Best Thread The 3 Duck's Trading System

I ve missed most of the setups today and I dont want to jump on the gun, therefore I am calling it a day,
08:48 GMT
 
Dave,

Joined you in cable long @16749. stop @16714. Well done on the USD/CAN trade. I got out much too soon. Re:gold. I was wrong! Mis-read the numbers (seem to have thought it was a four digit quote!!).
 
Just before shutting down the business for the day I had a quick look at USD/JPY pair and thought it might be a setup to go short at 89.70 area, yet the US is closed today, so not sure if this gonna move. Any thoughts?
 
blancspa said:
Just before shutting down the business for the day I had a quick look at USD/JPY pair and thought it might be a setup to go short at 89.70 area, yet the US is closed today, so not sure if this gonna move. Any thoughts?
Click to expand...


I can see where you are coming from but I took a hit trying to short this pair below 90 this week, so am not too keen. Everyone has their own views but I see a bit of support at 89.50, however if it breaks the intraday low at 89.30 then it could carry on down to 88.80.
Now you've brought it to my attention i'll watch with interest to see how it pans out, but don't think I'll trade it.
 
davechilde said:
I can see where you are coming from but I took a hit trying to short this pair below 90 this week, so am not too keen. Everyone has their own views but I see a bit of support at 89.50, however if it breaks the intraday low at 89.30 then it could carry on down to 88.80.
Now you've brought it to my attention i'll watch with interest to see how it pans out, but don't think I'll trade it.
Click to expand...

I ve got a support at 89.65 here and the resistance at the round number. Lets suppose the Japanese gov and banks hold US bonds but cannnot really sell them because they have a contract. The ne Japanese prime min gave a speech this week how bad the Japanese economy is, so yen really should not strenghten that much. So you may be right.

Still I am looking to go short today
 
well not particurarly convinced but sell stop hit anyways so:
small short USD/YEN 89.80 , stop above recent highs
 
davechilde said:
For Gold I'm not sure I agree with you. I entered at 1101, I would have treated the last low of 1097 as the stop so that's 40 pips. A sensible target of 1109 gives 80 so thats 1:2 R/R. in any event I saw it hit 1109 briefly in the 3pm (GMT) bar so took 70 pips at 1108, even though I think there's a decent chance of making a new high past Monday's 1111.30.


Dave
Click to expand...

Should have beleived in myself a bit more on this occasion, and would have had another 100 pips in the bag today.
 
Re:cable long. Went long early this morning at 16749. Left trialling stop at 16750 and went out to play tennis. Came back to see I was stopped out for at 16760 for 10 pips! Better than no stop I quess. What happened at 10.30?
 
cambridgedon said:
Short USD/JPY @8083 with 20 pip stop. Meets the criteria- let's see if it can perform!
Click to expand...

I'm not convinced. Whilst is is below the 4H 60SMA and appears to be following a downward trend and has dipped below in the 1H and 5M, IMHO I think it could be consolidating in a range in the 1H and doesn't appear to be confirming the downward trend displayed in the 4H.

As far as longer term trends go, it is verging on newish territory, it tested a 14 year low at 86.90 right at the start of the year and could be heading back there?

An interesting one indeed, lets see how it plays out.
 
10.30 was the Bank of England inflation figure, which was not that far from expectations so I can't see why it had such a negative impact on GBP, but I openly admit to not following fundametals too closely, often not closely enough!
 
Dave,

That's one of the problems with the 3 ducks. It doesn't give a good signal that often, so when it does, I suppose I feel under some pressure to trade it.
 
what I am going to do is move the stop to break even when the price hits 80.65 (only if obviously), because this has been annoying me
 
I am thinking of setting TP to break even ang going out of here its been pretty horrid trade

11 Nov I souldnt really be trading today its independence day for some
 
Helllo to all of you
I just discovered this system and now I have 137 post to read
Tks all on this thread about 3 duck system By the way I am fron Quebec Canada
Réal
 
cambridgedon said:
Dave,

That's one of the problems with the 3 ducks. It doesn't give a good signal that often, so when it does, I suppose I feel under some pressure to trade it.
Click to expand...

Cambridgedon,

That's my point, I am struggling to see a good signal on USD/JPY? My understanding of the 3 Ducks is that the 4H gives the long term trend, the 1H confirms it and the 5M gives the entry point.

It was comfortabley south of the 4H, so the first duck was in line for a short, but to me it looked as though the trend was not confirmed in the 1H. It had spiked up above the 1H in the Asian session and appeared to be consilidating around that SMA for the whole of yesterday. It tried to break below at 2.00am this morning, but pulled back and still hovers around the 1H SMA.

To me more obvious 3 Ducks set ups are this morning in EUR/USD. It's in an uptrend in the 4H, after a dip below yesterday the 1H appears to be resuming an uptrend. The 5M showed a clear swing high in the hour preceding the european opening at circa 1.5002, so I took a long when it went back above that level in the 6.50am candle to make a new 5M high. It has pulled back from that level, but I'm fairly relaxed as long as the 5M SMA holds. I'll use the 6.30am low of 1.4989 as my stop.

Similar set up and current position for a short on USD/CHF.

Could also be short on Cable if it shows a clear break below the 4H SMA?
 
hmmmm. Stopped out on both trades. I still think the set ups were technically correct for 3 Ducks, however my error may have been getting in just before 7.00am. Captain Currency does say it works best between 7am and 4pm GMT, so maybe I have been whipsawed by pre market action and should have waited for a new 5M high AFTER 7am.

Captain Currency rejoined this thread last night, perhaps he could comment?

Thanks

Dave
 
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