The Final Holy Grail Journal Discussion Thread

[brettus]

Re: The final Holy Grail!

No trend in EUR/USD that I can see, for example.

It's in a downtrend cant deny that. As long as he sold the bounces he would be alright. Isnt he long right now?

 

[meanreversion]

Re: The final Holy Grail!

Yes, long EUR/USD, short USD/CAD and long GBP/USD. Chocs away !

 

[Black Swan]

Re: The final Holy Grail!

Yes, long EUR/USD, short USD/CAD and long GBP/USD. Chocs away !

hmmm....fwiw I'm still long on the loonie**, short EU/USD and short cable, however, he's trading 'sans' stop. Not how most of us would trade but if it works for him and he's in *early* (according to his edge etc) then who knows ...

**long USD/CAD...not long cad v usd

 

[meanreversion]

Re: The final Holy Grail!

Only thing with trading "sans" is how do you know how much of your account you are risking?

 

[brettus]

Re: The final Holy Grail!

hmmm....fwiw I'm still long on the loonie, short EU/USD and short cable, however, he's trading 'sans' stop. Not how most of us would trade but if it works for him and he's in *early* (according to his edge etc) then who knows ...

EURUSD could go back down to 1.24 again before it goes back 1.30 again. It depends on how many bullets he has, but i wouldnt want to be long on the euro right now. He has 3 positions to look after and if they all go against him and considering hes selling USD mainly at the moment.

 

[Black Swan]

Re: The final Holy Grail!

Only thing with trading "sans" is how do you know how much of your account you are risking?

No idea what size he's trading/risking. tbh not *that* interested beyond the fact that the thread is keeping me partly amused whilst waiting for my pairs to swing...

 

[meanreversion]

Re: The final Holy Grail!

I recall when I first started programming strategies, I found one which looked awesome and immediately started trading it. It was very profitable for a few weeks. The only issue was I was trading off 4hr bars and my data went back about three months only. I found another data supplier which went back 3-4 years and wow, did that change my opinion. The equity curve was almost a straight line down until the most recent months, when the strategy had started to perform.

It's possible he has not backtested far enough (I seem to recall from the original thread he mentions a few months).

 

[brettus]

Re: The final Holy Grail!

I recall when I first started programming strategies, I found one which looked awesome and immediately started trading it. It was very profitable for a few weeks. The only issue was I was trading off 4hr bars and my data went back about three months only. I found another data supplier which went back 3-4 years and wow, did that change my opinion. The equity curve was almost a straight line down until the most recent months, when the strategy had started to perform

It's possible he has not backtested far enough (I seem to recall from the original thread he mentions a few months).

He backtested back to 22nd April when he first started trading.

 

[Black Swan]

Re: The final Holy Grail!

EURUSD could go back down to 1.24 again before it goes back 1.30 again. It depends on how many bullets he has, but i wouldnt want to be long on the euro right now. He has 3 positions to look after and if they all go against him and considering hes selling USD mainly at the moment.

Be nice, I'm (finally) getting to like the "sittin rather than doin" bit of trading...

 

[wackypete2]

Re: The final Holy Grail!

I recall when I first started programming strategies, I found one which looked awesome and immediately started trading it. It was very profitable for a few weeks. The only issue was I was trading off 4hr bars and my data went back about three months only. I found another data supplier which went back 3-4 years and wow, did that change my opinion. The equity curve was almost a straight line down until the most recent months, when the strategy had started to perform.

It's possible he has not backtested far enough (I seem to recall from the original thread he mentions a few months).

Oh, man..have I been there, done that, and invented ugly!

Peter

 

[JRP2891]

Re: The final Holy Grail!

I ask this because so many traders set the bar so low, they insist that a 5% return per month is good when in reality it's a joke (unless the capital employed is huge which brings its own set of problems)...I'd expect to sell that car inside 2 weeks and make a grand; 20% return in 2 weeks not 4 weeks...If you have £100K speculating in the markets (not invested/ing) you must be aiming for 20% return per month...minimum...

I can't say i agree with you on your quoted figures. 20% a month minimum is simply not possible or realistic with certain ways of trading such as medium/long term position trading or trend following. If you can achieve those numbers well done, however in my opinion traders should focus on absolute returns with their own strategy within their own risk profile.

 

[Black Swan]

Re: The final Holy Grail!

I can't say i agree with you on your quoted figures. 20% a month minimum is simply not possible or realistic with certain ways of trading such as medium/long term position trading or trend following. If you can achieve those numbers well done, however in my opinion traders should focus on absolute returns with their own strategy within their own risk profile.

A well respected guy called Phil Newton reckons (reckoned in the dim and distant past) you only need a grand to make a grand a month...you obviously could never agree with this. But that's OK here's a thing, if you have an account of 5K you only need to make 47 quid a day to make a grand return per month - 20%. Sorry to say this (actually I'm not sorry at all) but if you can't achieve 50 quid a day on a 5K account then trading aint for you...
My last imput on this subject..floor is yours etc...

 

[meanreversion]

Re: The final Holy Grail!

By reducing it to small numbers, you make it sound easy ... it's a slightly specious way of attempting to make a point.

20 pct a month is 240 pct a year (without compounding), I've never heard of anyone make those kind of returns.

Do you ever have a flat month? If so, what do you attempt to do the following month, make 40 pct? Or are your returns +60, -20, +30, that kind of thing?

 

[JRP2891]

Re: The final Holy Grail!

A well respected guy called Phil Newton reckons (reckoned in the dim and distant past) you only need a grand to make a grand a month...you obviously could never agree with this. But that's OK here's a thing, if you have an account of 5K you only need to make 47 quid a day to make a grand return per month - 20%. Sorry to say this (actually I'm not sorry at all) but if you can't achieve 50 quid a day on a 5K account then trading aint for you...
My last imput on this subject..floor is yours etc...

Like i said in my previous post, if you can make 20% every month well done to you (plural). However i think it's very unwise to listen to someone on a forum with no proven credentials, who tells everyone to give up trading if they can't make 20% minimum every month. Ridiculous is more the word that comes to mind. I prefer to focus on my own strategy and bottom line, and not what anyone else is saying. 9 times out of 10, the so called trading guru is not even net profitable anyway.

 

[meanreversion]

Re: The final Holy Grail!

If I was making 20 pct a month, I'd be too busy dancing with young chickies on my yacht in the Mediterranean to post on this website, no offence to t2w..

 

[LiamH]

Re: The final Holy Grail!

If I was making 20 pct a month, I'd be too busy dancing with young chickies on my yacht in the Mediterranean to post on this website, no offence to t2w..

You would only have a yacht on the med if you had compounded you 20% monthly return... I believe BS had mentioned he doesn't compound his profits, just withdraws them.

Either way, 20% per month is only doable with leverage so my question to Black Swan is... How much leverage are you using to obtain a consistent 20% per month? And what kind of drawdown do you generally go through each month?

 

[meanreversion]

Re: The final Holy Grail!

You would only have a yacht on the med if you had compounded you 20% monthly return... I believe BS had mentioned he doesn't compound his profits, just withdraws them.

Either way, 20% per month is only doable with leverage so my question to Black Swan is... How much leverage are you using to obtain a consistent 20% per month? And what kind of drawdown do you generally go through each month?

I started another thread about monthly return and drawdown just to see how different people approach it. It's very rare for people to talk about drawdown on this website (Black Swan has not mentioned drawdown or losses once). Obviously there are going to be times when the markets are not favourable, so - for example - if the target is 20 pct a month and one has a couple of flat months, is it then required to earn 60 pct the third month?

 

[meanreversion]

Re: The final Holy Grail!

Why the obsession with win rate anyway? You can have fewer than 30 pct winners and still make money, this is true for most trend systems.

 

[brettus]

Re: The final Holy Grail!

Why the obsession with win rate anyway? You can have fewer than 30 pct winners and still make money, this is true for most trend systems.

No1 will make 20% every month over the course of more than a year...

 

[pozzyp]

Re: The final Holy Grail!

Why the obsession with win rate anyway? You can have fewer than 30 pct winners and still make money, this is true for most trend systems.

Very true I have seen Trend traders here that take ages to position themselves on a move which can also prove quite costly. But when they catch a wave they comp into it and build a monster position that pays very nicely.