Technical Trading - my 2 cents !!!!

[Glenn]

yes, the data doesn't seem to line up correctly at the open?

View attachment 32446

View attachment 32447

The APPL data starts at 9 am, which doesn't agree with the session times you posted.
THe data should start from 14:30.
Can't remember if there's a time offset somewhere.
I'll have a look when I get a minute.

Glenn

 

[belflan]

The APPL data starts at 9 am, which doesn't agree with the session times you posted.
THe data should start from 14:30.
Can't remember if there's a time offset somewhere.
I'll have a look when I get a minute.

Glenn

its ok glenn,


i played about with it, and think its all lined up nicely now

thansk
glen

 

[belflan]

Okay. Going into today's market and especially bearing in mind we had the nfp numbers, I had 17 positions open, all short, but, 'no stops' in place. Why, well I am trading in Weak Stocks, fundamentally weak, and I am well diversified with proper position sizing.

Frank / Grey1 / or anyone else that can answer/

something that's been hanging around in the back of my head,

what if some random event hit the markets (causing all stocks to head north strongly) at this time when you have 17 positions opened all short and no stop.

could this not do quite a bit of damage to account?

i read a while ago Nassim Nicholas;s book Fooled by Randomness, and it has made me think ever since, what's the worst thing that could happen (black swan event) before putting on positions

just wondered what your thoughts were

glen

just to add to this i read a interview with Nick McDonald (not sure if he's a chancer or not) in Traders' mag about his biggest loss,

he says,

''I once lost 14% in a day while trading stocks due to no fault of my own. It was a big gap and it was intraday ie. not even between close and open but in the middle of market hours. There was no news and no apparent reason for it - it was just a freak occurrence. It got me thinking a lot more about this risk of trading stocks though. Hence now I only trade FX, mini-dow and other highly liquid markets.''

 

[belflan]

Hi Glen,

Sure, my AAPL scalp of $1.5, was on Monday. I took the trade at 16.51, Short, at a price of 179.73 and closed at 178.14 at 17.23. You can see that I left $2 on the table, but, the 10 minute $INDU MACCI flattened earlier than I had thought. But, these things happen. The key thing was, the trade was positive very quick, and I had a Breakeven stop in place within a minute.

Not sure what you mean about the $INDU MACCI 'tonight', as there was a couple of great entries on the 10 minutes, look at the 19.40 time for example.

Hope this helps.
Frank.

finally able to post charts of Franks scalp last monday (thanks to the members of this BB, :innocent: you guyysss)

first 2 charts show where the market was and AAPL was on the 10mins charts (ie O/B MACCI), exit then because MACCI 10Min on Market chart flatness out

second shows entries/exits on 2min charts

 

[Grey1]

Okay. Going into today's market and especially bearing in mind we had the nfp numbers, I had 17 positions open, all short, but, 'no stops' in place. Why, well I am trading in Weak Stocks, fundamentally weak, and I am well diversified with proper position sizing.

Frank / Grey1 / or anyone else that can answer/

something that's been hanging around in the back of my head,

what if some random event hit the markets (causing all stocks to head north strongly) at this time when you have 17 positions opened all short and no stop.

could this not do quite a bit of damage to account?

i read a while ago Nassim Nicholas;s book Fooled by Randomness, and it has made me think ever since, what's the worst thing that could happen (black swan event) before putting on positions

just wondered what your thoughts were

glen

just to add to this i read a interview with Nick McDonald (not sure if he's a chancer or not) in Traders' mag about his biggest loss,

he says,

''I once lost 14% in a day while trading stocks due to no fault of my own. It was a big gap and it was intraday ie. not even between close and open but in the middle of market hours. There was no news and no apparent reason for it - it was just a freak occurrence. It got me thinking a lot more about this risk of trading stocks though. Hence now I only trade FX, mini-dow and other highly liquid markets.''

What if some news hit the 17 Stocks? lets say we are all short in 17 stocks. In this case like any other postion we lose till the effect of the news is eliminated and then the portfolio goes back to where it was prior to the news with in hours up to 48 hours, We will not close any of the postions . A good example of this was Bernanke LEAKED speech which made market to rally for two days. On the third day the Portfolio is back where we started. In MODERN PORTFOLIO THEORY used amongst hedge fund managers the effect of SPIKE is considered as NILL relative to its BETA.

VEGAS's 2008 portfolio is doing very well as I am writing this so is FIBBO's . Target is 300-400% for the year. Intra day trading is just used as a hedge for swing losses if we encounter a losing day and has no other uses. I have asked both FIBBO and VEGAS to stop day trading while portfolio is in postive for the day ,,

Grey1

 

[belflan]

Okay. Going into today's market and especially bearing in mind we had the nfp numbers, I had 17 positions open, all short, but, 'no stops' in place. Why, well I am trading in Weak Stocks, fundamentally weak, and I am well diversified with proper position sizing.



What if some news hit the 17 Stocks? lets say we are all short in 17 stocks. In this case like any other postion we lose till the effect of the news is eliminated and then the portfolio goes back to where it was prior to the news with in hours up to 48 hours, We will not close any of the postions . A good example of this was Bernanke LEAKED speech which made market to rally for two days. On the third day the Portfolio is back where we started. In MODERN PORTFOLIO THEORY used amongst hedge fund managers the effect of SPIKE is considered as NILL relative to its BETA.

VEGAS's 2008 portfolio is doing very well as I am writing this so is FIBBO's . Target is 300-400% for the year. Intra day trading is just used as a hedge for swing losses if we encounter a losing day and has no other uses. I have asked both FIBBO and VEGAS to stop day trading while portfolio is in postive for the day ,,

Grey1

thanks Grey1,

i guess you just need the confidence in the weakness or strength of your choosen positions to ride these spikey periods out.

i take it this is were the interday scalping would kick in to soften the blow?

ta#
glen

 

[Grey1]

thanks Grey1,

i guess you just need the confidence in the weakness or strength of your choosen positions to ride these spikey periods out.

i take it this is were the interday scalping would kick in to soften the blow?

ta#
glen

SPOT ON .

What you need is to choose stocks from my weak list with correct pos size and you are on your way .

All stocks for VEGAS and FIBBO are from my weak list all with correct pos size as well as distributing the risk by choosing different sectors to reduce risk . In another word we would NOT want to be in financial in 17 stocks even though the return could be high but remember RISK first REWARD after ,,, In gangster trading REWARD comes first RISK after.

Donot be a gangster you be behind the bars eventually .
PS:-- By compounding the growth rate on your portfolio you soon can make serious WEALTH in only couple of years using a simple strategy just the way most of the Fund managers do it on WALL STREET .


Grey1

 

[belflan]

SPOT ON .

What you need is to choose stocks from my weak list with correct pos size and you are on your way .


Grey1

thanks Grey,

you havn't mentioned the strong list lately, is it still in play for you, or are you bearish only at the moment?

regards
Glen

 

[Grey1]

thanks Grey,

you havn't mentioned the strong list lately, is it still in play for you, or are you bearish only at the moment?

regards
Glen

I am a bear for 2008 even with a possible 3/4 rate cut . This is the reason all VEGAS ,FIBBO and my own stocks are SHORT ,, By the time the effect of various catalysts offered by Bernake is fed through the market will be at least 12 month and hence my BEARISH NESS. Spread betters can take advantage of this to go short DOW $10.point for 2008 and possibly make 20K by the end of the year.


Grey1

 

[belflan]

I am a bear for 2008 even with a possible 3/4 rate cut . This is the reason all VEGAS ,FIBBO and my own stocks are SHORT ,, By the time the effect of various catalysts offered by Bernake is fed through the market will be at least 12 month and hence my BEARISH NESS. Spread betters can take advantage of this to go short DOW $10.point for 2008 and possibly make 20K by the end of the year.


Grey1

ok, then should i/we be avoiding long swings all together even for short periods ie. two three days?

glne

 

[tss42]

On the TS screenshot, does MACCI stand for a 6 peiord MA of a 5 period CCI, or is it the other way round?

Sorry, I use eSignal.

Thanks.

 

[iq200]

On the TS screenshot, does MACCI stand for a 6 peiord MA of a 5 period CCI, or is it the other way round?

Sorry, I use eSignal.

Thanks.

tts42,
THe MACCI is a CCI of period 6 smoothed by a 5 period SMA.
cheers,
IMran

 

[LuckyBucks]

Hi Jonathan,

No problem in giving to you my thoughts. Just as an aside, I want to add that Iraj is happy (and encouraging) me to do so. I'm sure he will also intercede if I happen to 'blow of course'. I can only do my best.

Okay. Going into today's market and especially bearing in mind we had the nfp numbers, I had 17 positions open, all short, but, 'no stops' in place. Why, well I am trading in Weak Stocks, fundamentally weak, and I am well diversified with proper position sizing. Also, technically I am correct, as all my stocks were overbought when I shorted and going into today were still not oversold, so no need to close. Sure, the market could have run +200pts, and my positions would have suffered some, but, as they are fundamentally weak they would'nt suffer half as much as if I was Short Strong Stocks. I can wait, as the fundamentals are on my size, plus, remember fear is stronger than greed, so better to be short, especially in these times. Please remember, regarding the above, that I am at my desk during the day, now, if you are uncomfortable with no stop in place, then yes, you can use a 1 or 1.5 ATR.

If I am fundamentally and technically correct, and my risk is managed and under control, then, I can do no more.

Answering your 2nd question. So the stock's MACCI is overbought on the Daily. This has been identified, the night before. Now, the following day, we want to short this stock, but, we must wait for a good entry, so using firstly, the $INDU MACCI on the 10 minute (waiting for it to be overbought) and at the same time, requiring that the particular stock is preferably below mid point of it's days range, i.e. is weak on the day. There is no use shorting it if it is strong on the day.

Hope this helps.
Frank.

Hi Vegas,

thanks for answering questions on these methods. I have a few of questions.

When the stocks MACCI is overbought on the daily (on the day we short the stock), does the MACCI of the DOW have to be overbought at 100+ too on the same day? I assume it would or else this could suggest the stock was actually stronger than the broader market.

On the day we are looking to enter the stock when the MACCI of DOW is overbought on the 10 min, I imagine its best to have quite a strong MACCI of DOW on the daily? while the stock is weak on the daily, or below 50% of the range of the day when we enter. Is it for example worth shorting a weak stock when the MACCI of the DOW is below 50% too or should it be above 70% or something?

If you were buying one stock what percentage of your capital would you be risking on that one trade?

If you were buying more than one stock (like 17), would you enter them all on the same day or do you enter them a few per day or every few days, and wait for the first few to be in profit before you enter some more positions?

Do you invest all of your account in the 17 positions equally according to their ATR? How is this calculated?

Hope your success continues

thanks

Zak

 

[tss42]

Frank,
A few questions on the intra-day swing trading method using MACCI, if that's OK.

I have so far the following rules (for shorting):
1. First choose a weak stock.
2. Ensure the stock's MACCI is OB on the daily on the night before.
3. On the day, wait for the $INDU MACCI on the 10m chart to be OB. The particular stock should be below the midpoint of the day’s range.
4. Enter when the $INDU MACCI on the 10m chart turns from an OB level. OB level = 100 or thereabout.
5. Get out if the $INDU MACCI on the 10m chart flattens out.

Questions:
1. Are all transactions on close of the 10m bars? Or do you fine tune entry and exit using lower timeframes?
2. Are we not looking at the MACCI of the stock itself at any point?
3. Where is the initial stop. Does it remain there or is it trailed?
4. Finally, I was looking at the chart that belflan posted (see below). Where he says you exited (blue arrow), the $INDU MACCI was still going down on the 10m chart (black arrow). Was the exit based on a lower timeframe?

Many thanks for this thread.
TSS.

 

[belflan]

Frank,
A few questions on the intra-day swing trading method using MACCI, if that's OK.

I have so far the following rules (for shorting):
1. First choose a weak stock.
2. Ensure the stock's MACCI is OB on the daily on the night before.
3. On the day, wait for the $INDU MACCI on the 10m chart to be OB. The particular stock should be below the midpoint of the day’s range.
4. Enter when the $INDU MACCI on the 10m chart turns from an OB level. OB level = 100 or thereabout.
5. Get out if the $INDU MACCI on the 10m chart flattens out.

Questions:
1. Are all transactions on close of the 10m bars? Or do you fine tune entry and exit using lower timeframes?
2. Are we not looking at the MACCI of the stock itself at any point?
3. Where is the initial stop. Does it remain there or is it trailed?
4. Finally, I was looking at the chart that belflan posted (see below). Where he says you exited (blue arrow), the $INDU MACCI was still going down on the 10m chart (black arrow). Was the exit based on a lower timeframe?

Many thanks for this thread.
TSS.

Hi TSS,

if Frank doesn't answer your questions, i will do my best to answer them later, i've been in contact with Frank through PM, and may be able to help answer some of your questions

cheers
Glen

 

[vegas]

Thanks Glen, appreciate the offer. I will give 'it' another go, but, please feel free to add or otherwise as you see fit.

Thanks to all for the pm's. I do appreciate it.

Frank.

 

[belflan]

Thanks Glen, appreciate the offer. I will give 'it' another go, but, please feel free to add or otherwise as you see fit.

Thanks to all for the pm's. I do appreciate it.

Frank.

good to have you back Frank,

whats G1, and you make of the rates cut?

still short i bet

glen

 

[tss42]

Glen, Frank,
Thank you both. Looking forward to a very nice discussion.

 

[vegas]

Hi Vegas,

thanks for answering questions on these methods. I have a few of questions.

When the stocks MACCI is overbought on the daily (on the day we short the stock), does the MACCI of the DOW have to be overbought at 100+ too on the same day? I assume it would or else this could suggest the stock was actually stronger than the broader market.

On the day we are looking to enter the stock when the MACCI of DOW is overbought on the 10 min, I imagine its best to have quite a strong MACCI of DOW on the daily? while the stock is weak on the daily, or below 50% of the range of the day when we enter. Is it for example worth shorting a weak stock when the MACCI of the DOW is below 50% too or should it be above 70% or something?

If you were buying one stock what percentage of your capital would you be risking on that one trade?

If you were buying more than one stock (like 17), would you enter them all on the same day or do you enter them a few per day or every few days, and wait for the first few to be in profit before you enter some more positions?

Do you invest all of your account in the 17 positions equally according to their ATR? How is this calculated?

Hope your success continues

thanks

Zak

Hi Zak,

Yes, the MACCI of the DOW should be O/B when you take the 'short' position, but, I am referring to the 10 min timeframe. Please don't get caught up into a number, like '100', it means little, it is about the 'area' first, so could be 94, 96, 102, 112 etc etc and then critically the 'turn' on the 10 minute timeframe.

I am entering stocks (short), which are fundamentally weak and then technically overbought. I use the 10 min INDU MACCI to time my entry. I do not use the INDU MACCI on a daily basis at all.

About 1%.

I would enter positions as the opportunity arises, i.e. fundamentally and technically. But, obviously I have to pay close attention to my buying power and so my account size.

Iraj, has posted an ela to calculate your position size

Hope this helps.

Vegas

 

[vegas]

good to have you back Frank,

whats G1, and you make of the rates cut?

still short i bet

glen

Thanks Glen.

Yes still short. The Rate Cuts obviously did'nt help my positions today, gave back a piece from where I was at the open, as you can imagine, but, still up on the day and more importantly, fundamentally, nothing has changed, yes, we could rally some here, however, it will still take some time for the benefits of these cuts to filter through to the economy. Let's see what happens.

Take it easy,
Frank.