Best Thread The 3 Duck's Trading System

[marketbreaker]

Marketbreaker's post above raises a question for me.

Although price was above the 240m 60sma (long) and above the 60m 60sma it was coming down towards the 60m 60sma and a prior low ... not leaving the 60m sma in an upwards direction. If that was a valid trade then any time price goes through the 5m 60sma while the other two smas are below price would be valid. Is it?

Hello nine

I think in Captain's strategy, he did not mention having the SMAs be in the up (for long) or down (for short) direction, or angle. However, he did mention that for long positions to be taken, price has to be above the 60EMAs on 4H, 1H and 5M time frames. Crosses on the 5M time frame, if met at first with the price being above the 60EMAs on the 4H and 1H time frame, can (not must) be taken.

Cheers
M

 

[shadowninja]

+38 pts on GBP/Euro.

I think it's safer to buy in the direction of the trend. I was watching ones where the price broke through counter to the trend and the push-through wasn't very good or immediately doubled back. This is why I scanned all the major pairs and opted for GBP/Euro at 10.15am GMT. Note that this is based on my own limited experience as an amateur trader, not the opinions of Captain Currency.

I have set a challenge for myself with the 3 Ducks system (well, my Audi system cos I'm stupid and lazy): to turn £20k into £40k.

28/09/07: GBP/USD - £3800 (£100/pt)
01/10/2007: Euro/Yen - £3800 (£100/pt)
02/10/2007: GBP/Euro - £1900 (£50/pt: wasn't feeling so sure about the movement)
Cash Balance: £29500

(Tradindex test account, unfortunately; I don't have the balls to risk £20k like that.)

 

[marketbreaker]

Watching USD/CHF now ... waiting for the 4h to actually close above the MA before taking an entry. We may be able to get a bid at 1.1720, but let's see.

Entered with stop at 1.1718. Take profit is left open.

 

[Captain Currency]

Marketbreaker's post above raises a question for me.

Although price was above the 240m 60sma (long) and above the 60m 60sma it was coming down towards the 60m 60sma and a prior low ... not leaving the 60m sma in an upwards direction. If that was a valid trade then any time price goes through the 5m 60sma while the other two smas are below price would be valid. Is it?

Hello Nine,

Do you mean above in the last sentence of your post? Dont really follow it sorry

I think the first valid "signal" on cable today is this set-up, all 3 time-frame sma's are above (buy signals) The 1hr sma has been tested and at one pint prices where below that sma, but now prices have crossed back above the 1 hrs sma and have now crossed above the sma on the 5min chart and broke the high on the 5min chart foe extra confirmation.


I think marketbreakers origional trade may have been taken in the Asian session which is not a great time to trade.

As I've said a few million times before, I use the system as a guide in addition to my own market knowledge. With a lot of news out this week and some pairs overbought, I may be a bit cautious! know what I mean?

 

[marketbreaker]

Hello Nine,
Do you mean above in the last sentence of your post? Dont really follow it sorry

Captain, I think Nine meant "below". SMAs below price, means price above SMA
I'm not sure if I should avoid trading during Asian hours, as there may still be some good trades to be taken. What I should have done was avoid the transition hours.

Here's the original trade with the original actions taken ... would've been a profitable trade if I took it in the full London hours.

 

[Captain Currency]

+38 pts on GBP/Euro.

I think it's safer to buy in the direction of the trend. I was watching ones where the price broke through counter to the trend and the push-through wasn't very good or immediately doubled back. This is why I scanned all the major pairs and opted for GBP/Euro at 10.15am GMT. Note that this is based on my own limited experience as an amateur trader, not the opinions of Captain Currency.

I have set a challenge for myself with the 3 Ducks system (well, my Audi system cos I'm stupid and lazy): to turn £20k into £40k.

28/09/07: GBP/USD - £3800 (£100/pt)
01/10/2007: Euro/Yen - £3800 (£100/pt)
02/10/2007: GBP/Euro - £1900 (£50/pt: wasn't feeling so sure about the movement)
Cash Balance: £29500

(Tradindex test account, unfortunately; I don't have the balls to risk £20k like that.)

LOL, hello shadowninja,

Well done on the pip gain, but I think you should change your name to MADMAD FX!

 

[marketbreaker]

Captain Currency did mention that this strategy works best for EUR/USD and GBP/USD. I pulled out the bloomberg and did some simple correlation in excel on historical 4H, 1H and 5M data on the G7s.

It seems that this strategy may also work well with USD/CHF and USD/CAD (highest negative correlation with EUR/USD). Amazingly, nothing seems to be very correlated with GBP/USD. Of course, it depends on your view on how correlated the pairs must be in order to actually trade the same strategy with them.

M

 

[marketbreaker]

Watching CHF/JPY and waiting for 4H to close below the SMA.
Might be a good short, but on an exposure basis I will be very short the Swiss Franc considering I am already long USD/CHF.

We'll see

 

[marketbreaker]

Entered with stop at 1.1718. Take profit is left open.

I don't know but we may be seeing some offers at 1.1800 levels so I'm putting in a 15pip trailing stop on my position and look to re-enter if I'm stopped out (probably around the 1.1745-50 levels).

At least I got some pips in the bucket now.

 

[Trader333]

And do you have it programmed so it alerts you when the oppotunities are there or do you manually monitor all currencies on your screens???

Jason,

In my view programming this into RS is the best way to do it as you would get alerted as and when you got a signal in any number of currencies. It is also possible to do this in chart format in TS but the alert would be different.


Paul

 

[nine]

Captain Currency,

Thanks for answering. I did mean above but let me rephrase my question.

If price has been above the 240m and 60m smas for some days (positive bias) is a cross of price from below the 5m sma to above the 5m sma sufficient condition for a trade?

I ask this because I originally came away with the impression that price should also have recently crossed the 60m sma. But in the trade referred to above and copied in below (as opposed to your one) the price had been above the 60m sma since last week.

Marketbreaker, apologies for harking back to your trade but it illustrates some stuff I'm uncertain about really well




That would be independent of the question about Asian vs Eur/US market hours (where, in my previous experience I have frequently noted ranging behaviour with tests but few trends during asian/australian hours). Its also independent of the possibility of looking for price to also break any close by highs (such as existed in the trade I referred to above but I hadn't been paying attention to them).

 

[marketbreaker]

Marketbreaker, apologies for harking back to your trade but it illustrates some stuff I'm uncertain about really well

Hello nine

Looking at my chart again, it really did not break recent highs using MetaTrader's charts. However, what triggered my fingers to click the buy button was what I saw in my FXCM charts - a 5m opening above the recent highs. Ah well, we can't get them all.

 

[marketbreaker]

Watching CHF/JPY and waiting for 4H to close below the SMA.
Might be a good short, but on an exposure basis I will be very short the Swiss Franc considering I am already long USD/CHF.

We'll see

It's really interesting how patience pays off in trading ... I was actually intending to go short CHF/JPY, but things have started to change a little and appears to be going the other way. Let's see how it unravels in a couple of hours (if I'm not out for dinner!).

 

[marketbreaker]

EUR/CHF again ... probably another opportunity to enter this one.
Went long again, let's see how this one goes.

Stop loss at 1.6637, mental take profit is 1.6667 but may go higher?

 

[Captain Currency]

QUOTE from nine, Captain Currency,

Thanks for answering. I did mean above but let me rephrase my question.

If price has been above the 240m and 60m smas for some days (positive bias) is a cross of price from below the 5m sma to above the 5m sma sufficient condition for a trade? Yes, of course

Kind Regards,

 

[marketbreaker]

EUR/CHF again ... probably another opportunity to enter this one.
Went long again, let's see how this one goes.

Stop loss at 1.6637, mental take profit is 1.6667 but may go higher?

Stopped out for -15 pips.

 

[marketbreaker]

Got 2 positions on the dollar ... long USD/JPY and long USD/CHF
Should be able to ride a little on this one.

We'll see how these go.

 

[marketbreaker]

Got stopped out of USD/JPY at breakeven.

Should probably stop for a break.

 

[Captain Currency]

Got 2 positions on the dollar ... long USD/JPY and long USD/CHF
Should be able to ride a little on this one.

We'll see how these go.

Hello again marketbreaker,

You are way too agressive on you enteries IMO, are you a scalper? how many trades do you do a trade, do you stop for a breether?

 

[shadowninja]

Hello again marketbreaker,

You are way too agressive on you enteries IMO, are you a scalper? how many trades do you do a trade, do you stop for a breether?

I was thinking this. I saw this system as more a one shot a day thing in the morning (GMT).