Best Thread The 3 Duck's Trading System

[smbtnt]

Opportunities

A few opps this morning on the following: GBPJPY, EURJPY, GBPCHF - all profitable.

USD/JPY and USDCHF - in negative territory but not stopped out....yet.

Combining local support /resistance with 3 ducks offering lucrative opps and is turning into a robust strategy.
Nice one CC!

 

[jayjay121]

what happens if everyone starts using this strategy?............will it still be profitable?



jason

 

[ampro]

what happens if everyone starts using this strategy?............will it still be profitable?

I doubt that will be an immediate problem, judging by the wide (& oft wacky) variety of interpretation it appears to be attracting across the forums.

Considering it’s primary role is that of “guide or confirmer” rather than a sole entry-trade management facility, I’d guess there will be as many differing entries/exits as there are folks trading it.

 

[shadowninja]

I doubt that will be an immediate problem, judging by the wide (& oft wacky) variety of interpretation it appears to be attracting across the forums.

From my understanding, this is a one-a-day strategy and not to be used aggressively across the board. I missed an opportunity earlier today because I was busy on gbp/usd but otherwise, there hasn't been any that have a nice setup, according to the original method.

 

[TheBramble]

what happens if everyone starts using this strategy?............will it still be profitable?

As per ampro's comment, few are using it.

It will take a couple more on this thread to start using it as suggested before we start seeing a noticeable impact on the $3 Trillion/day flow...

 

[BSD]

I agree with the points made, I also think that another issue is that most people will jump ship at the first inevitable string of losing trades and go searching for the next holy grail.

Any system can and will eventually have 10 or 20 losing trades in a row straight out of outlierland, and that's the point where the wheat gets firmly seperated from the chaff.

Bloody marvelous ;-)

 

[smbtnt]

From my understanding, this is a one-a-day strategy and not to be used aggressively across the board. I missed an opportunity earlier today because I was busy on gbp/usd but otherwise, there hasn't been any that have a nice setup, according to the original method.

I feel we are interpreting the strategy differently. A good day thus far, can post a few pics if requested.

 

[ampro]

Here’s a pretty good & interesting example on today’s Cable action of the discretionary usage which this set-up can offer.

Prices have remained North of the 4 hour moving average since late September.

It’s printed higher highs & lows on the 240min off the 1.9900 leg & registered an outside 4 hourly bar into today’s London shift, maintaining said peak & trough behaviour, whilst reacting off that same 4 hourly mov avg.

Your 5min activity has mirrored the higher timeframe behaviour today, printing well behaved peak/trough headway into the BoE Int Rates chatter.

So, given we got bearings & price action behaviour from the higher timeframe map, & we also see the lower 2 moving averages looming on the radar via this 5min frame, do we wait for price to print another high on the screen & actually cross these accompanying 60&5min averages, or hit the pedal & climb on at c2.0340??

There are those who will wait for the literal & visual lines to be penetrated before initiating their orders, (therefore, waiting for a pullback), & those who might use their experience & knowledge of similar price activity & fire off a long, after the rates news – whilst glancing idly at the Captain’s strat guidelines to confirm.

Whose right & whose wrong??!!

Whether the trade is being used to gain a foothold into a potentially more (lengthy) lucrative shunt, or merely a probing late intraday punt to test the appetite of Cable Bulls is immaterial. It will still be traded according to individual tastes!

And as the Captain has repeatedly stated: "use the strat as an accompanyment to your ongoing market knowledge & expertise"

 

[shadowninja]

On the website, he says "We are now on the 5 min chart and we are looking to sell when price crosses below the 60 sma. For extra confirmation we should let prices break the last low on the 5 min chart." which means not jumping immediately the price breaches the SMA line.

 

[ampro]

Or vice versa for longs - which is in line with the chart example above. And of course, you're quite correct if you're intending executing to the exact letter of the law.

I was actually highlighting an example of how (some) folks have been, or indeed could, use the guidelines of his structure to plot their potential trades utilizing the 3 primary timeframe references.

Strip away the 60sma's from the 240, 60 & 5min charts & look at the above example again on a naked chart. What do you have?

What exactly is this strategy encouraging you to observe?

nb: There was an ( more appropriate?) entry on Geppy (depending on your risk appetite ahead of tomorrow's Payroll print) this afternoon, if you're intent on executing via the 5min high-low break rule.

Whether you'd want to leg into it as London closes shop for the day is another issue altogether.

 

[shadowninja]

De-feathered ducks?

Yes, I know what you mean but I've done similar things in the past, taking a strategy for my own and changing it to the point where it just isn't as profitable (read: lost money while the author continued to earn money).

 

[Captain Currency]

Here’s a pretty good & interesting example on today’s Cable action of the discretionary usage which this set-up can offer.

Prices have remained North of the 4 hour moving average since late September.

It’s printed higher highs & lows on the 240min off the 1.9900 leg & registered an outside 4 hourly bar into today’s London shift, maintaining said peak & trough behaviour, whilst reacting off that same 4 hourly mov avg.

Your 5min activity has mirrored the higher timeframe behaviour today, printing well behaved peak/trough headway into the BoE Int Rates chatter.

So, given we got bearings & price action behaviour from the higher timeframe map, & we also see the lower 2 moving averages looming on the radar via this 5min frame, do we wait for price to print another high on the screen & actually cross these accompanying 60&5min averages, or hit the pedal & climb on at c2.0340??

There are those who will wait for the literal & visual lines to be penetrated before initiating their orders, (therefore, waiting for a pullback), & those who might use their experience & knowledge of similar price activity & fire off a long, after the rates news – whilst glancing idly at the Captain’s strat guidelines to confirm.

Whose right & whose wrong??!!

Whether the trade is being used to gain a foothold into a potentially more (lengthy) lucrative shunt, or merely a probing late intraday punt to test the appetite of Cable Bulls is immaterial. It will still be traded according to individual tastes!

And as the Captain has repeatedly stated: "use the strat as an accompanyment to your ongoing market knowledge & expertise"

Hello Ampro,

Great thinking! I love to see traders thinking outside of the box. As you've asked the question ' Whose right & whose wrong??!!" I think you already know the answer
There answer(s) I would give you are: If you where to follow the "system" to the word, you would wait for price to be above all 3 sma's. As I've said a few times before, I use the system more as a guide in addition to my own market knowledge.

So would I have bought in the area show on your chart? Ummmmm, firstly what I see is prices using the 4hr sma almost as support around 2.0272 - good sign if your bullish! Secondly I see that the current price is below the 1hr sma - which makes a lot of sence because the 4hr chart had retraced the previous few candles. Thirdly prices are making HH & HL on the 5min chart while above its sma. Now for the first time in a while I really feel that cable can go either way, a real 50/50 trade (yes I know all trades are 50/50 but note my word FEEL). What would be in the back of my mind would be - how do I know that the retracement is over? after all if prices are below the 1hr sma but above the 4hr sma that would probably mean that the 4hr chart is retracing!!

So personally I did not buy cable today, does that mean I'm a rule follower to the word? Defo no - some rules get in MY way of winning.

This is very important what I am going to say next - I was just answering ampro question as honestly as poss and just sharing what thought would be going through my head at that point in time. Im not saying to do X, Y or Z, If you where to follow the system close enought to the word, with good MM, I believe you would make more than you lose. Having spoken to ampro a few times, I believe she is a good trader and I think she is just pushing the boundaries a bit, which is good to see. For the other traders here who confess themselves to being newbies or inbetweenies - follow the system the best you can as described in post 1 using your own market knowledge and common sence then one day when you are as good as ampro you may push the boundaries just a little bit.

Thanks for asking the question ampro, it certainely a healthy topic!!


Kind Regards,

 

[Captain Currency]

One of the trade set-up I was looking at doing today (eur.usd) was when Trichet was speaking. The 4hr and Ihr chart had current prices below their sma's so I was looking to sell a move south on the 5min chart and a break of the low for that extra bit. Iam always just a bit cautious aroun news and judging by the lows on the 4hrs chart, I knew my potential target was only 1.1 I passed on this trade, it worked but was it worth the risk??? I did'nt think so. You can also see how price rallied up quickly after it hit the lows. Choppy!

 

[shadowninja]

That's the thing: I am still a newbie hence, based on previous experience, am trying to stick to the rules.

 

[Captain Currency]

That's the thing: I am still a newbie hence, based on previous experience, am trying to stick to the rules.

Hello shadoninja,

I think when you are starting out you do need guidelines and rules, so yes good for you, do your best to follow them. I then think when you have a bit/lot of trading experience under your belt the rules become a bit flexible.

Kind Regards,

 

[ampro]

Yes, I know what you mean but I've done similar things in the past, taking a strategy for my own and changing it to the point where it just isn't as profitable (read: lost money while the author continued to earn money).

Sure, sensible attitude to adopt

I think I may have slightly de-railed the train, & for that I apologize.

This is a pretty neat thread & on reflection, ought to remain honest to the original guidelines for exactly the reasons you've highlighted.

Sorry for steering the content off course folks.

Keep the faith

 

[Captain Currency]

Sure, sensible attitude to adopt

I think I may have slightly de-railed the train, & for that I apologize.

This is a pretty neat thread & on reflection, ought to remain honest to the original guidelines for exactly the reasons you've highlighted.

Sorry for steering the content off course folks.

Keep the faith

LOL ampro, you almost got me to a break a rule on the system.


Carpe Diem

 

[Mark R]

which pair??

Hi everyone,

this is a great thread and as a newbie to currencies I am grateful for the advice given so far and the useful posts on it

My previous request for help on MM probably shows that Im concentrating on managing a trade rather than being obsessed with entry signals-identifying and trading with the trend seems to be the best way of increasing the chances of it going in the right direction, the rest is trying to maximise gain/minimise loss- its the ratio of the one to the other that seems to be the difference between overall profit/loss

One practical point occurs to me and its this- whenever a chart appears here showing how the trade could have mapped out-ie after the event-I see it- very occasionally I have been there and got in, but more often I have been tracking another pair and missed it completely!

I tend to look through a selection of pairs first thing in the morning and identify a couple that are looking like probable trades-

To make this easier I have the timefrmaes set up on a 1 hour chart-to get an overall view of whats happening

This tends to be from a selction of about 10 possibles that I have set up in metatrader(which I have recently downloaded)

During the day I tend to track my "shortlist" and leave the rest which means I tend to miss moves on pairs Ive been patiently ignoring.

How do the rest of you track potentials- do you scan a long list throughout the day? do you only trade a very small number of pairs? cable only?

I appreciate that this has a lot to do with available time and styles but wondered how the rest of you were applying the system?

Any advice, again gratefully received

kind regards,

mark

 

[TheBramble]

Mark, the FX markets are largely driven by which part of the planet is 'up'.

JPY 00:00-09:00
EUR/GBP 08:00-17:00
USD 13:00-22:00
(all times GMT)

Of course, there is no cut-off, and there's trading going on across all the majors (and most crosses) 24 hours, but you probably want to hit your markets when they're 'busy'

If you bear in mind nearly 90% of all FX trades involve the USD followed by EUR, you've already cut down those you really need to keep an eye on in any one of those timeslots.

Also generally the middle of the week is the busiest time, Monday’s can be good, but a distinct tailing off toward the end of the week.

All of this should be taken with the overall caveat of ‘In General’.

 

[Depth Trade]

I don't see the pips.

I can give you 10 reasons this Strat. will never make money.


DT