climbed to 52.9, the highest so far this year while new orders index rose for a fourth straight month to 54.1 in September. The better than expected reading gave further credence to the likelihood of the Bank of England keeping rate son hold at 4.50% this week.' -This is good news for the FTSE.

CNN.com - 'Oil major BP's subsidiary, Innovene, said on Monday it had reduced runs at its 220,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) Lavera refinery in France on Saturday due to a port strike.The plant could shut down completely by Wednesday if the strike continues.' - More doom and gloom, but the FTSE still marches on.

Did you know, BP and Shell, Europe's biggest oil companies, account for about one-fifth of the whole FTSE 100!!!

Oil: No data.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: a rise.

Companies reporting: Very few, no impact.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: all things being even we will see a rise; mixed news results; charts see a rise moderate rise.

Gut feeling: a rise.

Will I bet? Yup, a small long.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues at to which way the FTSE may go.

yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

Rav700,

Looks like we are reading from the same hyme book.

Yours

UK

 

[rav700]

Rav700,

Looks like we are reading from the same hyme book.

Yours

UK

Yes mate I agree....
So I guess you do roughly agree mate with my predics for the next month...
If yes I am half way there to being a ukhero......(a very long way to go)
Tommorow a re-test of 5510 on Bp Statement......
After that only god knows If it breaks 5520 expect it got to the 5532 mark but I think it will meet heavy resistance.
I will be long at 5501 for 10 points at least. with a short stop at 5515..This is my intraday trade.
And I will be short with a october contract on ftse at the highest point of the day with a stop at 5532.I expect the ftse to fall to.........(I am not to sure hence I am not giving figures) at least 100 to 150 points) might be wrong but at least 50 points by october 21st.
Take care
Happy trading

 

[ukhero]

Yes mate I agree....
So I guess you do roughly agree mate with my predics for the next month...
If yes I am half way there to being a ukhero......(a very long way to go)
Tommorow a re-test of 5510 on Bp Statement......
After that only god knows If it breaks 5520 expect it got to the 5532 mark but I think it will meet heavy resistance.
I will be long at 5501 for 10 points at least. with a short stop at 5515..This is my intraday trade.
And I will be short with a october contract on ftse at the highest point of the day with a stop at 5532.I expect the ftse to fall to.........(I am not to sure hence I am not giving figures) at least 100 to 150 points) might be wrong but at least 50 points by october 21st.
Take care
Happy trading

I don't think you've got that far to go.

I noted BP and there's no reason why its annual report shouldn’t be glowing. Look at the year its had, with the price of oil an all. But that alone will not shuffle the FTSE's feathers significantly to make it rise 20pts+. Over the past 3 months buyers have been snapping up Oil shares so I don't expect BP to make an over dramatic entrance. I could be wrong.

I'm principaly looking at the markets momentum. Takeovers are in the air; volume is up and the first week of October is generally considered a Bull week. The fall in the DOW today doesn't help but I'm still confident of a rise tomorrow for the FTSE.

Your going short on the FTSE for October! Tell me I've read that wrong, its far too early.

Yours

UK

 

[rav700]

I don't think you've got that far to go.

I noted BP and there's no reason why its annual report shouldn’t be glowing. Look at the year its had, with the price of oil an all. But that alone will not shuffle the FTSE's feathers significantly to make it rise 20pts+. Over the past 3 months buyers have been snapping up Oil shares so I don't expect BP to make an over dramatic entrance. I could be wrong.

I'm principaly looking at the markets momentum. Takeovers are in the air; volume is up and the first week of October is generally considered a Bull week. The fall in the DOW today doesn't help but I'm still confident of a rise tomorrow for the FTSE.

Your going short on the FTSE for October! Tell me I've read that wrong, its far too early.

Yours

UK

I took your comments on Bp and have made 13 point on Ftse today.
Thanks for your tips....
I thought that the market my get a boost on the upside but pheww...
Well I think I will retire for the day.....
Nice one mate..

Also re october contract....I am dont know why but I think that the ftse will fall pretty soon it is just a matter of time and I think anything above the 5510 would guarantee atleast a good 70 point to the down side by october.....
I think I will wait a bit though as you are the ftse guru

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE's down this morning.

Low: 5475. My entry: 5485

The FTSE is now at 5493 and not far off from where it started. It should hover around this area until the US markets open. Even so, I don't anticipate any major movement other then a 12pt shuffle either way.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE Wednesday, 5th October 2005

Tuesdays results:

Open: 5501

Close: 5494, down 7pts.

Range: 5475- 5501, a 26pt movement. The FTSE still fails to clear and stay clear and of that 5500 mark.

Dow: 10,441, down 94pts. That's one hell of a drop from the days high of 10,567. This will affect the FTSE early tomorrow morning.

News items of note:

Reuters -By Jennifer Coogan - 'U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday after comments about inflation by a Federal Reserve official sparked increased concern about rising interest rates and the impact they might have on business costs and consumer spending.' - The market appears to be very nervous.

LONDON (ShareCast) - 'London's blue chips remained stuck in the red as retailers, oil majors and insurers weighed, although a buoyant telecom sector helped the leading index finish off its worst levels. BP closed lower after warning that third quarter production is expected to be lower than the previous quarter, reflecting the impact of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in the Gulf of Mexico and the planned maintenance season, primarily in the North Sea.' - This was expected. The rigs, according to estimates, will take several months to be up and running to there pre Katrina levels.

Oil is dropping due to a reduction in demand.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: a dip.

Companies reporting: Very few, no impact.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: The FTSE is in a stage of unpredictability and is compounded by today's heavy drop with the DOW.

Gut feeling: based on what I've seen today, a drop.

Will I bet? experience is screaming 'unless it's blatantly obvious early in the morning, STAY OUT OF THE MARKET!'

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

yours

UK

 

[rav700]

The finspreads software is very poor I agree with all you comments mate.....
But I find that the finspreads beats all currency spreads.....thats all
But currencies is another board so I dont think I should go into much more detail on this...
Happy Trading mate...

Hi Uk hero ,
Once again thanks for your october data.
My views on this week are first 2 days will probably be bullish and then will turn bearish again from wednesday onwards..so this is close to your prediction for neutral
in the second and third week bearish .
And 4th week bullish leading to december.....

This week there is a lot economic data out be aware of the 3'oclock syndrome if there are any scalpers here......

Happy trading
Best of luck guys

Remember the predictions

 

[ukhero]

Yup.

So did you bet accordingly?

Me, I was caught out yesterday. Lost a third of last months profit. Any lessen to be learned, yes. Must remember to place a tighter stop loss.

Thankfully I've made 24pts this morning, but that's still not enough.

As I write the FTSE is down 61pts at 5433. Will it drop further is the million dollar question and one which I'm deliberating over. We'll have to see what hat our American cousins wear come 2pm.

Tomorrow doesn't look good either; grey skys and a possible downfall from: BoE interest rate decision (11:00). The market is nervous about this.

But on a brighter note, we also have: UK Aug manufacturing, industrial production (08:30) and UK Aug new construction orders (08:30). These should be positive.

In all, it should be another interesting 24hrs.

Yours

UK