Tell the truth.Who does/doesnt make consistent trading profits.R U even a net winner?

[Skill Leverage]

OK missing obvious part (sorry for assuming that people would know what i mean b/c a bad trader will not do well no matter the trend) : any decent trader with the usual rules that apply: discpline, money management, etc... SHOUlD have been consistently profitable. There were like maybe 5-6 decent sized retractions and one huge one. This is a trend where u could let your profits run for a few days or a week at most.

I dont see why its a joke, it has been strongly trending for a very long time. UNless, people r trying to reverse on retraction (thats kinda risky) and/or missing out on the general rules of a decent trader.

You can't make a statement such as yours, which was basically 'anyone who has been consistently placing good trades for the last few months will have been consistently profitable' and expect it to have any value - obviously we know that if you had placed successful trades over the past x months you would have been successful. I think what people were trying to establish is whether people could place successful trades consistently based on predictions of future market behaviour, rather than events that had already taken place.

 

[ejtrader]

You can't make a statement such as yours, which was basically 'anyone who has been consistently placing good trades for the last few months will have been consistently profitable' and expect it to have any value - obviously we know that if you had placed successful trades over the past x months you would have been successful. I think what people were trying to establish is whether people could place successful trades consistently based on predictions of future market behaviour, rather than events that had already taken place.

Ok fair enough. I see your point and yes my statement is one of those obvious we know ones so its obviously right,...hahah j/k but its true that there is little if any value to it.
So about the actual topic....

To answer the questions, yes someone can consistently place successful trades on predicting the future market behavior. However, it is very time consuming at least for me because i do intraday and short term. After watching the market for a while, i can get a sense of how the NYSE will move based on reaction to news and price action and everything i trade is related to the equity markets. If i cannot get a sense, i stay out or just go with the long term trend. Recently, i have been able to identify the end of a short term trend and a retraction from experience.

Not traded long about 5 months but im a gamer, wow, call of duty, dota...etc and now trading and i have the stamina and staying power (and my dad said games were not going to help in the future). So i have dedicated nearly a whole 8 months to learning trading and 5 months to actual trading.

Started trading right around when gold n crude started coming down. I got in gold around mid 900. Crude around 130ish. It has been over 200+% increase monthly. Yes, by most peoples standards, i risk too much but when im right, i want to be Right. Only 1 month has been a loss because it occurred at end of the month.

So yes, i am a net winner. I am lucky as hell and i forget that sometimes. So my previous comments were uncalled for, sorry. I tend to forget the very hard times when im doing well. Even in a great trend ive had more than my fair share of very devastating losses. I considered them all a tuition fee and ive tried to learn from them. Even when i loss, i have unfounded confidence and do not get discouraged (maybe for a week at most) because i know i will reach my goal of 5 million(haha a lil high isnt it).

sorry for being a bit long winded, as the instruments im trading r a bit choppy today so no trading and i cannot sleep early.

 

[karlsparadise]

But thats poker.

I'm talking about trading.

I have an 100% sure fire way to win - never ever fails. Spend several days months, or years working out every mathematical equation posssible, target your market and wait....
Then, when the perfect set up has appeared in front of your eyes, and you know its a perfect time - simply buy/sell in the totally opposite way to all your computations and years of research
Its bound to work.

 

[shmeeko69]

Greetings,
What is your W/L since keeping track?
cordially Ponce

Hi There

Sorry about the delay.........
My win/loss ratio does'nt look great, about 70% of my trades end up in a loss, to a maximum of 3% of my bank each time.
My wins are what carry me through, because I've been able to catch a few good moves since august of this year.
Being a futures trader allows me to buy/sell then hold & allow any possible trend to develop & then piggyback onto any winning move.
I admit it's not easy looking at your account with a lot of losses, It's the few winning trends that carry you through & now finally build my trading account !!
I did start trading forex on a 4h timeframe with a few currency pairs (mainly eur/usd), but found it hideous & getting chopped up, trying to scalp !!
This is the reason I started with futures contracts a few months ago & It is working well, I just hope it continues this way & hopefully hold onto my DISCIPLINE !!

Cheers

 

[Data Miner]

I have an 100% sure fire way to win - never ever fails. Spend several days months, or years working out every mathematical equation posssible, target your market and wait....
Then, when the perfect set up has appeared in front of your eyes, and you know its a perfect time - simply buy/sell in the totally opposite way to all your computations and years of research
Its bound to work.

Ah! you speak of Mr Sod. Me & he are very well acquainted.

Only today in fact he visited me again. Starting December I'd been following a new angle (with real money) of buying daily horse racing favourites in certain circumstances. (I'm a sports spread-bettor)

The method flagged 7 trades which returned -9, -52, +33, -31, -15, -27, -14. Just a single positive return from the seven. Convinced myself this new approach was formulated it a moment of madness and from shaky ground, so should be abandoned.

Can't help lookin' though, can you? (especially easy 'cos my spreadsheet still highlights when conditions are in place) So, today's flagged Buy of Fairyhouse favourites at morning quote of 91-95 was not actioned. Spread made-up to 145, so a 50 point gain went begging.

Know what? Whether I go for the next one, or leave it alone, I reckon old Sod will want a hand in it.

DM

 

[Black Swan]

"The point is, gaining consistency is virtually impossible, as price is far from consistent.

Trying to trade, watching the candles is like trying to capture an unnobtainable object. It is impossible as you are always in its shadow, one step behind. Ever tried catching a fly in your hand......its next to impossible as the moment it sees your shadow, its gone......"

I've finished trading for the day so here's my approach FWIW.


Got to disagree with that quote from the thread opener.
I gave up my profession in 1999 to day trade US stocks and I've never had a losing week. I can't even remember the last time I had a losing day.
I've got my set ups and triggers and adhere to them very strictly. They work the majority of the time.
Sometimes the way I use level 2 and T&S warns me of an impending change in direction BEFORE it appears on a chart. When - and it's not always - that happens I exit the whole position or scale out of part of it. It's a very defensive posture which means when I'm right I get out at or very close to a turning point. When I'm wrong I've still made money. Right and wrong are not really the correct words for this, it's better described as when the signal is proved correct or incorrect.
My money management is very tight and when I've got an open trade I position manage equally strictly.
But part of the reason is extreme caution. I'm just not greedy and take what the market offers and exit when it turns against me. If it turns against me as soon as I enter, I simply exit and take a small loss. On choppy days I make less than on days with one or two or three good trends in them.
However, trading US stocks means you can hunt out the stocks which are moving and not range bound even on choppy days, so you're not restricted as you are with index futures, FX pairs etc where there aren't many trading instruments.
I just take what the market offers and frequently become more cautious and trade less after making very good profits on a particular day, sometimes reducing position size to minimise any risk to profits already earned. That doesn't apply to strongly trending days.
I suppose what I do is to dampen the amplitude of potential variation both in profits and in risk and that contributes a lot to consistency. It suits my personality, it might not suit others.
I concentrate on risk, NOT reward. In fact I frequently disregard potential reward as that is unknowable, whereas you can control risk very strictly. Obviously I don't often go long with resistance nearby or short with support nearby. When I do it's for small cent gains to gain from probable bull or bear traps.
Richard

Great post.

 

[shmeeko69]

Ah! you speak of Mr Sod. Me & he are very well acquainted.

Only today in fact he visited me again. Starting December I'd been following a new angle (with real money) of buying daily horse racing favourites in certain circumstances. (I'm a sports spread-bettor)

The method flagged 7 trades which returned -9, -52, +33, -31, -15, -27, -14. Just a single positive return from the seven. Convinced myself this new approach was formulated it a moment of madness and from shaky ground, so should be abandoned.

Can't help lookin' though, can you? (especially easy 'cos my spreadsheet still highlights when conditions are in place) So, today's flagged Buy of Fairyhouse favourites at morning quote of 91-95 was not actioned. Spread made-up to 145, so a 50 point gain went begging.

Know what? Whether I go for the next one, or leave it alone, I reckon old Sod will want a hand in it.

DM

Hi There

I've been making a reasonable living laying selecting short priced favourites 2.0 (evens) or under on Betfair or Betdaq exchanges.
This is only on horse racing, mainly hurdles/chase & the odds have to be less than evens, for it to qualify for laying (betting it to get beat) !!
This keeps my funds going whilst learning to trade futures through IG, as this is where the real money can be made if mastered, although getting better, still a long way off where I want to be, but my discipline is quite strong - getting stopped out does'nt bother me anymore & I don't take the profit prematurely now.

Cheers

 

[adamscj]

Hi There

I've been making a reasonable living laying selecting short priced favourites 2.0 (evens) or under on Betfair or Betdaq exchanges.
This is only on horse racing, mainly hurdles/chase & the odds have to be less than evens, for it to qualify for laying (betting it to get beat) !!
This keeps my funds going whilst learning to trade futures through IG, as this is where the real money can be made if mastered, although getting better, still a long way off where I want to be, but my discipline is quite strong - getting stopped out does'nt bother me anymore & I don't take the profit prematurely now.

Cheers

Are you still making money on laying short odds horses? I tried this for a while and made some money earlier in the year (up until about August) but then it tails off - if you plot a graph of odds * win ratio for horses < 2 you'll see that it returns about even over the last 4 months after a long winning streak. Do you have more criteria on selecting horses/races other than just starting price?

 

[Black Swan]

I'd be very surprised if only a dozen posters on 'ere made money

I'd also be asking why they bother posting on these forums rather than getting on with the job if they can't make it work...Surely, with the absolute minimum of effort, most (if not all) contributors could make at least 50 quid a day, every day?

 

[Rossini]

I'd also be asking why they bother posting on these forums rather than getting on with the job if they can't make it work...Surely, with the absolute minimum of effort, most (if not all) contributors could make at least 50 quid a day, every day?

I have to disagree there, if someone can make a consistent £50, then they possess the same skills that can make them £500, or £5000 per day for that matter. People who don't make money haven't yet learnt the skills to make money, that's all there is to it.

 

[timsk]

I'd also be asking why they bother posting on these forums rather than getting on with the job if they can't make it work...Surely, with the absolute minimum of effort, most (if not all) contributors could make at least 50 quid a day, every day?

That very much depends on the size of one's account. There's no way of knowing for sure but, for the sake of argument, I'd guess the average T2W member (who's a retail trader) typically has around £1,000 in their account. A £50 daily profit represents a daily gain of 5% - or 25% per week - or 100% per month. Anyone who can do that consistently is nothing short of a trading superstar. Very few, if any, will ever achieve this. However, add another couple of noughts to said trader's account so that they have £100k to trade with, then they only need to achieve gains of 0.05% per day - or 0.25% per week - or 1% per month. This is much more realistic. However, not many members will have accounts of this size and, of those that do, I'd wager that less than half enjoy returns equal to or better than this.
Tim.

 

[arabianights]

That very much depends on the size of one's account. There's no way of knowing for sure but, for the sake of argument, I'd guess the average T2W member (who's a retail trader) typically has around £1,000 in their account. A £50 daily profit represents a daily gain of 5% - or 25% per week - or 100% per month. Anyone who can do that consistently is nothing short of a trading superstar. Very few, if any, will ever achieve this. However, add another couple of noughts to said trader's account so that they have £100k to trade with, then they only need to achieve gains of 0.05% per day - or 0.25% per week - or 1% per month. This is much more realistic. However, not many members will have accounts of this size and, of those that do, I'd wager that less than half enjoy returns equal to or better than this.
Tim.

I have to disagree with you there... the average local is going to be making a lot more than 1% a month, at least 10x that I'd say...

 

[MrGecko]

From this thread

Don't be so sure



Well, this depends on the particular market and strategy that said trader uses; without getting anal about the detail, a trade you make for $2000 might not work if you put down $20,000 (plucked the numbers out of the air). Basically the bigger your positions, the more you are going to be influencing the market - single trades of $2000 dont, trades of $20,000,000 might (again, depending on the product and so on...) move the market. Its a bit like saying "why dont McLaren just stick a rocket on the back of their car, then Lewis is sure to win" - the dynamic and behaviour of the car would change, and this is also true (to a certain extent at least) in the markets.

By far the biggest barrier to this scaling up though is the traders themselves. Even if we have a proven, profitable technique for trading, and we say that we know for certain it will continue to work in the future, and that the size of our trades doesnt make a difference to the behaviour of the market (never going to happen, but bear with me), the way traders treat a $2000 trade is different to a $20,000 trade and so on. There is plenty of literature available, in books and here on T2W, about Discipline, Psychology, money management etc... but in laymans terms, when scaling up most traders choke and balls it up.

W.R.T. Systems, I can't comment because I've never paid for one, and most of my trades are a combination of PA and discretion. IMO, if you want to learn how to trade well, you've got to learn yourself. Then you might get an understanding of why it isnt as easy to go from $2000 to $200,000 as just having more cash.

 

[fifty2aces]

I have to disagree with you there... the average local is going to be making a lot more than 1% a month, at least 10x that I'd say...

True, but the average T2W member probably isn't making those kind of returns.

 

[alan5616]

However, add another couple of noughts to said trader's account so that they have £100k to trade with, then they only need to achieve gains of 0.05% per day - or 0.25% per week - or 1% per month. This is much more realistic. However, not many members will have accounts of this size and, of those that do, I'd wager that less than half enjoy returns equal to or better than this.
Tim.

Hi Tim,

Sorry, I can't agree with this example.

A trader with an account of £100k, who has a solid, proven trading methodology should be expecting a return of more than this. Imho, a retail trader, who starts with a £1k account and, makes a regular 25-50% per month is heading in the right direction.

I have a good friend who trades forex. He started with £1k on 1st Jan 2008. By continuously compounding his profits, his account balance, as of 31st December,is in excess of £25k. It makes my 120% return look very feeble

 

[timsk]

I have to disagree with you there... the average local is going to be making a lot more than 1% a month, at least 10x that I'd say...

Absolutely a_n, I quite agree. But, I was referring to a typical T2W reatil trader who, let's face it, is a million miles away from the average local.

Tim.

 

[arabianights]

A retail trader could emulate a local, I think.

 

[timsk]

Hi Tim,

Sorry, I can't agree with this example.

A trader with an account of £100k, who has a solid, proven trading methodology should be expecting a return of more than this. Imho, a retail trader, who starts with a £1k account and, makes a regular 25-50% per month is heading in the right direction.

I have a good friend who trades forex. He started with £1k on 1st Jan 2008. By continuously compounding his profits, his account balance, as of 31st December,is in excess of £25k. It makes my 120% return look very feeble

Hi alan5616,
The key word for me is in your second para: 'expecting'. Expectation and reality are two very different things; I'm confident that many CEO's of banks around the world will attest to that! I congratulate your friend trading forex, he's done exceptionally well. As per my comment to arabianights, I was referring to an 'average' T2W member. I would maintain that the success enjoyed by your friend is anything but average.
Tim.

 

[timsk]

A retail trader could emulate a local, I think.

Absolutely a_n, I agree. But, I repeat, I was talking about the reality for a typical T2W member, NOT what is technically possible and occasionally achieved by a select minority.
Tim.

 

[Black Swan]

I have to disagree there, if someone can make a consistent £50, then they possess the same skills that can make them £500, or £5000 per day for that matter. People who don't make money haven't yet learnt the skills to make money, that's all there is to it.

With respect I disagree on point one and I'm surprised at your logic. As I'm sure we've all found to our cost or benefit moving from a pound a pip to ten pound a pip 'does' things to you head and emotions. TBH I could virtually guarantee to grab fifty quid every day off the markets, it would feel like when I was a student; waiting to jump on a one arm bandit in a pub, after watching out the corner of my eye, as someone has walked away having just put a tenner in it - five minutes child's play. Scaling up/compounding ain't that easy and fifty quid a day is no use to me for the time and effort. On your point two I do agree.

The reason I contributed to this thread is that IMHO the title is nonsense, there are 150,000 registrants on this excellent suite of forums, to suggest only a dozen have 'success' means that the site and forums are a total waste of time which is ridiculous.