swingin' the ftse: 2008

[SuddenDeath]

FTSE100 tight range on last 4 weeks also very low volume, any views ? distribution before "sell in may" plunge

 

[black bear]

Stand by 1st thoughts

Talks and plans are going well

Nations have decided to give ground to the 7th Cavalry in the hope of a much better opportunity in the high ground later on. War parties around the 6000-200 level marked on the post above will be limited to small war parties fighting from pd highs only they will hold out and look for follow through at pd lows. (risk per war party 1 % intra day account) The nations think they will be at a disadvantage fighting the 7th Calvalry in Territory they have just fought over. Scouts have reported the 7th Calvalry have managed to errect some fixed defences which will make life very hard for their own lightly armed warriors. The 7th Cavalry only recently launched an assault on the 6000 area and are sure to be better prepared this time round.

The nations hope to draw the enemy away from their supply lines and inflict a total route in the opening minutes of battle which will be on ground of their choosing.

War parties in action at pdh over the coming days will harass the enemy and cause as much damage as possible in order that the main war party can rest up and be fully prepared for battle in the high ground. Their orders are to get in and out quick and only hold and press their advantage if the 7th Cavalry break from their quickly erected field Fort.

Nations battle plan will follow method of the below link in principal

T2W Day Trading & Forex Community

Charts marked and entry will be made contra in the short term trend (days) in red marked zone, Entry day will be a narrow range day and preferably a monday and the 1st of the month

FTSE100 tight range on last 4 weeks also very low volume, any views ? distribution before "sell in may" plunge

Hi unfortunate choice of name


Thats still me, not married to it, index over 1st sticky patch 6000-200

(multi charts on original post)

I have been fighting from high ground with small war parties over last few weeks

Dow could be wrong ended at the minute if your looking for support for your thoughts from that side of the water and looks to be making an attempt to hold its mirror or S (3 tops) a classic swing low (two NR7 days) that could COULD! give us a bit more to the upside.

Dow as made what looks like a classic 3-4 day pullback, Ftse waiting and watching in one of its holding patterns (range)

Ftse not closed below its pdl with any conviction and finds support where it should, yesterdays price action was clean and found suppport on bad news at pmh pwl & S and even formed a nice Bull pinbar in the 15 min tf which is still in play and stop would never have been looked at.

Dow breaks lower on a wide range bar....................... do not expect it to happen at a convenient time ...............................

Friday @ 7:30 would be good to do everyones(small move traders trying to get in cheap) nut in

Inflation data could be the match, interesting to see how Ftse reacts over next few sessions

Good trading all, hope everyone doing good :clover:


Andy

 

[SuddenDeath]

Dear Legendary Black Bear

I have tried to get my name changed , but to no avail,

Enjoy reading your posts

thanks

 

[pelzar]

I dont think we are going lower, I think we could see at least 6400 by late June or July! IMO the U.S indices (specificaly the s+p) will lead and the ftse will naturally follow!

 

[tomorton]

Hi pelzar - you could be right - but what do you see to make you think this?

tom

 

[tomorton]

Dow made strong upward move yesterday pm and I got out with gain by mid-afternoon UK time - this is a trader's market as we track sideways into congestion following the rally from mid-March: could be a good time to be out by the close, even on swing trades.

FTSE still looks confused so I am entering a sell on the Dow or S&P below yesterday's low (as soon as my internet connection allows me). Failure of US indices to breach high of 02/05 would confirm change to bear market.

 

[tomorton]

Sell order not triggered yesterday so same plan for today, level of order raised to Thursday's low, stop raised to Thursday's high. This is on the Dow as for me the FTSE shows no clear swing pattern at present.

I'm surprised the market just won't go down (the FTSE market obviously isn't confident and I keep seeing US rises on very light volume, unsustainable) and would be amazed if the high of the last US swing high, 02/05, is breached without a retracement.

 

[SuddenDeath]

I have heard that the FTSE100 is a commodity heavy index, so strength in commodities is driving it higher.

 

[barjon]

I have heard that the FTSE100 is a commodity heavy index, so strength in commodities is driving it higher.

hi, sudden death

The biggest weighting in ftse100 is the banks (who haven't been doing that well), followed by miners and oil (which have). Just hanging on to DOW coat tails I think.

good trading

jon

 

[barjon]

Sell order not triggered yesterday so same plan for today, level of order raised to Thursday's low, stop raised to Thursday's high. This is on the Dow as for me the FTSE shows no clear swing pattern at present.

I'm surprised the market just won't go down (the FTSE market obviously isn't confident and I keep seeing US rises on very light volume, unsustainable) and would be amazed if the high of the last US swing high, 02/05, is breached without a retracement.

tomo

you've been ploughing a bit of a lone furrow lately :cheesy:

i've been away and been neglecting the thread since i got back. will post and update over week-end.

hope you've been coining it

good trading

jon

 

[black bear]

Charts

Few Charts month week day & 4 hr

been fighting from the highs

no follow through

markets right as per

waiting for .......errrrrrrrrrrrrr



nothing !

 

[trigger]

Hi, there does not seem to be much volume to support this breakout

 

[SuddenDeath]

Hi Barjon, re sector weightings in ftse100...

hi, sudden death

The biggest weighting in ftse100 is the banks (who haven't been doing that well), followed by miners and oil (which have). Just hanging on to DOW coat tails I think.

good trading

jon

Dont the sectors get re-weighted I am guessing the bank sector has shrunk and bits of it have disapeared (NRK) BB. AL. RBS. HBOS, have halved or more, when do they get re-adjusted,

 

[tomorton]

Welcome back Jon, I've not exactly been coining it, finding these 1- and 2-day moves very challenging to trade the last few weeks. At least various systems and checks have stopped me overtrading - a system that does NOT give a signal can be a lifesaver.

 

[barjon]

Right where did I leave you then? Blimey, way back on 12 April (white vertical line on chart). We'd just had a short triggered on 11/4 which was worth 140 odd at its best, although you probably wouldn't have exited there. Should have manged 100+ for at least part of position.

Then a strong rise through that difficult 6000 level which changed the swing trend to up followed by six days of consolidation and then a long entry signalled on 25/5 at around 6079 - that should still be in play.

good trading

jon

 

[barjon]

Dont the sectors get re-weighted I am guessing the bank sector has shrunk and bits of it have disapeared (NRK) BB. AL. RBS. HBOS, have halved or more, when do they get re-adjusted,

Hi, sd

Each constituent has a different weighting in the index based on their capitalisations. You will see from the thumbnail that banks still figure highly in the top 30.

cheers

jon

ps: double click the image to expand

 

[tomorton]

Barjon wrote -

Then a strong rise through that difficult 6000 level which changed the swing trend to up followed by six days of consolidation and then a long entry signalled on 25/5 at around 6079 - that should still be in play.

good trading

jon[/QUOTE]


Jon, this raises an interesting dilemma for me. I agree with the long signal on 25/04. If I had been long from 6079 at that point, the stop I would have set (about 5951) would not have been triggered, but would I still be holding? I think I would have been shaken out either by the second successive down day, 30/04, or by taking profits as we passed 6200, or definitely by the 6 annoying congestion days starting 06/05. Are you or is any user of this thread still long from the 25/04 trigger? - you deserve every single point for holding your nerve if so!

 

[tomorton]

Sell order entered on FTSE100 below Friday's low. Stop will be Friday's high.

That said, the FTSE may well rise in early trade Monday and if it breaches Friday's high I will cancel and re-assess. Going short on an outside day extends the risk as it may not be a swing high and the stop will be further away. If the US makes Friday a swing high I will switch to them and short them instead.

 

[tomorton]

Observations on shorting risks, Monday -

1. Short FTSE100 swing trade, if Friday is swing high, would suggest entry at 6270, stop at 6349 = risk of 79 (1.3%). risk calculated on S&P or Dow in same way would be 0.8%.

2. FTSE also suggests possibility of Turtle Soup short, with entry at breach of 6275, stop at Monday's high, whatever that may be, having been established first: but it would have to be less than Friday's high of 6349, so must therefore be less than 1.3% as calculated above.

 

[tomorton]

Sell order below Monday's low. When will this market ever go down?