Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

[isatrader]

FTSE 350 Sector Relative Performance

Below is the latest UK FTSE 350 Sectors charts and Mansfield Relative Strength rankings. FTSE 350 Sector Oil Equipment Services & Distribution Index (^NMX0570) dropped from last weeks 1st place down to 7th this week, with FTSE 350 Sector Chemicals (^NMX1350) taking over the top spot.The other mover of note was FTSE 350 Sector Personal Goods which moved from 11th to 5th on the RS rankings.

Below is the full list in rank order and attached is the updated charts:

 

[isatrader]

Attached is the updated S&P 500 chart with the Advance Decline momentum indicators and my personal momentum gauges. For the bulls the 200 day MA of the Advance Decline line needs to break back above it's resistance at 16031.

 

[isatrader]

Futures Relative Performance

Below is the relative performance table for the major futures markets ordered by the strongest first using the Mansfield RS reading.

 

[isatrader]

Here's the updated major charts.

 

[isatrader]

US Industry Sectors & Sub-sectors

A few changes in the US Industry sectors since my last update, with Consumer Discretionary (XLY) moving into the top spot. Industrials (XLI) was the other positive mover, moving above Health Care (XLV) into four place but is still below it's zero line. So the the top 3 sectors are the ones to focus on still for the best RS picks.

Here's the latest rankings:

Below is the updated top and bottom US Sub-sectors. Home Construction has moved to the top of the strongest sub-sectors, but there's not much change at the bottom with Coal still the weakest sub-sector.

Top five strongest sub-sectors:

1. ^DJUSHB - Dow Jones US Home Construction Index
2. ^DJUSTT - Dow Jones US Travel & Tourism Index
3. ^DJUSHI - Dow Jones US Home Improvement Retailers Index
4. ^DJUSRP - Dow Jones US Recreational Products Index
5. ^DJUSCR - Dow Jones US Computer Hardware Index

Bottom five weakest sub-sectors:

1. ^DJUSCL - Dow Jones US Coal Index
2. ^DJUSPT - Dow Jones US Platinum & Precious Metals Index
3. ^DJUSMG - Dow Jones US Mining Index
4. ^DJUSPM - Dow Jones US Gold Mining Index
5. ^DJUSBS - Dow Jones US Basic Resources Index

 

[isatrader]

Futures Relative Performance

Below is the updated relative performance table for the major futures markets ordered by the strongest first using the Mansfield RS reading. Soybean Meal continues to be the best performer, but Gasoline has dropped down the list since my last look on the 16th and Soybeans has moved into second spot. So Soybean Meal (SM) and Soybeans (S) are the only commodities in the list currently outperforming the S&P 500, while Natural Gas (NG) and Coffee (KC) are still lagging at the bottom.

Below is the updated list and the weekly thumbnail charts

 

[isatrader]

FTSE 350 Sector Relative Performance

Below is the latest UK FTSE 350 Sectors charts and Mansfield Relative Strength rankings. FTSE 350 Sector Chemicals (^NMX1350) still leads the UK sectors. FTSE 350 Sector Oil Equipment Services & Distribution Index (^NMX0570) has recovered from it's drop a few weeks back and is now in third place in the rankings. There's been no change at the bottom with Industrial Metals, Food & Drug Retailers, and Mining in the bottom three spots.

Here's the Mansfield RS rankings table and the thumbnail charts:

 

[isatrader]

Top Relative Strength Stocks by Sector

To help break down the major industry sectors so that I can focus on the stocks with the best relative strength, I've started creating portfolios of each. I've started with the three outperforming sectors - Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Technology (XLK) and Financials (XLF) and below is the top 20 ranked stocks using the Mansfield RS reading of each sector.

The purpose of these rankings tables is that it is a quick way to scan for potential stocks that might meet the Weinstein criteria as by looking for the sectors with the best relative performance and then drilling down within the sector and doing the same will give me a much more focused pool of stocks to look at that meet at least the relative strength requirement of the method. From there I can then manually apply the other components of the method to find the best Weinstein candidates.

Consumer Discretionary (XLY)

Technology (XLK)

Financials (XLF)

 

[isatrader]

US Industry Sectors

Consumer Discretionary, Technology and Financials continue to be the only outperforming major sectors. Below is the updated list and attached is the updated weekly and daily charts for each.

Below is the top 10 ranked stocks by their RS reading for each of the three sectors this week.

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Top 10

Technology (XLK) Top 10

Financials (XLF) Top 10

 

[isatrader]

Attached is the updated major charts for analysis.

 

[isatrader]

S&P 500 Momentum

Momentum has continued to weaken on the weekly chart as it failed to get back above the 2011 highs which it managed to do in February. The 30 week weighted moving average momentum has also continued to move lower since it broke below it's 10 week MA in early April, and the distance from the 30 week WMA indicator has moved into it's Bull Neutral zone as price is only 1.7% above the 30 week WMA.

However, although there is a lot of negative signs on the chart, price is still above it's 30 week WMA which is still rising. So the Stage rating is currently a Stage 2B consolidation. A weekly close below 1340 area would signal the beginning of Stage 3A imo.

The medium term bias is still on long side currently, although short term it's looking negative for the time being, but there is a lot of support below the current price down to the 1290 area.

 

[isatrader]

Futures Relative Performance

Below is the updated relative performance table for the major futures markets ordered by the strongest first using the Mansfield RS reading. Soybean Meal (SM) continues to outperform the S&P 500 along with Soybeans (S) which has pulled back a bit this week. Lumber (LB) has moved up to 4th spot and it's RS reading is close to going positive which would back up it's Stage 2A breakout last week. So a potential trade there, but it's still got some resistance to work through from last year.

 

[isatrader]

US Industry Sectors

Health Care (XLV) and Consumer Staples (XLP) both moved above their Mansfield RS zero lines last week, and Utilities (XLU) has also made a notable move up, showing that the defensive sectors are coming back into favour.

 

[isatrader]

Futures Relative Performance

Below is the updated Futures Relative Performance. Soybean Meal (SM) continues to be the outperformer, but the 30 year (US) and 10 year Treasuries (TY) continue to gain strength and move up the rankings.

 

[isatrader]

A bit short of time this week so here's the thumbnails of the major charts for analysis.

 

[isatrader]

Attached is the major charts thumbnails for analysis. I've added the Mansfield relative strength rankings so you can see what's outperforming the S&P 500. Currently the Dollar Index (DX) tops the rankings with US 30 year and 10 year Treasuries also outperforming in their Stage 2 continuation move. I've also included the rankings of the major stock indexes of which the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) is the best place to be currently.

 

[isatrader]

US Industry Sectors

Consumer Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU) and Health Care (XLV) are showing the best moves up in relative strength, whereas Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Technology (XLK) are still hanging in there. Energy (XLE) continues to be the worst performing sector. So the more defensive sectors continue to be back in favour for the time being.

 

[RUtrading]

Hi Everyone

Does anyone use MetaStock Software and actively using the Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis method? I am trying to set things up to look at some chats but still learning how to use the MetaStock Software.

 

[mfoconnor]

isatrader, are you on vacation. We miss your postings.

 

[isatrader]

isatrader, are you on vacation. We miss your postings.

Kind of. I've been taking a break for the last month or so, as the S&P 500 moved into Stage 3A in May. So I'm letting my positions ride for the time being through the volatility, as from my observations of the method you need to give the market time to carve out a new range in Stage 3, before it either fails and becomes a Stage 4 downtrend or breaks out again above the high into a Stage 2 continuation like the US Treasuries have done since May.

So I've become a bit more defensive with my portfolio and replaced any stopped out stock positions with positions in the Dow 30 Index, as the large caps tend to be less volatile.

I will start posting more regularly again soon.