Attached is the usual major charts for Stage Analysis and relative performance table and also a few extra charts of interest this week, which are the Shanghai Composite, Dow Transports and the Apple chart.
As usual I've also updated the Market Breadth charts in the other thread, such as the advance decline line, momentum index, new highs - new lows etc, so that we determine what the the weight of evidence from the market internals is suggesting:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/technical-analysis/147476-market-breadth-25.html#post2061376
There are a few interesting charts this week imo, one set in particular that stands out is the US 10 and 30 Year Treasuries charts, as they continue to test the lower support from the major Stage 3 range. I noted on Dec 18th that the US 30 year Treasuries chart was making a potential Stage 4A breakdown, and since then after initially bouncing around the 200 day MA, it's moved slightly lower, but has yet to breakdown completely below the major support, and is now below the August low on the 30 year chart, but still slightly above on the 10 year chart. So I continue to monitor these charts closely as a strong breakdown would carry stocks even higher and looks possible as the treasuries continue to weaken. So I'd rate the treasuries charts both in Stage 4A, which to be averted would need a reversal back above the recent swing highs. Otherwise the swing targets for the Stage 4 move are 136 on the 30 year chart and 127 on the 10 year chart imo.
The majority of stock indexes continued to breakout to new highs and confirmed they are in Stage 2 continuation moves. If you look at the rRelative 30 Week indicator at the bottom of the S&P 500 chart - which is my own custom indicator, that simply measures the distance that the price is above the 30 week weighted moving average. Currently the S&P 500 price is 5% above the 30 week WMA, which on a historical basis now puts the S&P 500 into the bullish zone - which is anything above 5%. My other custom indicator which measures the 30 week WMA positive or negative momentum is also positive and rising. And so although it feels like it should be pulling back to me, the evidence from the charts so far suggests sticking with it as the broad stock market is in Stage 2 and can stay overbought for a long time. But be aware that risk is now very high, as the short term breadth measures have reached extreme levels - which is never a good time to buy imo.
Copper's (HG) chart is beginning to interest me, as the price action is becoming more squeezed in it's Stage 1 range, which is over a year old now. The downtrend line has three strong touch points and the 30 week MA is rising, so for a trader entry I'm looking for a move into Stage 1B, which would be a close above the recent swing high and the trend line imo, and could give a fast move to test the top of the major Stage 1 range at the $4 level.
I included the Shanghai Composite chart this week as it's made a strong move off it's lows (short covering rally) and this week tested it's one year downtrend line and rolled over. The 30 week SMA has gone flat, and the relative performance versus the S&P 500 is below the zero line still, but has recovered significantly. So I'd rate it as in Stage 1 here.
