Technical Trading - my 2 cents !!!!

[vegas]

Knowing that you use stocks which are fundamentally weak and wait for them to become technically weak is useful. That Grey1 is carrying out some form of fundamental analysis of stocks ties in I am sure with his established longer term investment goals. Looks like he is using that analysis on which to base his (and yours) shorter term technical trading activities.

Can't have too much of or too many good things.[/QUOTE]


Very well said Tony.

Frank.

 

[jayjay121]

Hi Jason,

Straight talking, that is fine. You make some interesting comments that I would like to take the opportunity to address.

First up, you mentioned other forums traders like 'tkimble, tro', that are having 'great consistent success' with systems that are alot 'more simple to understand'. How do you know this Jason, have you seem their Daily P/L's over several years. I doubt it, as I know the forums you are referring to. Now maybe, I am wrong, however, in all my years, Iraj, is the only trader I can remember who shares his P/L. Sure, maybe, they are successful, and if so, good luck to them, but, do you honestly know. But, you do know Iraj is very successful.

It is of course, upto you, if you want to follow other strategies. I have, in the past, but, with little success, now, that does'nt mean you won't of course be very successful. But, you must pick and stay with one strategy, and see it through.

Regarding Technical Trading, I am actually unsure of what you want. I have tried to answer questions as honestly as possible. You have the list of weak and strong stocks, I assume you have the MACCI, have studied the $INDU MACCI, use the 10minute as the lead, but, watch also the 1 minute and 5 minute (more the 5), know how to pick your stocks based on the stocks Daily MACCI, understand the 'top down' approach, understand what overbought and oversold means, know that the more positions you have open in cross sectors the better diversified you are, and know that your postion sizing is best to come off the Dailly ATR of the stock in question at 1%. So, with all this, and absorbing the answer 'above' that I posted to Jonathan concerning 'entry'. You have the Swing Strategy.

Now, if you have more specific questions additionally, great, I will try of course and answer them.

Thanks,
Frank.

your right grey1 is the only single person i know for a 100% fact is making money trading.............infact i wish others would post there p & l and i might challenge people to do this as your right we can't genuwinly believe them otherwise.
But i do get discouraged when i see only two traders on here making it with grey1s methods, you gotta understand this. Your probably all more qualified then me so if you cannot make it work how the hell am i gonna do it. Especially all the years and input grey has put in, its a poor return you gotta say.................if im wrong please tell me as im not afrraid to be made to look stupid, i'm really not. This is nothing personal on grey by the way, he has helped so many and made us all aware of his successful methods, he did'nt need to do that and i respect the man so much i mean it. But if im gonna put my heart and soul into trading his way, i gotta know it works for others too not just two people thats not good enough for me considering the amount of people on tt.


jason

by the way rant over i will stop right now

 

[TheBramble]

jayjay121

If you are finding any method difficult to follow or reproduce yourself, simply stop. By far the best way to establish a trading system and method that works for you personally is to carry on ‘trying on’ those that you get the hear about and read about. At least one will, if you are diligent in your research and your efforts, ‘click’ with you and you’ll be away.

In all honesty, I don’t understand why you have chosen to attempt Grey1’s methods if you’re not already trading successfully yourself. His methods are simple, but very comprehensive, very precise and require an awful lot of background info which isn’t set down in one place for the picking – you have to dig and hunt for it. I think a lot of folk on here focus on his image attachments of the ‘mighty VWAP machine’ and think that’s what they have to develop themselves. They couldn’t. Or rather, few could.

The people you refer to on other forums and sites that have ‘simpler systems’ – why don’t you use them? Or at least try them?

The emphasis is very much on you doing the work to find your way and not on others to convince you their way works or to produce evidence that they are successful so you can believe in them.

You’re better off, IMO, disbelieving everything and everybody until you test it for yourself or you get the opportunity to empirically validate their claims. Over time, you’ll convince yourself who is and who is not worth listening to. But you do have to put in that time.

Good luck.

 

[Glenn]

your right grey1 is the only single person i know for a 100% fact is making money trading.............infact i wish others would post there p & l and i might challenge people to do this as your right we can't genuwinly believe them otherwise.
But i do get discouraged when i see only two traders on here making it with grey1s methods, you gotta understand this. Your probably all more qualified then me so if you cannot make it work how the hell am i gonna do it. Especially all the years and input grey has put in, its a poor return you gotta say.................if im wrong please tell me as im not afrraid to be made to look stupid, i'm really not. This is nothing personal on grey by the way, he has helped so many and made us all aware of his successful methods, he did'nt need to do that and i respect the man so much i mean it. But if im gonna put my heart and soul into trading his way, i gotta know it works for others too not just two people thats not good enough for me considering the amount of people on tt.


jason

by the way rant over i will stop right now

Jason
You might care to look at these two posts about 'fundamental' analysis:-

www.trade2win.com/boards/technical-trader/27336-vwap-system-simulated-performance.html#post372289

www.trade2win.com/boards/technical-...eal-time-down-loadable-code-4.html#post364358

Glenn

 

[dcraig1]

On the topic of fundamental analysis ...

Sector/Industry performance can probably be thought of as a kind of halfway house between fundamental and technical analysis, that is very easy to do, and does not have the difficulties associated with company valuation.

Attached two charts of equi-weighted indices of Agricultural Chemicals and Residential Construction which by my calculations are the industries with the highest and lowest 250 day relative strength. The industry composition is from Yahoo finance. These industry trends can last for quite a long time, and can be identified well before the trend exhausts itself though these two examples are probably a bit extreme.

It is not rocket science to put some logical reasoning together to explain many of these industry trends.

 

[dcraig1]

Here is a little something that caught my attention - the good performance of the closed end debt funds in the last 2 weeks or so. Maybe somebody might like to comment. Rotation of capital out of equities into debt ? Has sub-prime run it's course (at least temporarily) ? Bottom fishing ? I really don't know, but it does look a bit interesting.

 

[jayjay121]

If you are finding any method difficult to follow or reproduce yourself, simply stop. By far the best way to establish a trading system and method that works for you personally is to carry on ‘trying on’ those that you get the hear about and read about. At least one will, if you are diligent in your research and your efforts, ‘click’ with you and you’ll be away.

In all honesty, I don’t understand why you have chosen to attempt Grey1’s methods if you’re not already trading successfully yourself. His methods are simple, but very comprehensive, very precise and require an awful lot of background info which isn’t set down in one place for the picking – you have to dig and hunt for it. I think a lot of folk on here focus on his image attachments of the ‘mighty VWAP machine’ and think that’s what they have to develop themselves. They couldn’t. Or rather, few could.

The people you refer to on other forums and sites that have ‘simpler systems’ – why don’t you use them? Or at least try them?

The emphasis is very much on you doing the work to find your way and not on others to convince you their way works or to produce evidence that they are successful so you can believe in them.

You’re better off, IMO, disbelieving everything and everybody until you test it for yourself or you get the opportunity to empirically validate their claims. Over time, you’ll convince yourself who is and who is not worth listening to. But you do have to put in that time.

Good luck.

ok thanks for the advice, by the way for the last couple of months ive been trading tkimbles weekly scalping system and daily system, just started trying out tro 'buyzone' and im having great success with it, ok only on my nija sim and i know you guys are gonna say that is not real money, but nija sim is one of the most realistic sims and the point is i treat every trade for real and i get a competitive mindset to make it as realistic as possible......its hard to explain but it feels as feel as i can make it if you like...................anyway for the last couple of months my trading has been the most profitable it has ever been, its not luck, im playing percentages and not bothered when i lose as i know like a casino i have the stats on my side and feel so long as i stick to trading rules ill make money..................have i found my edge or is it simply too quick to say, i feel confident to start real cash with it, but then i read comments like these kind of systems will not work in the long run..............its hard, but i guess your right there is no easy way you just gotta find out for yourself..........people always say in this game you need discipline, you gotta know yourself, you must have a plan and risk management etc............i'm in the opposite position as i truely have self discipline and do strickly follow rules, i also know my inner self and have a risk mangement model of my own, the thing i have not got is a trading system that i can believe in, once i find the right one i honestly feel everything will be in place............you guys might class me as a newbie and that fine as i come accross that way, but in fact ive been trying at this game since i was 21 and im now 29, so ive learnt alot and actually know more than you think........................no offence, im looking for a system to follow, and i do understand the top down approach, how grey uses the 3 macci charts, how he uses index against the stocks to find overbought and os oppotunities, i know about his swing techniques and understand them, i know how he uses vwap as his benchmark, i know about his pair trading..............its all great but still people avoid the facts and maybe im the only realistic one here but two people still is not good enough for me.

sorry if you don't like what im saying and if im coming accross all wrong but im being genuwin and it seems no one else on here is bothered by the above facts.

grey makes money doing this but no one else can, this is all i have learnt really by following greys methods at the end of the day.


jason


ill let you guys get on now ok

 

[jdbzero]

........no offence, im looking for a system to follow, and i do understand the top down approach, how grey uses the 3 macci charts, how he uses index against the stocks to find overbought and os oppotunities, i know about his swing techniques and understand them, i know how he uses vwap as his benchmark, i know about his pair trading..............its all great but still people avoid the facts and maybe im the only realistic one here but two people still is not good enough for me.

sorry if you don't like what im saying and if im coming accross all wrong but im being genuwin and it seems no one else on here is bothered by the above facts.

grey makes money doing this but no one else can, this is all i have learnt really by following greys methods at the end of the day.


jason


ill let you guys get on now ok

You may be correct in what you say Jason. I would, however like to think of it from the other perspective:

How many people on this board have tried Grey1's methods for a reasonable period of time and failed or lost money?
This is not cticism of anybody but myself when I say, It's far too easy to give up on something that does not work out of the box or takes considerable time and effort to get right.
In the words of Mr Marcus ( I think ) maybe we are all looking for an URL to success.

Jonathan

 

[vegas]

ok thanks for the advice, by the way for the last couple of months ive been trading tkimbles weekly scalping system and daily system, just started trying out tro 'buyzone' and im having great success with it, ok only on my nija sim and i know you guys are gonna say that is not real money, but nija sim is one of the most realistic sims and the point is i treat every trade for real and i get a competitive mindset to make it as realistic as possible......its hard to explain but it feels as feel as i can make it if you like...................anyway for the last couple of months my trading has been the most profitable it has ever been, its not luck, im playing percentages and not bothered when i lose as i know like a casino i have the stats on my side and feel so long as i stick to trading rules ill make money..................have i found my edge or is it simply too quick to say, i feel confident to start real cash with it, but then i read comments like these kind of systems will not work in the long run..............its hard, but i guess your right there is no easy way you just gotta find out for yourself..........people always say in this game you need discipline, you gotta know yourself, you must have a plan and risk management etc............i'm in the opposite position as i truely have self discipline and do strickly follow rules, i also know my inner self and have a risk mangement model of my own, the thing i have not got is a trading system that i can believe in, once i find the right one i honestly feel everything will be in place............you guys might class me as a newbie and that fine as i come accross that way, but in fact ive been trying at this game since i was 21 and im now 29, so ive learnt alot and actually know more than you think........................no offence, im looking for a system to follow, and i do understand the top down approach, how grey uses the 3 macci charts, how he uses index against the stocks to find overbought and os oppotunities, i know about his swing techniques and understand them, i know how he uses vwap as his benchmark, i know about his pair trading..............its all great but still people avoid the facts and maybe im the only realistic one here but two people still is not good enough for me.

sorry if you don't like what im saying and if im coming accross all wrong but im being genuwin and it seems no one else on here is bothered by the above facts.

grey makes money doing this but no one else can, this is all i have learnt really by following greys methods at the end of the day.


jason


ill let you guys get on now ok

Hi Jason,

All I can say is that you are presuming that because people are not reponding in saying that they are profitable utilising Grey1's methods, then, it must be because, they are 'not profitable'. These are fairly big steps you are taking, IMO. Also, most people tend to be silent 'participants', and it 'tends' to be the same group who do the majority of the postings. This is the tendency on most forums in my experience.

Regards,
Frank.

 

[jayjay121]

Hi Jason,

All I can say is that you are presuming that because people are not reponding in saying that they are profitable utilising Grey1's methods, then, it must be because, they are 'not profitable'. These are fairly big steps you are taking, IMO. Also, most people tend to be silent 'participants', and it 'tends' to be the same group who do the majority of the postings. This is the tendency on most forums in my experience.

Regards,
Frank.

yep you are right...............i just can't presume that, sorry.
I have pm'ed a few people who have followed these methods and they say they have had no joy, also timing of the trades seems to be an issue, and some have said having money tied up in everywhere can get a bit much, i guess this is where the engine comes into play though and we don't have it.


jason

 

[brutusdog]

Vegas, thank you for taking the time to explain your methods as taught by Grey1, could you illuminate further on your daytrading activity's?

many thanks.

bd.

 

[LevII]

yep you are right...............i just can't presume that, sorry.
I have pm'ed a few people who have followed these methods and they say they have had no joy, also timing of the trades seems to be an issue, and some have said having money tied up in everywhere can get a bit much, i guess this is where the engine comes into play though and we don't have it.


jason

Jason

You seem to want to be spoon fed with a guaranteed road to riches. No such thing exists.

Nobody is telling or even asking you to follow any of G1's methods. If for some reason you do not like or what you see then just ignore it.

 

[LevII]

... But anyway my point is if trading is a business, then of course i want as close to a guarantee as i can get that i will profit, why wouldn't i?
jason
anyway im gone from this thread

There is plenty of wisdom out there to help you pursue your goal. Lots of good books, lots of good material on this board and others like it. Equally there are lots of bad books and a lot of junk on this and other sites.

Read, assimilate, filter the information, decide what makes logical sense formulate a methodology based upon it then test it on real data. That way, after lots of hard work, you may just get there.

If you mean what you say that "im gone from this thread" then goodbye & good luck.

 

[Grey1]

Guys

Sorry about the delay in resposding ,, I really and honestly think people should move to what works for them and far far away from my strategy .



It is your account it is your future


I do appologise not replying faster to any posts as i feel i have out lined my complete work on this BB since 2002 and any further comments is the repitition of what i have said before...


Muchas Gracias




Grey1

 

[belflan]

i have out lined my complete work on this BB since 2002 and any further comments is the repitition of what i have said before...


Muchas Gracias




Grey1

Grey1

if it's all here on TT, i'll take it

cheers
Glen

 

[vegas]

Vegas, thank you for taking the time to explain your methods as taught by Grey1, could you illuminate further on your daytrading activity's?

many thanks.

bd.

Hi Bd,

Sure.

My daytrading can be divided between utilising the 'Swing Strategy', but, opening and closing on the same day, and Scalping.

Regarding, the 'Swing Strategy', but, opening and closing on the same day, it follows the same rules. I was looking for an example from the 'weak list', but, today was very difficult, as so much was either oversold or going toward it, going into the day. However, if I had a stock (that was overbought on the daily), I would be looking to short it at around either 15.20 or 17.00, as these were turning points on the $INDU MACCI, 17.00 is cleaner, 15.20 is more aggressive. Now, I would only take the trade if my stock was below the mid price on the day, i.e. sellers had the upper hand, at that time.

The other type of Daytrading I am doing, is scalping. Now, I have thought about this, and it is really impossible to be able to explain this. It really would need demonstating, live. All I can say is that I am concentrating on 2 highly liquid stocks, in my case, AAPL and RIMM. You need very tight spreads and to be easily able to enter and exit. You need to be very decisive with this style. Grey1, informs me that this type of trading is not suitable to everyone's personality. We all have different 'makeups'. Personally, I love trading this style.

An additional point, is that you should be using Daytrading only as a means to cover any 'shortfalls', on your Swing's P/L. So, if your Swing's are down, say $300, on the day, then you Daytrade to make that up, so that, when your Swings do go your way, it is all bankable. However, therefore, you should'nt really Daytrade on days when your Swings are going your way, there is no need to. Having said that, I do still tend to scalp, however, the risk is very, very contained....and that is the key.

Hope this helps some.

Frank.

 

[belflan]

yep you are right...............i just can't presume that, sorry.
I have pm'ed a few people who have followed these methods and they say they have had no joy, also timing of the trades seems to be an issue, and some have said having money tied up in everywhere can get a bit much, i guess this is where the engine comes into play though and we don't have it.


jason

hi jason,

i read some of your posts in work earlier today, and i can safely say i have felt the same in the past.

where i am now, the last thing i want is Grey to hand over his engines and i trade off them blindly, i want, through work, to be able to develop my own, and surely this is the only way forward for any would be trader??

regards
Glen

 

[brutusdog]

Hi Bd,

Sure.

My daytrading can be divided between utilising the 'Swing Strategy', but, opening and closing on the same day, and Scalping.

Regarding, the 'Swing Strategy', but, opening and closing on the same day, it follows the same rules. I was looking for an example from the 'weak list', but, today was very difficult, as so much was either oversold or going toward it, going into the day. However, if I had a stock (that was overbought on the daily), I would be looking to short it at around either 15.20 or 17.00, as these were turning points on the $INDU MACCI, 17.00 is cleaner, 15.20 is more aggressive. Now, I would only take the trade if my stock was below the mid price on the day, i.e. sellers had the upper hand, at that time.

The other type of Daytrading I am doing, is scalping. Now, I have thought about this, and it is really impossible to be able to explain this. It really would need demonstating, live. All I can say is that I am concentrating on 2 highly liquid stocks, in my case, AAPL and RIMM. You need very tight spreads and to be easily able to enter and exit. You need to be very decisive with this style. Grey1, informs me that this type of trading is not suitable to everyone's personality. We all have different 'makeups'. Personally, I love trading this style.

An additional point, is that you should be using Daytrading only as a means to cover any 'shortfalls', on your Swing's P/L. So, if your Swing's are down, say $300, on the day, then you Daytrade to make that up, so that, when your Swings do go your way, it is all bankable. However, therefore, you should'nt really Daytrade on days when your Swings are going your way, there is no need to. Having said that, I do still tend to scalp, however, the risk is very, very contained....and that is the key.

Hope this helps some.

Frank.

great thanks Frank thats exactly as i understood it, one further question if possible?

how did you determine those times on todays dow? im assuming they come from the cci, however i have a slightly different timings....were you looking at shorts at these times.

also always dangerous but i am assuming these are uk times?

thanks bd.

 

[brutusdog]

hi jason,

i read some of your posts in work earlier today, and i can safely say i have felt the same in the past.

where i am now, the last thing i want is Grey to hand over his engines and i trade off them blindly, i want, through work, to be able to develop my own, and surely this is the only way forward for any would be trader??

regards
Glen

in my view the working through and development of something enables the understanding and confidence required to operate it effectively.

 

[TheBramble]

where i am now, the last thing i want is Grey to hand over his engines and i trade off them blindly, i want, through work, to be able to develop my own, and surely this is the only way forward for any would be trader??

Glen, if I offered you a 90% W:L system, for free, would you take it? Or would you really want to graft one yourself?

My point being, there's never, ever, any sense to turning down a free lunch. And yes, they are more often than not, quite free.

Whether you have one or not, is what drives you.