This is a waiting game. I'm resigning my self to leaving it until next week unless Wall Street comes up with something.
Jon, thanks for the DJ tip. I calculate that it would have worked with a ratio 0f 2.5/1 between 1330 and 1630.
I am not able to monitor this, though. That is my problem. When I am on holiday next month I could try it out.
Jon, thanks for the DJ tip. I calculate that it would have worked with a ratio 0f 2.5/1 between 1330 and 1630.
I am not able to monitor this, though. That is my problem. When I am on holiday next month I could try it out.
This is a double-edged sword, though, isn't it? I have been thinking, like Tom, of shorting this morning, but the last 4H bar has made me think long again. If I was to enter a long trade and hedge it against the Dow and the Dow went up, I would be out of pocket, wouldn't I?
barjon
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Well, think of as an insurance policy (rather than a stop-loss perhaps) on which you expect to pay a premium. Sometimes, though, it'll surprise you and it'll pay you!
In your example if FTSE went up 20 and DOW went up 20 then you'd make a bit : £10 x 20 for FTSE = £200, £5 x -20 for DOW = - £100. That'd be FTSE trading strong.
Conversely if FTSE went up 10 but DOW went up 30 then you'd lose a bit : £10 x 10 for FTSE = £100, £5 x -30 for DOW = - £150. That'd be FTSE trading weak.
Remember why I started this!! You were long FTSE and thought it could fall back quite a bit and still have the up-trend intact. The price did fall back and you were a tad concerned that the pull back might be extensive and/or turn into a reversal. Thus, you set a stop below the current price which took you out and you counted your profit.
I suggested that you hedge it instead and showed that you'd have made a bit more money closing both trades at FTSE close despite FTSE having dropped. You could, of course have lost a little had FTSE traded weak from when you hedged. Let's say you decided to keep the trades going because you still felt FTSE was in up-trend. As of now FTSE is down to 5176 ( -69 from your 5245 exit point) and DOW to 10202 ( -163 from the hedge level).
So, long FTSE = -69 x £10 = -£690
short DOW = +163 x £5 = +£815
ok? Or clear as mud?
good trading
jon
Mr Flibble
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Hi Chaps I just wanted to apologise if I came over arrogant the other day. The FTSE almost made me pay dearly in the early morning session before going my way. I actually had to leave the house because my heart was pumping so fast. The moment you show any form of complacency in this market and arrogance then you've had it and I displayed these poor characteristics in the thread earlier. Sorry for offending anyone and I will try to post what my thoughts are in a more balanced way.
To explain I added to my position hugely at 5230 in the morning. I added to such an extent that as it rose to 5270 it almost caused a margin call. Even though I made a lot of money today in the market that kind of behaviour will only lead to one outcome -- total loss. Sometimes making money from foolish behaviour is the worst thing that can happen. I will now closely listen to the other members on this board who I know have been trading far longer than me and their longevity speaks volumes. Good luck all and thanks for all your inputs.
To explain I added to my position hugely at 5230 in the morning. I added to such an extent that as it rose to 5270 it almost caused a margin call. Even though I made a lot of money today in the market that kind of behaviour will only lead to one outcome -- total loss. Sometimes making money from foolish behaviour is the worst thing that can happen. I will now closely listen to the other members on this board who I know have been trading far longer than me and their longevity speaks volumes. Good luck all and thanks for all your inputs.
It did not register with me. You were, probably, too subtle. You have to come out with something really nasty to get under my skin.
Good trading, as always.
Hi Split - One reason I have expanded my swing strategies beyond the 3-bar method is that it sometimes only offers one entry point, the day the swing high or low is broken. But there are nearly always secondary entry points using other views: I plan to add to my short on either continuing momentum or a reaction upwards, and these would be valid first-time entry points too.
Hi Split - One reason I have expanded my swing strategies beyond the 3-bar method is that it sometimes only offers one entry point, the day the swing high or low is broken.
But there are nearly always secondary entry points using other views: I plan to add to my short on either continuing momentum or a reaction upwards, and these would be valid first-time entry points too.[/QUOTE]
Right and that is my consolation. My method is a trend following method and I should not expect it to spot the tops.
That makes me feel better!
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kimo'sabby
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Here's one. Daily candles, 1:1 target 5k, stop at the open of the last daily candle.
Xenophobia
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Cashed in my short before the open today as the market was not falling as it should have been. Indeed, these indications resolved today into a strong finish in London and more clearly in NY tonight. Looks like a bounce tomorrow and all this seems based on excitement over the US reporting season, price movements being eased by very low volumes: I suppose people are bargain hunting over there for the next financial period, it surely can't be based on either a strong economy or stock market, and therefore that this short rally will soon fade.
barjon
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I've still got the insurance in place (currently around -20 on ftse and +90 on dow - so net +25) and added a bit to the original long this morning at 5191.
Will be keeping an eye out for your whiplash, Tom
good trading
jon
My 4H method is not doing me too well at present, to the extent that I have made a long entry this morning, reverting to my intraday strategy. At present I have 7 points, better than a kick in the butt!
Yesterday I thought that the index was a bit oversold and waited for it to go to the averages but nothing happened before I closed for work and that was fortunate for me--since it rose sharply, as Tom said in his post!
My 4H is still trending down but I need my small TF to get me started on a short!
Yesterday I thought that the index was a bit oversold and waited for it to go to the averages but nothing happened before I closed for work and that was fortunate for me--since it rose sharply, as Tom said in his post!
My 4H is still trending down but I need my small TF to get me started on a short!
