Stocks reversed the previous weeks gains and have formed a lower swing high on the S&P 500 daily chart and closed the week below the previous swing low, right on the rising 50 day moving average. However, it's still above the April high of 1442.38 and if it does break down further then it also has recent price support down to just below 1400, and the 200 day moving average is not much further below that at around 1370. So although the short term momentum might be waning from the last six months uptrend; from a stage analysis perspective we are still in Stage 2B, which is considered "Getting late in uptrend. Watch carefully. But still a hold." And if it starts closing below the 50 day MA next week then I'll give it a minus rating as well, which is an "Unexciting pattern in that Stage." But to move into Stage 3A it would have to close next week a bit below 1400 imo, to get below the rising 30 week weighted moving average.
Below the S&P 500 chart is the NYSE percentage of stocks above their 150 day (30 week) moving averages breadth chart - which shows that currently 67.01% of stocks are above their 150 day moving average. It's moved to Bear Alert status by falling back below the key 70% level, but it is still on a buy signal for time being as it would need to get below it's 30 week WMA to go to a sell signal, which is currently at the 60.45% level and would need approximately another 204 stocks to fall below their 150 day (30 week) moving averages in the NYSE.
The Nasdaq 100 is much closer to going into Stage 3A as it's currently well below it's 50 day MA and in Stage 2B-. It is still above it's two year uptrend line, but relative performance versus the S&P 500 has been falling since April and went negative on the weekly chart last week. So the Nasdaq 100 needs to have a strong rebound in the next week or so or it will move into Stage 3.
The German DAX is still the strongest of the stock indexes and has outperformed the S&P 500 by around 9% since the June low. It's a long way above it 30 week WMA and still above the March high, but it is also closing in on it's 50 day MA and is in Stage 2B.
Gold (GC) moved up the relative strength rankings to 2nd place as the mega cap stocks in the S&P 100 moved lower with the rest of stocks. But the Gold chart looks closely inversely correlated to the US Dollar Index (DX) chart at the moment, which is bouncing around at support from earlier in the year. The Dollar Index is trading in Stage 3, below it's 200 day MA, and the volume is still very weak on the recent consolidation. The 50 day and 200 day MA have also crossed, so a break below the September swing low would put it into a new Stage 4A imo. If that does happen then Gold and the other commodities like Copper will likely make continuation moves.
Copper (HG) again looks like an inverse chart of the Dollar Index on the daily chart. It's consolidating in a tight range after running into the resistance range from earlier in the year, but it's above it's 200 day MA, which is close to crossing with the 50 day MA and so I'd rate it in Stage 1 at the moment. To become Stage 2A I think it needs to close above 3.85 - which is above the swing high of the recent range. However, it would still have resistance at the 4 level to overcome before it has a bit of clear air.
30 Year Treasuries (US) are holding in there and could potentially break out of it's three month down trend this week. That would probably tip stocks to the down side, so it's a key chart to watch next week. If however, it holds and reverses again then I am looking for a close below the September swing low for it to move into Stage 4A. Currently though it's still in Stage 3 and so could go either way here. The 10 Year Treasuries (TY) Stage 3 pattern is much clearer, as it broke convincingly below it's 30 week WMA in August and has struggled to get back above it a few times since. The 30 week WMA is completely flattened and the price is near to it's 50 and 200 day MA currently, but it could also break out as has made a few higher swing lows since August, so a critical week ahead imo.
Attached are the updated major charts for your own analysis and below is the relative performance versus the S&P 500 table ranked by the Mansfield RS Daily reading in the final column, so that you can see what the movement was over the last week.
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