Today makes outside day pattern (outside 24/09 that is) forming putative swing low - low printed below 23/09 and low 5073 of 24/09, while 25/09 is discounted as an inside day. Breach of 5171 tomorrow with maintenance of 5073 would suggest long. This time the outside day's close is high and aligns with the predicted price movement: I have moved my stops on the equity shorts very tight as the US seems so strong, and expect them to trigger and me to go long FTSE100 tomorrow.
Mr. G
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Tom - I would say that today's action obliterates the corrective days on 23rd and 24th. Today's high is lower than the high on 22nd so a buy above today's would agressive, right? I buy above the high of the 22nd would be less so IMHO.
Hi Mr. G - Nothing wrong with taking a more cautious view - I try to do thadt these days, not always fully. First potential entry for EOD traders would be simultaneous with breach of today's high, but that could occur as early at 5 past 8 tomorrow, then we could fall all day and violate today's low, which negates the long signal, for a big loss of 120pts.Safer to wait until no chance of the low being breached and then taking whatever is current price for the long at or near 4:30pm, assuming the high has been breached. Could even be less than 120 but still a valid signal. Stop would still be 5050.
More cautious again would be wait for continuation signal from breach of 22/09 high as you say, but where would you place stop? From high 22/09 to low 28/09 is big 140pts, but only another 20 on top of the more aggressive move above so probably worth the caution to reduce the risk: once 22/09 is breached it seems more sure we are going up. I hate outside days as swing points because the distance to the stop is so excessive. Where will you put your stop?
More cautious again would be wait for continuation signal from breach of 22/09 high as you say, but where would you place stop? From high 22/09 to low 28/09 is big 140pts, but only another 20 on top of the more aggressive move above so probably worth the caution to reduce the risk: once 22/09 is breached it seems more sure we are going up. I hate outside days as swing points because the distance to the stop is so excessive. Where will you put your stop?
Mr. G
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A fine question Tom, and one that I'm struggling with as I tend to get stopped out too early. I have them 30 points over/under my entry as that is how my risk management calculations work it out as opposed to a point on the chart. Maybe I need to look at things differently and place them at a point on the chart and have the calculator work out the position size on that basis. Perhaps I'm currently putting the cart before the horse, so to speak.
Stops are difficult. A distant stop like the present FTSE swing set-up suggests a lot of points, which suggests a small position. Its always my aim to put a stop at a level created by the market, so it really does have some potential as support/resistance if/when the market again reaches there, and provides TA-based proof that the original analysis is now superceded: good TA can be neutralised by market moves, but the market doesn't know/care about our personal risk levels, these are artefacts.
I am already scaling in to the FTSE long this morning as we barely breached yesterday's high. It would be nice to see the low holding and the 22/09 high breached later this afternoon for my position to reach full-size.
I am already scaling in to the FTSE long this morning as we barely breached yesterday's high. It would be nice to see the low holding and the 22/09 high breached later this afternoon for my position to reach full-size.
I'm well and truly stopped out of the long. Convincing two day push though 14EMA tells me to go short: so does breach of swing low 28/09 on 2 day swing chart -
but what do people take from the conventional 3 day swing chart? I had 28/09 as confirmed swing low but only 2 day move from there cancelled by two very negative days seems to neutralise that title. Are we in a downtrend without a true swing low yet? Are people already short?
but what do people take from the conventional 3 day swing chart? I had 28/09 as confirmed swing low but only 2 day move from there cancelled by two very negative days seems to neutralise that title. Are we in a downtrend without a true swing low yet? Are people already short?
barjon
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yeah, we could be in the ludicrous position of not having the up swing trend changing to down until we get below 4100!!!!on the other hand we might be getting our first 3 bar swing in the up move
I'm out of longs but not short and I'll still be assuming at least an attempt at trend continuation if we get our those 3 + bars until it fails.
good trading
jon
spreadrisk
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UKX
28/09/2009 - Swing low at 5051
01/10/2009 - Breach of swing low at 5051
Therfore we have a "Change of Trend" and short from 5051.
28/09/2009 - Swing low at 5051
01/10/2009 - Breach of swing low at 5051
Therfore we have a "Change of Trend" and short from 5051.
Hi spreadrisk - looks a good trade though outside the rule book, and I assume you would use 5171 as stop. Like I said last week, I hate outside days on swing charts - high and low are far apart. If I have been around Friday I would have gone short but more cautiously at 4988.
tenbobtrader
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looks like the swing low is in and rules followed to me
good post spreadrisk
3 down days printed unless my charts wrong
looks like the swing low is in and rules followed to me - hope you get a strong tail wind
outside day still printed a lower low
Andy
good post spreadrisk
3 down days printed unless my charts wrong
looks like the swing low is in and rules followed to me - hope you get a strong tail wind
outside day still printed a lower low
Andy
spreadrisk
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Well it looked like Marc Rivaland's rules were followed.
But he has just updated his web site and has NOT noted a change of trend
But he has just updated his web site and has NOT noted a change of trend
barjon
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spreadrisk/tenbobtrader
:smart: you're both dead right depending on how you choose to treat outside days which gave a lower low but also a higher high (higher than the previous "down" day on 24 September). If you ignored that one then the 1/10 bar might qualify, but then you've got to ignore the new high made on 30/9 albeit that it was less than cigarette paper thin. That's the trouble with rules !!
So, for me, I'm not short yet even if I live to regret it. I will look for a long if there's a further down day(s) with lower low and lower high on the usual break of assumed swing low bar high, but I'll be protecting quickly if it doesn't follow through.
good trading
jon
:smart: you're both dead right depending on how you choose to treat outside days which gave a lower low but also a higher high (higher than the previous "down" day on 24 September). If you ignored that one then the 1/10 bar might qualify, but then you've got to ignore the new high made on 30/9 albeit that it was less than cigarette paper thin. That's the trouble with rules !!
So, for me, I'm not short yet even if I live to regret it. I will look for a long if there's a further down day(s) with lower low and lower high on the usual break of assumed swing low bar high, but I'll be protecting quickly if it doesn't follow through.
good trading
jon
tenbobtrader
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Jon
fair point Jon,
I confess I did not notice that cigarette paper breach
your trend is still up and you are 100 % correct you :smart: asssss
"thats the problem with rules" ......... more problems without them imvho
"but I'll be protecting quickly if it doesn't follow through" .... good advice
good rest of weekend to you
later
Andy
fair point Jon,
I confess I did not notice that cigarette paper breach
your trend is still up and you are 100 % correct you :smart: asssss
"thats the problem with rules" ......... more problems without them imvho
"but I'll be protecting quickly if it doesn't follow through" .... good advice
good rest of weekend to you
later
Andy
Mr. G
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The outside day on the 28th counts as a swing low because it had a strong close and took out the high on the 24th. Could get repeat buy signals tomorrow. This is Marc's view BTW - I e-mailed him on this on Friday as we had a false buy signal that he alluded to in his IC column.He replied over the weekend.
Mr. G
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Well it looked like Marc Rivaland's rules were followed.
But he has just updated his web site and has NOT noted a change of trend
Probably because we haven't made a new high for the uptrend since the swing low.
tenbobtrader
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thats the point Mr G
we have
without the use of additional discretion
does not help an eod trader who sets orders for the next day
Jon posted this some time ago which will perhaps help new traders come up with a filter for similar bar sequences
Swing Trend (Stages of a change of trend signal)
Failure to make new high - first light
Penetration of potential swing low - second light
Penetration of substantive swing low - third light
Close below substantive swing low - fourth light
Ample time (and/or %age) below substantive swing low - fifth light
successfull first retracement - sixth light
Marc Rivailand uses the direction of the 14 sma, Rsi set on 5 in week tf and other major index correlation for a filter
might be wrong but method uses 1 point + - the pdh or l for entry order to backtest and forward test method taking every single signal
any other ideas ?
later
Andy
we have
without the use of additional discretion
does not help an eod trader who sets orders for the next day
Jon posted this some time ago which will perhaps help new traders come up with a filter for similar bar sequences
Swing Trend (Stages of a change of trend signal)
Failure to make new high - first light
Penetration of potential swing low - second light
Penetration of substantive swing low - third light
Close below substantive swing low - fourth light
Ample time (and/or %age) below substantive swing low - fifth light
successfull first retracement - sixth light
Marc Rivailand uses the direction of the 14 sma, Rsi set on 5 in week tf and other major index correlation for a filter
might be wrong but method uses 1 point + - the pdh or l for entry order to backtest and forward test method taking every single signal
any other ideas ?
later
Andy
barjon
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andy
you can look to see what's happening to the ftse constituents - or just the big hitters (top 15, say). On a quick scan I've got 3 having broken swing lows and another 3 near to doing so, but you'd have to a bit more thorough if you were going to use it.
If the big hitters are turning over it's usually a sign that the rest will follow but, like everything else, it's by no means infallible.
good trading
jon
you can look to see what's happening to the ftse constituents - or just the big hitters (top 15, say). On a quick scan I've got 3 having broken swing lows and another 3 near to doing so, but you'd have to a bit more thorough if you were going to use it.
If the big hitters are turning over it's usually a sign that the rest will follow but, like everything else, it's by no means infallible.
good trading
jon
