Stock and other asset class picks

[BeginnerJoe]

Well, it's 43p today. Had you taken a 5 minute consideration for macro economics, it would have saved you loadsa money. Next time you have this kind of money to throw away, you can throw it in my direction and I will do a 5 minute macro economic analysis for you.

I can see the price going to 38p'ish before settling at 40p level. But all bet's are off if the 10% correction takes place at the end of QE2 in a few days.

 

[bbmac]

anything can happen, but over the timescale I have designated for the trade, 3-5years I was happy with the entry price (47p) ..it may well go to 38p I have no idea, but the trade has been taken @ 47p and I have a fixed time period or a profit target whichever is the sooner, so I will let it play out one way or other.


G/L

Well, it's 43p today. Had you taken a 5 minute consideration for macro economics, it would have saved you loadsa money. Next time you have this kind of money to throw away, you can throw it in my direction and I will do a 5 minute macro economic analysis for you.

I can see the price going to 38p'ish before settling at 40p level. But all bet's are off if the 10% correction takes place at the end of QE2 in a few days.

 

[bbmac]

Market likes the results of said review so far, price rising to 49.39...now just gotta see an upturn in economic conditions, the bank to outperform the market and some profits and dividends for the price to continue rising !

G/L

Absolutely. It seems to me that re LLoyds the new Chief Exec is getting all the 'known' bad news out the way at the front end of his tenure...his strategic review will be the 1st real test and that is published in 30th June, so will see how the market recieves that re the share price..of course the longer term 3-5 year horizon very much depends on how the economo/recovery goes over that time. Another note of interest is that his remuneration package really kicks in when the share price reaches £1.40.

G/L

 

[DionysusToast]

My target for Lloyds bank - 0.00

 

[JRP2891]

Fundamentally speaking the banking industry is in dire straights. Massive structural changes and overhauls have to take place before I'd ever touch that sector, and at the moment, there's no will to do it!

 

[scose-no-doubt]

There's some very well hidden toxic waste on those books. If there weren't, the price wouldn't still be so depressed.

 

[bbmac]

I have bought more LLoy shares @ 32.2p (see 1st post in this thread) ...again a 3-5year t/f with a target of 2:1 R:R making a 97p target in that t/f. I have lowered the target on the original purchase to 97p too making that now just over a 1:1 target.

This would be called averaging in if trading these rather than 'buy and hold' Lol

G/L

 

[scose-no-doubt]

May have been those contingent liabilities regarding the recent legal case that was depressing the share price.
Can't ever see it winding up and there's really only one way for it to go. Would like to know what else they have swept under the carpet though as price is still to low for me. Could be the dividend yield discounting though no? 10p dividend next year yields 30% lol

 

[new_trader]

I have bought more LLoy shares @ 32.2p (see 1st post in this thread) ...again a 3-5year t/f with a target of 2:1 R:R making a 97p target in that t/f. I have lowered the target on the original purchase to 97p too making that now just over a 1:1 target.

This would be called averaging in if trading these rather than 'buy and hold' Lol

G/L

I don’t normally like to comment when people have the courage to make live trade calls, but you ‘piled in’ to LLOY @ 47p and it went as low as 30p (approx) not long after that. I wouldn’t call -34% an impressive start for someone who mentions they have an ‘edge’ in every third post. You talk about a long time horizon, but you thought it was a clever trade when it went to 49p!

Didn't Spanish89 have a similar buy and hold methodology to this at one point?

 

[counter_violent]

I don’t normally like to comment when people have the courage to make live trade calls, but you ‘piled in’ to LLOY @ 47p and it went as low as 30p (approx) not long after that. I wouldn’t call -34% an impressive start for someone who mentions they have an ‘edge’ in every third post. You talk about a long time horizon, but you thought it was a clever trade when it went to 49p!

Didn't Spanish89 have a similar buy and hold methodology to this at one point?

Theres nothing wrong with taking multiple entries at different prices and as a matter of course it gives flexibility to alter the plan as time passes. Working a position.

If I were BB i'd consider buying some more when they get to 15p

 

[Liquid validity]

If I were BB i'd consider buying some more when they get to 15p

:cheesy:

 

[bbmac]

I have a technical trading edge in fx trading. ...Whether I have an edge in this type of speculation remains to be seen. This buy and hold of actual shares is based on non technical analysis. The t/f is 3-5 years so the oscillations don't matter. What matters is the profit target as outlined and the time horizon, as outlined.

I think it went as high as 50P + on the release of the strategic review from a low of 42p but as Merv the Swerv says, the share price has since been hit by headwinds (lol) taking it down as low as 28.5p in the recent market turmoil not helped by an inital drop caused by the Q2 results (-£3.5billion) with a whopping one-off £3billion set aside for PPP miss-selling.

This banking sector remains weak/vulnerable and the share price success and dividend is irrevocably linked to the overall economy. The questions are:

a. Is it cheap at this/these prices given the outlook over a 3-5 years period and current fundamentals ?
b. Can this share outperform it's market sector/the economy over that time ?
c. Given the current price and outlook does the price paid offer a realistic and achievable R:R target over the time horizon ?

G/L

I don’t normally like to comment when people have the courage to make live trade calls, but you ‘piled in’ to LLOY @ 47p and it went as low as 30p (approx) not long after that. I wouldn’t call -34% an impressive start for someone who mentions they have an ‘edge’ in every third post. You talk about a long time horizon, but you thought it was a clever trade when it went to 49p!

Didn't Spanish89 have a similar buy and hold methodology to this at one point?

 

[bbmac]

I absolutely will should such a circumstance arise.

So this is what it feels like to be an 'investor !' Lol

G/L

Theres nothing wrong with taking multiple entries at different prices and as a matter of course it gives flexibility to alter the plan as time passes. Working a position.

If I were BB i'd consider buying some more when they get to 15p

 

[counter_violent]

I absolutely will should such a circumstance arise.

So this is what it feels like to be an 'investor !' Lol

G/L

Out of interest, was purchase 1 the same quantity as 2 ?

Given the current market volatility would you be inclined to keep working the trade, to try and achieve a better overall position. Perhaps hedging the index on any down moves ?

 

[bbmac]

The 2nd purchase was bigger than the 1st and it remains an outright position with no hedges although I appreciate your point.

This share matched the criteria of the edge I am using over the time horizon outlined. The 2nd purchase was always planned should the price move against it in the short term so long as the edge's criteria was still met - This criteria matters more than the exact entry point within a given price range, re the edge used. A 3rd purchase is allowed for as part of the edge.

As I mentioned in a post above this one, it remains to be seen whether this edge performs in the live market (it is only the 2nd time I have used it with real money, so not a large live sample but you gotta start somewhere.)

G/L

Out of interest, was purchase 1 the same quantity as 2 ?

Given the current market volatility would you be inclined to keep working the trade, to try and achieve a better overall position. Perhaps hedging the index on any down moves ?

 

[counter_violent]

We need some charts on this thread

 

[counter_violent]

Here's hoping you see the humour.

 

[bbmac]

Lol

Here's hoping you see the humour.

 

[bbmac]

' ...The meek shall inherit the earth...' But don't the Brave retain the mineral rights ?

The bravest always make the most money, it's whether you see this current bearish market as just a bearish market or are there cheap buying opportunities for the time scale I have in mind, 3-5 years ?

G/L

 

[JRP2891]

I think you're at least a year/18 months too early bbmac.