The FTSE 2006

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Tuesday 18th April 2006

Last Thursday's results:
Close: 6029, up 28pts [0.48%].
Range: 5987 - 6033.

Last 5 TD: down 0.26%.
OTM: up 1.10%.

Note: when the market hit 5900 a little after 1230pm, GMT, the market went into overdrive. I guess the Bulls went home early leaving the bears to dance solo. And just as well, my FTSE 'Up on the day Binary' was looking somewhat battered.

Monday's DOW:
11073, down 63pts [0.57%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.41%.
OTM: -0.31%

Monday's S&P 500
1285.32, down 3.80pts [ 0.29%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.79%.
OTM: down 0.72%

News items of note:

Business.telegraph - 'Soaring bond yields signal trouble ahead.

Bond yields worldwide reached 12-month highs last week with the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bonds rising above 5 per cent for the first time in almost four years on Thursday. The latest selloff was prompted by fears that interest rates in the world's largest economy might rise further than expected.

Government bond prices around the globe have fallen markedly in the first quarter of this year, and the corresponding yields have surged higher. This follows signs of economic strength and concerns about inflation in the US, Japan and Europe, leading to worries that central banks will continue to increase interest rates in the coming months.'

Charts, and nothing but the charts: last Thursday's had no clear indication. And likewise Tuesdays have no indication either way.

The PoM System: -2.50, interpretation: favours a minor dip. Also recommends a 'No Bet.'

[The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.]

Companies reporting:
None

Note: Wednesday and Thursday are busy reporting days, and as such, we may see a rise tomorrow based on the anticipation of positive results.

Economic Data:
00:30 UK RICS House Prices Mar.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the American markets shuffled North early in the day only to finish face down on the trading floor at the last bell; expect the FTSE to open 5-9pts down; charts are unclear and a weak result from the PoM system; no company results and economic news is minor; gold, oil and copper prices are dominating the market at the moment which makes it exceptionally difficult to predict the FTSE's direction with any degree of accuracy.

Early gut feeling: Early fall, late rise.

Will I bet? At the moment it’s too close to a 50-50 call. I intend to sit on the fence until the market shows its true direction.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Wednesday 19th April 2006

Tuesday's results:
Close: 6044, up 14pts [0.24%].
Range: 6026 - 6056.

Last 5 TD: up 0.31%.
OTM: up 1.34%.

Tuesday's DOW:
11268, up 194pts [1.76%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.16%.
OTM: 1.45%

Tuesday's S&P 500
1307.65, up 22.33pts [ 1.79%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.87%.
OTM: 1.01%

News items of note:

Business.Telegraph - 'French car giant Peugeot-Citroen is to end production at one of its main UK factories with the loss of 2,300 jobs.
The factory at Ryton in Coventry will stop making the Peugeot 206 model next year.'

NEW YORK (Reuters) - 'U.S. stocks extended gains on Tuesday as minutes from the Federal Reserve's recent policy-setting meeting said the end of the Fed's interest rate raising cycle "was likely to be near."

Yahoo News - 'Motorists were warned of another summer of misery at the petrol pumps as the cost of oil spiralled to new highs amid growing international tensions.
Experts said that the average cost of a litre of diesel could break the £1 barrier this summer, while unleaded petrol was likely to get "very close".

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesdays had no clear indication either way. Wednesday’s favour a dip, and I don’t believe them!

The PoM System: +5.5, interpretation: favours a rise.

[The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.]

Companies reporting:
Associated British Foods
Carnival

Economic Data:
09:30 UK Bank of England Minutes

Areas to watch: Oil and miners.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: Has the tide turned? The results of the FOMC minutes were a catalist for todays American market surge, and the question to be asked is, have we turned the corner and hereafter a growing positive upward trend? Expect the FTSE to open up a wee tad in the morning; company results should be positive on the whole, but the BEM is the one to watch; charts favour a dip which conflicts with the PoM result.

Early gut feeling: a rise

Will I bet? It may prove difficult to enter the market at a decent level tomorrow morning, therefore, I'm considering an 'up on the day' binary.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Thursday 20th April 2006

Wednesday's results:
Close: 6089, up 454pts [0.76%].
Range: 6044 - 6100.

Last 5 TD: up 0.38%.
OTM: up 2.10%.

Wednesday's DOW:
11278, up 10pts [0.09%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.71%.
OTM: 1.54%

Wednesday's S&P 500
1309.93, up 2.28pts [ 0.17%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.82%.
OTM: 1.19%

News items of note:

Business Telegraph - 'The International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for 2006 global economic growth to 4.9pc, up from 4.3pc in its outlook six months ago.

The IMF, in its semi-annual World Economic Outlook, said growth is finally spreading from the US to other parts of the industrialised world, but that yawning global imbalances are storing up trouble further ahead.

The report predicted growth in global gross domestic product of 4.9pc this year. In September, the IMF forecast global expansion of 4.3pc.

For 2007, the IMF sees world growth slowing a touch to 4.7pc, which is up from the forecast of 4.4pc given last time.'

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesday’s favour a dip, and I didn't believe them! Thursdays indicate a rise.

The PoM System: -1.5, interpretation: favours a dip.

[The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.]

Companies reporting:
BP
Cairn Energy
Persimmon
Prudential
Rio Tinto
Xstrata

Economic Data:
None.

Areas to watch: Oil and miners.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the American markets ended the day in positive terrority; the FTSE should open up at evens tomorrow; charts indicate a rise which conflicts with the PoM's weak dip; in general, company results should be positive on the whole, but this has alreasdy been factored in by the market, no economic news.

Early gut feeling: neutral at the moment.

Will I bet? No.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[downbytheriver7]

After the long w/e and umm well against the big bullish background I have nibbled a short @ 6104 target 5960. Aside from that looking to buy any major dips.

 

[downbytheriver7]

After the long w/e and umm well against the big bullish background I have nibbled a short @ 6104 target 5960. Aside from that looking to buy any major dips.

oops meant a target of 6040 dont know where 5960 came up - would be nice though!

 

[downbytheriver7]

oops meant a target of 6040 dont know where 5960 came up - would be nice though!

Ended up closing out @ 6075 so that I can go home flat. Options expiration tommorrow should provide some fun. Also traded in and out of the Mini Spot Gold today - big jump today, not that I caught it all. Still looking for a big down day in the next few trading days.

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Friday 21st April 2006

Wednesday's results:
Close: 6081, down 8pts [0.14%].
Range: 6074 - 6113.

Last 5 TD: up 0.38%.
OTM: up 1.07%.

Thursday's DOW:
11342, up 64pts [0.57%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.91%.
OTM: 2.11%

Thursday's S&P 500
1311.46, up 1.53pts [ 0.12%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.81%.
OTM: 1.30%

News items of note:

Britain's inflation rate for March has slowed to its weakest in over a year, rekindling expectations the next move in interest rates could be down.

The Office for National Statistics said consumer prices rose 0.2pc last month to put the annual rate at 1.8pc, down from the 2pc recorded in February and predicted by economists for March.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Thursdays indicated a rise. Friday's a rise.

The PoM System: +2.25, interpretation: favours a minor rise.

[The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.]

Companies reporting:
Pearson

Economic Data:
None.

Expiry:
FTSE April.

Areas to watch: Oil and miners.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the American markets continue to surge ahead but they did little to promt the FTSE to do the same; the strong drop in oil and copper prices dragged the Oil and mining related companies southward, and I believe there's a little more to come; charts favour a rise and likewise the PoM favours a minor rise; company results are tame and no economic news; historicaly [YTD] Friday's have seen 11 up days vesus 3 down.

Early gut feeling: neutral.

Will I bet? Should have gone with the PoM's weak dip today, arrr well! Will be watching Oil and copper prices; if positive will go Long.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

Ended up closing out @ 6075 so that I can go home flat. Options expiration tommorrow should provide some fun. Also traded in and out of the Mini Spot Gold today - big jump today, not that I caught it all. Still looking for a big down day in the next few trading days.

DBTR7,


Yes, the FTSE as a whole should be interesting tomorrow.

Follow the Oil, Copper and Gold myself as they have a direct relation to various sectors of the Index. I keep standing with my toes curled on the edge of trading with gold, but never commit. I guess it's the chicken in me, or perhaps it's the fact that I've no long term data at hand and experience tells me not go into an unfamiliar market just because it looks good. But I agree, it’s due a tumble; and looking now, I see it’s down 19.0pts, perhaps it’s happened. Arr well!

There's still a copper shortage and demand is high. Oil, I believe, will hit $75 by April end. Sadly, I don't have the funds, or more importantly the reserves, to stray into other markets no matter how tempting they might be. But wish you well.

Good trading.


UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Monday 24th April 2006

Friday's results:
Close: 6132, up 51pts [0.84%].
Range: 6137 - 6077.

Last 5 TD: up 2.18% [top heavy signal here].
OTM: up 2.80%.

Friday's DOW:
11347, up 4pts [0.04%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.88%.
OTM: 2.15%

Friday's S&P 500
1311.28, down 0.18pts [ 0.01%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.72%.
OTM: 1.29%

News items of note:

None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Friday's indicated a rise. Monday's border on little movement / a drop.

The PoM System: -4.25, interpretation: favours a moderate drop.

[The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.]

Companies reporting:
None.
Busy week ahead.

Economic Data:
09:30 UK Retail Sales Mar 0.5% 0.2%
09:30 UK Public Finances (PSNCR) GBPbn.

Areas to watch: Oil and miners.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: although the FTSE surged ahead on Friday the American markets failed to find any impitous and what we may have Monday is either a pause for breath or a small decline back to 6100; no comapny results but the week ahead is busy; economic data is the one to watch; charts and PoM agree with a dip

Early gut feeling: small early rise followed by a dip.

Will I bet? I'm hoping for the Oil and miners to reverse, this will add strength to my data. In all, intend to go Short.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[rav700]

The FTSE, Monday 24th April 2006

Friday's results:
Close: 6132, up 51pts [0.84%].
Range: 6137 - 6077.

Last 5 TD: up 2.18% [top heavy signal here].
OTM: up 2.80%.

Friday's DOW:
11347, up 4pts [0.04%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.88%.
OTM: 2.15%

Friday's S&P 500
1311.28, down 0.18pts [ 0.01%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.72%.
OTM: 1.29%

News items of note:

None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Friday's indicated a rise. Monday's border on little movement / a drop.

The PoM System: -4.25, interpretation: favours a moderate drop.

[The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.]

Companies reporting:
None.
Busy week ahead.

Economic Data:
09:30 UK Retail Sales Mar 0.5% 0.2%
09:30 UK Public Finances (PSNCR) GBPbn.

Areas to watch: Oil and miners.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: although the FTSE surged ahead on Friday the American markets failed to find any impitous and what we may have Monday is either a pause for breath or a small decline back to 6100; no comapny results but the week ahead is busy; economic data is the one to watch; charts and PoM agree with a dip

Early gut feeling: small early rise followed by a dip.

Will I bet? I'm hoping for the Oil and miners to reverse, this will add strength to my data. In all, intend to go Short.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

Hi guys,

I am back and getting ready to hit the tracks again...
For this week I am planning to short oil and I will be shorting it all guns blazing...I know this a ftse threads hence I do not wish to right to much but after all my analysis.If you want to make money this week.It has come to my attention that a lot of hedge funds will be executing their oil gold and silver shorts this week which is positive for most of the indices.....Best of luck all to all the traders on this forum..and I would just like to say thank you to uk hero who has been a consistent supplier of quality info and data

Take care happy trading

 

[kewbridge]

Hear! Hear! Rav
UK Hero is a, er, hero . Thanx hero!

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Tuesday 25th April 2006

Monday's results:
Close: 6098, down 30pts [0.55%]. Anticipated.
Range: 6136 - 6098.

Last 5 TD: up 1.15%.
OTM: up 2.25%.

In all, no signals. We are in the realms of neutrality, and as such, it can easily go either way.

Monday's DOW:
11347, up 11pts [0.10%].

Last 5 TD: up 2.36%. Warning signal here, but the only one, and as such, not enough by itself. Overall, data says its slightly above average.
OTM: 2.05%

Monday's S&P 500
1308.11, down 3.17pts [ 0.24%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.77%. Neutral.
OTM: 1.05%

News items of note:

DETROIT (Reuters) - 'Ford Motor Co. shares fell more than 5 percent on Monday to a three-year low after analysts raised questions about its future earnings potential in the wake of a $1.19 billion first-quarter loss.' - Not sure if there will be any knock-on effect here in the UK. We've lost Rover; TVR is going under; the motor industry in the UK is looking somewhat battered. Note: one of the very early signs of a recessation is the lack of new car sales.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Monday's bordered on little movement / a drop. Tuesday's a drop.

The PoM System: - 0.25, interpretation: favours a weak dip.

[The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.]

Companies reporting:
Anglo American
Arm Holdings
BP
Capita
Northern
Tesco

Economic Data:
11:00 UK CBI Industrial trends
Areas to watch: Oil and miners.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: profit takers are out in force and there's a strong possibility that the same format will be followed tomorrow; charts show a strong decline and the PoM a weak dip; the American markets have stagnated today and I expect the same tomorrow; companies reporting have already been factored in and therefore, again, profit takers may drag the FTSE south; economic results are tame; Oil and miners are still the one's to watch as the market is pretty much neutral and the slightest adverse or positive move will dramatically shift the market in one direction or another.

Early gut feeling: Neutral.

Will I bet? No thanks. No clear indication eitherway. You can chase the market if you like, but not me. There will be other days when the market is more predictable.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

Thanks for the confidence vote Rav700 and Kewbridge.

Rav700, I'd hold back on your Oil Short for a while longer. Although Oil is unfairly high at $74, I still think it will creep a touch higher before it dips, say 75 - 75.40. I could be wrong, so go with yer gut, as they say.

Good trading.

Ulysses Kingstable Hero. UK for short.

 

[rav700]

Thanks for the confidence vote Rav700 and Kewbridge.

Rav700, I'd hold back on your Oil Short for a while longer. Although Oil is unfairly high at $74, I still think it will creep a touch higher before it dips, say 75 - 75.40. I could be wrong, so go with yer gut, as they say.

Good trading.

Ulysses Kingstable Hero. UK for short.

I have 78 points in all on oil my targe was atleast 50 am very comfortable with this profit.
Thanks for you advice though...

I am considering opening a new Thread called Trades only...which will consist of Realtime trades ie from all angles of the market---Commodities,Major indices and Forex...
What do you think...I think that if you are damn sure about a mondy making even why not share it with all....what do you say matey...

 

[downbytheriver7]

I am considering opening a new Thread called Trades only...which will consist of Realtime trades ie from all angles of the market---Commodities,Major indices and Forex...
What do you think...I think that if you are damn sure about a mondy making even why not share it with all....what do you say matey...

Sounds interesting - why not.

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Wednesday 26th April 2006

Tuesday's results:
Close: 6090, down 8pts [0.14%].
Range: 6136 - 6098.

Last 5 TD: up 0.77%.
OTM: up 2.11%.

Tuesday's DOW:
11283, down 53pts [0.47%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.13%.
OTM: 1.58%

Tuesday's S&P 500
1301.74, down 6.37pts [ 0.49%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.45%.
OTM: 0.56%.

News items of note:

FT.com - 'Copper, nickel and zinc charged to yet more record highs as the rally in base metals gained renewed momentum on Tuesday.

Three-month copper smashed through the $7,000 level to peak at $7,230 a tonne in LME trading after news of strike action at the Falconbridge Lomas Bay mine in Chile provided bulls with a fresh reason to chase prices higher. Inventories have sunk to 2½ days of current global consumption and supply concerns have intensified as strike action continues at Grupo Mexico’s facilities.

Dealers said nothing fundamental had changed but because the market was so tight any news about supply disruptions was feeding immediately into prices.

Three-month copper eased back to $7,175 a tonne, an increase of $386 or 5.7 per cent on Monday’s close.

Trading on COMEX in New York was suspended for 15 minutes after the benchmark copper contract surged by its daily trading limit of 20 cents.'

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesday's stated a drop. Likewise for Wednesday.

The PoM System: + 0.25, interpretation: favours a weak rise.

[The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.]

Companies reporting:
Amvecap
BHP Billiton
Imperial Tobacco
Legal and General
Reuters
Schroders

Economic Data:
09:30 UK GDP

Areas to watch: Oil and miners.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the market is exceptionaly nervouse about moving and staying forward, at the slightest hessitancy it retracts, and it will continue in this manner until either A) Oil and metal commodities retract from there abnormaly high levels, or, B) there's a major sell off, in which case we'll slide back to 5990. The American markets moved South again today, and although I see some light at the end of the tunnel come tomorrow it may not be enough to stir the FTSE beyond 6115; charts predict a continuation of today, whereas the PoM predicts the possibility of a rise [and a slim one at that]; companies are mixed and should be positive on the whole; economic results will not effect the market unless dire.

The one cherry in the ointment is, so far this year the FTSE has risen 11 out of 16 Wednesdays and the DOW 14.

Early gut feeling: Neutral.

Will I bet? Nope! All three markets stand at neutral and so it's the fence for me.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[Chocolate]

Great post as ever! I've noticed that Wednesday thing on the DOW myself, but annoyingly never traded (and therefore never profited) on it.

 

[ukhero]

I have 78 points in all on oil my targe was atleast 50 am very comfortable with this profit.
Thanks for you advice though...

I am considering opening a new Thread called Trades only...which will consist of Realtime trades ie from all angles of the market---Commodities,Major indices and Forex...
What do you think...I think that if you are damn sure about a mondy making even why not share it with all....what do you say matey...

Rav 700,

This is a good idea for a thread if the comments within are backed up with sound evidence and basic advice, if not, readers will be influenced to stray into unfamiliar markets with little and no knowledge of when to cash in / get out.

Here's an example of what I'm trying to say: ' Copper is at an all time high due to strikes in Mexico and general shortage! But it's about to reverse! I'm going Short at £10 per point.'

Some may be influenced by that comment not knowing that the spread can be up to 35pts [depending on which SP company used] and the price can fluctuate as much as a 1000pts! So Spread betters be where.

I would stress, if you start the forum, a number of rules need to be adhered too in regards to what and how to post.

On the light side, I wonder if copper Will fall tomorrow!

Good luck.

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Thursday 27th April 2006

Wednesdays:
Close: 6104, up 17pts [0.29%].
Range: 6126 - 6086.

Last 5 TD: up 0.24%.
OTM: up 2.34%.

Wednesday's DOW:
11354, up 71pts [0.63%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.67%.
OTM: 2.21%

Wednesday's S&P 500
1305.41, up 3.67pts [0.28%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.34%.
OTM: 0.84%.

News items of note:

None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesday's stated a drop and the same again for Thursday.

The PoM System: + 3.75, interpretation: favours a moderate rise.

[The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.]

Companies reporting:
Amvescap
Astrazeneca
Aviva
Barclays
British American Tobacco
Glaxosmithkline

Economic Data:
UK none.
US jobless claims.

Areas to watch: Oil and miners.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the American markets changed slipers for walking shoes today but there decent rise did little to shuffle the FTSE; expect the FTSE to open up between 2-8pts in the morning; charts predict another laconic day, but the PoM system predicts a decent possibility of a moderate rise; a lot of company big guns declaring tomorrow and I'm concerned about a big sell off, which, if it happens, will greatly unbalence the market; no ecconomic results for the UK but America has the jobless claims, which historically ties down there markets until released.

Early gut feeling: Mmmm. It's looking more and more like a day for gamblers. Spin a coin guys!

Will I bet? Entered the market late in the day with three seperate Longs. Although now, I'm not overly confident. We are at the tail end of the month coming up to a Bank Holiday, and the first of the month will be on a Tuesday. Historicaly these are all negitives. On the flip side, I believe oil will slip a touch further south, copper prices will continue to rise and the market sentiment will be positive.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[downbytheriver7]

Wooah of a cliff or what. Gone a fairly big long @ 6050 had a very small long from 6099 and also gone long the NDX @ 1699. Thinking ole Microsoft might get things going today. Tight stops as any more downside will break some trend lines and the week could close out look pretty messy.