Swing trades

[inzider]

Yeah; Money management may be neccesarily to effectively execute an edge; But it is not the edge itself.

Similar to how you can't trade online without a computer. The computer isn't the edge though.

Hehe! You got me there....
Subtility is your best edge!

 

[piker]

Did I say martingale? No, I did't. Money managemet edge can be this, if coast to coast is 2000 pips and pivotal is bang in the middle, if you don't know which way price will head after touching pivotal, then how many times will you be able to lose in light of 1000 pip reward?

 

[virtuos0]

Did I say martingale? No, I did't. Money managemet edge can be this, if coast to coast is 2000 pips and pivotal is bang in the middle, if you don't know which way price will head after touching pivotal, then how many times will you be able to lose in light of 1000 pip reward?

Eh?

 

[inzider]

Your post is just plain stupid, but I'll humour you anyway.

Your friend is what we call in market terminology a 'lucky fool'. By the way you describe his gains and his methodology two things are clear, he is massively overleveraged and he has absolutely no clue how to trade.

If he continues to trade in this way he will lose every penny in the very near future.

I suggest you to keep respect while talking to me.... I think you are the one being stupid making the big shot nailing me and showing deep ignorance....

The point debates here is about if MM give you a key. I used this guy as an exemple for MM edge over trading. Trading whit this edge in hands he doubled is account in 3 days... investing for last 20 years over stock market making thousand a year. So you are FAR FAR away .... so far away.
(you post in forum, so I know..)

You speak loud but sound empty, beware of your ignorance in futur "friend"....

 

[piker]

What payout does BJack need to have for a player to benefit at the end of a pack if player loses all other hands?

 

[robster970]

I am sure I will get flames for it, but here we go. Order flow is random, it's been proven, so what you are trading is randomness when price hits a level. So your edge will have to be within money management, as you will struggle to ascertain situation in time. Example, price hits 1000, your experience tells you to go long, a second later you get 3000 contracts filled at 997.

No flaming here to be had. You're right that the order flow is random but the levels 'mean' something to many people and provide an area where supply is roughly equal to demand and ideal for a low risk entry whether it be a bounce or breakout. You set your SL accordingly. If you don't like breakouts or reversals then fine, that's your perogative.

If you want to play pullbacks on trends then you need to run the winners longer than you are doing. All I've seen is a return <1 risked which tells me you're going to be broke.

Incidentally, the analyst baggage you carry around is the thing hampering your trading.

I give in now.

 

[robster970]

How can money management give you an edge ? Thats impossible.

I think he means size of stop wrt volatility rather than any edge is the sense of selecting higher probability set-ups.

 

[virtuos0]

What payout does BJack need to have for a player to benefit at the end of a pack if player loses all other hands?

Eh?

 

[Black Swan]

GladiatorX, Rob, et al. This is probably dawning on you, as it dawned on me a while ago, but I feel that I should point it out:

You are all wasting your time with this guy.

Alright V2O, I did suggest up thread that we should simply 'allow' pikey to get on with his trading and record it (warts and all) on this journal space if he wishes...

 

[piker]

No flaming here to be had. You're right that the order flow is random but the levels 'mean' something to many people and provide an area where supply is roughly equal to demand and ideal for a low risk entry whether it be a bounce or breakout. You set your SL accordingly. If you don't like breakouts or reversals then fine, that's your perogative.

If you want to play pullbacks on trends then you need to run the winners longer than you are doing. All I've seen is a return <1 risked which tells me you're going to be broke.

Incidentally, the analyst baggage you carry around is the thing hampering your trading.

I give in now.

What did you see? 2 losses and 1 open trade. You guys probably lose. Over the years i've spoken to many "experts" on the net, none could provide any sort of proof of profitability trading fx and futures, this world is full of pretenders, I tell you what if you don't like this journal, then have enough discipline to not post here. I don't need advice from people that struggle to remain cool on the net. Thanks.

 

[piker]

I meant to say you probably never lose

 

[robster970]

I meant to say you probably never lose

I lose about 65% of the time.

 

[piker]

I lose about 65% of the time.

Exactly, so your edge is not in win/loss ratio, but in money management. You expect to lose more times in light of future returns being larger than costs of doing business. Hence my question about BJack, 2:1 you lose, 20:1 you win. I need to better my stop placements & targets & be more careful when to re-enter a trend, that is why so many lose, because it is extremely hard to achieve.

 

[robster970]

I need to better my stop placements & targets & be more careful when to re-enter a trend, that is why so many lose, because it is extremely hard to achieve.

Bingo! Right. I am just going to shut up, read only and let you get on with it now.

Good luck.

 

[piker]

Thanks. No need to "shut up", later tonight I will re-post a revised example of requirements + charts. But there will always be a chance for discretionary decision for entries, if market displays a different characteristic. 100% mechanical systems fail in time unless they are continuously tweaked to account for a changing ebb & flow. And I am not setting out to design a bot backed by endless money supply, neither am I planning to become a market maker, so stops will always be there.

 

[GladiatorX]

Exactly, so your edge is not in win/loss ratio, but in money management. You expect to lose more times in light of future returns being larger than costs of doing business. Hence my question about BJack, 2:1 you lose, 20:1 you win. I need to better my stop placements & targets & be more careful when to re-enter a trend, that is why so many lose, because it is extremely hard to achieve.

I'll say again; Its impossible to gain an edge in money management in the financial markets.

As a wise man once told me ' It just changes the distribution, without changing the bottom line '

The fact someone has a 2:1 risk reward and 75% win percent is a RESULT of their edge. Not the edge itself.

If you have a 1 risk: 9 reward, the chance of you getting a loss = 90% and the chance of you getting a win becomes 10% ... Unless you have an edge. Again; The money management is not your edge.

Hence 9 trades will give - 9 and then one winner + 9 = Breakeven - Commisions

:whistling

I too will now shut up and read

This isn't BlackJack; You don't have defined objective probabilities in trading.... The way to win is to have an edge that gives your a positive expectancy; The money management that makes P.E calculation is the result, not the reason.

 

[piker]

If you have a 1 risk: 9 reward, the chance of you getting a loss = 90% and the chance of you getting a win becomes 10% ... Unless you have an edge. Again; The money management is not your edge.

Hence 9 trades will give - 9 and then one winner + 9 = Breakeven - Commisions

Your above example is by no way based on any sort of statistical expectation, just because you have set an objective of 9:1 does not mean you will get only 1 win out of 10. Where did you get that from? What about 9:1 in following:

80%, 60%, 50%, 30%, even 20% win rate ones?

Now, what if your target=average loss x 30?

 

[GladiatorX]

Your above example is by no way based on any sort of statistical expectation, just because you have set an objective of 9:1 does not mean you will get only 1 win out of 10. Where did you get that from? What about 9:1 in following:

80%, 60%, 50%, 30%, even 20% win rate ones?

Now, what if your target=average loss x 30?

To have a 80% or 60% or 50% or 30% or 20% win rate ... You need an edge.

If you don't have an edge; You have a 10% chance.

Therefore once again Money management doesn't give you an edge.

You clearly don't understand what i'm saying and i'm not interested in your side of the story because i know what i'm saying is correct. You either take my advice and think about it for a minute or you decide to disagree, in which case you'd be wrong.

Money management can not give you an edge, it is impossible. I'm done on this topic.

This isn't opinion; It is fact. Money management doesn't provide an edge; No matter how you make your risk:reward, the distribution will differ but same bottom line. Unless you have a genuine edge. Risk:reward and % win percent are a RESULT of an edge. Not the edge.

If you still don't understand, then forget it, i can only say the same fact in so many different ways.

 

[piker]

Fair enough, where did you get 10% statistic if there is no edge present?

 

[piker]

If you buy in a bull Market with a stop based on weekly support level hold may that be an edge? Maybe it's the way forward for me, instead Of facing an ongoing dilemma where to place a stop every time 4 hour chart provides a buy signal.