Spread Betting the Wall Street Rolling Daily

[mobanded]

OH Gawd it looks like it wuz all T2W member's fault

Should we admit it ?

well no

What is it with you? Do you get major satisfaction by critisising and being sarcastic. I don't need it and this will be the last time I ever respond to whatever you write. A suggestion - try commenting constructively.

 

[Ross Spur]

What is it with you? Do you get major satisfaction by critisising and being sarcastic. I don't need it and this will be the last time I ever respond to whatever you write. A suggestion - try commenting constructively.

You have to expect a bit of joshing and banter on here, mobanded.

FWIW, which probably isn't much, your reasoning is typical of someone who hasn't been trading for long. That's not meant to be an insult, because we've all been there, hopefully not going bankrupt before we worked out a more sensible way of SB-ing.
You mention trying to 'impress' people on here. Even if you'd gone long and the Dow had shot up by 500pt, I don't think anyone would have thought more than you'd been lucky. On the other hand, if your calls made about 50 undramatic points every day for a month we'd have every reason to think you knew what you were doing.

Unless you just like gambling and have £2k to spare, why not stick to £1 or £2 a pip, or paper trade for a while?.

 

[mobanded]

mo

You haven't said very much about your system but your last post seems to read as though if identifies the trend for you and you then move into discretionary trading rather than following any system signal(s). I only say that because if your system was giving you such entry and exit signals I don't think you would be talking about "expected" "should have" "would have" etc.

If your system is giving you such entry and exit signals then why not use them to take your profit or loss - that'll give you your stop loss even though it might not suit those who like to restrict their loss to a known amount.

jon

Hi Jon

My basic system gives an indicator that projects the direction of the Dow daily. After that I attempt to make a profit by spreadbetting the same direction. I have sufficient faith in my system to believe a profit will come if I do not use a stop loss. However, what happens every time I make a bet is that the SB company I use always places an automatic stop based on whatever my account balance can sustain. Initially I try to get the direction correct, I place a bet in that direction and if it pays off with a suitable profit then I take it. If it dosen't I put on line the balance on my account to sustain any losses. My experience from testing my system on paper and actually trading at £10 a pip is that a profit has always come if I wait long enough. Another factor which is of great help is that the Dow has been ranging. Add this to the fact that only if the Dow goes in the opposite direction to my indicator by 200 points do I get done. In the meantime my account has a maximum of £2k. Any excess is transferred to my bank to cover for the day when I get it completely wrong. Hopefully, if that day arrives I will have banked more than my original £2k. At this moment I have banked my initial investment of £2k (in reality I returned the money I had borrowed on my credit card - (I was lucky but I like to think my system helped)),and the money I am using is all profit. Even with a loss of £3 to 4 hundred on my current position I am still about £1500+ in front.

I appreciate what other commentors are saying, especially with regard to stop losses, but I have lost lots of money by using them and I get particularly p****d off when the market turns moreorless immediately after my stop loss has been broken. I have wondered more than once whether I have been unlucky or if there is more to it.

I think I have a workable system that will show good profits. Yes it is high risk but I am prepared to live with that. My maximum loss during yesterday's trading was in excess of £900 and I was comfortable with that - if it had been say £1700 or more I might have cracked but I will not know unless it happens. Although I need to place more faith in my system , I will never follow it blindly - if I had done so yesterday profits would have been substantial. I will always maintain the option to overule whatever my system tells me.

Finally there is a lot more to my makeover than simply blindly following a system. I spend an awful lot of time reading financial media. My day consists of watching a combination of Bloomberg and CNBC TV and reading all sorts of emails which can point me in market direction.

Anyone who thinks I am beginner is doing me an injustice. I have spent my professional life in finance, (not as a trader) but as an accountant and I am looking for something which is different from the accepted methods of spread betting. If I am wrong then so what, if I am right then my world is about to get much better.

Mobanded

 

[mobanded]

You have to expect a bit of joshing and banter on here, mobanded.

FWIW, which probably isn't much, your reasoning is typical of someone who hasn't been trading for long. That's not meant to be an insult, because we've all been there, hopefully not going bankrupt before we worked out a more sensible way of SB-ing.
You mention trying to 'impress' people on here. Even if you'd gone long and the Dow had shot up by 500pt, I don't think anyone would have thought more than you'd been lucky. On the other hand, if your calls made about 50 undramatic points every day for a month we'd have every reason to think you knew what you were doing.

Unless you just like gambling and have £2k to spare, why not stick to £1 or £2 a pip, or paper trade for a while?.

Hi Ross

Thank you for the above. I hope my response to Jon is suitable for you also. You are probably right about my sensitivity but I do get annoyed with anyone who seems to be constantly negative. Anyhow point taken.

With regard to gambling, I am not sure whether or not I am. I never bet on the horses, football or anything like that but I got excited by spending £50 and getting a futher £150 to gamble on online/tv roulette. I lost my original £50 and haven't been back since. I put that down to the nights when I can't sleep (probably due to actively thinking about the following day's Dow).

If I didn't spreadbet at at least a tenner a point I would not bother. I am not a rich person, I am comfortable and losing £2k would not be the end of the world. I have gone through the 50p and £1 phase and I have lost hundreds of pounds by following spread betting tipsters and buying complex trading packages.

Now I have a simple system that I believe works I will either make a very good profit in a short time or lose a maximum of £2k.

Regards
Mobanded

PS - I will not, in future, be giving details of my personal bets. I will keep informing on my current open long position on the Dow but from Monday it will be a forecast by 10 a.m. of projected Dow direction for the day.

 

[tomorton]

Well done for the introspection Mob. You have to know yourself before you can understand the market. We may not know what the market will do tomorrow, but we definitely must know what we will do.

Keep at this. If you haven't strict rules for position entry and management as barjon was implying, I am sure with your attitude you will soon develop some that stand an objective test.

 

[barjon]

..................I think I have a workable system that will show good profits.............

Mo

From the description you give I don't think you have a workable system at all. What you do have is something that gives you an important starting point - the trend direction - and I will accept, for the moment, that it is sufficiently robust to be accurate more often than not.

From then on you are in discretionary mode for your actual trading, deciding when to enter and what profit to take or what loss (none, it seems, other than the occasions when your account is wiped out), with all the vagaries that are associated with that.

You said in your earlier post that you should have taken 12 points profit when it came at one stage. Hand on heart now, would you really have taken it do you think, or would you have stayed in on the basis that your judgement or system signal was eventually coming right? Or maybe you would have earlier breathed a sigh of relief and closed it at break even?

Even if you can hand on heart say you would have taken it at that stage, it would still be a piddling return in relation to the risk you were running. You're an accountant and must be pretty familiar with risk and return analysis - what risk would you advise your clients to run for a return of £120?

jon

 

[leonarda]

you should listen to what some of the guys are saying here... as otherwise I think you may make a bit at least until the £2k goes bang, or you may not...but if you think about that statement it's really "gambling" and not a trading system.
Do you want to have a bit of fun and maybe make a grand or so if you're "very lucky"? or do you want to develop a trading system to create a nice pot of money (~£100k) in 5-10 years?
You should think and admit to yourself what you are doing.

 

[bedsit]

Agree. I would wish you good luck, but really Mobanded - that's not the right way (no offence intended)
Thinking of an analogy. If somebody was trying to jump out of a window you wouldn't wish them good luck if you wanted to help. You'd rather try to persuade them not to do it.

 

[mobanded]

Mo

From the description you give I don't think you have a workable system at all. What you do have is something that gives you an important starting point - the trend direction - and I will accept, for the moment, that it is sufficiently robust to be accurate more often than not.

You are making assumptions, nothing wrong with that but if you had the full details of my system I think you may change your mind. Before you ask the answer is No - not that I am averse to making punters aware of how I do it but I am very much against giving the opposition (Spread Betting Company's) any further advantage to what they already have.

From then on you are in discretionary mode for your actual trading, deciding when to enter and what profit to take or what loss (none, it seems, other than the occasions when your account is wiped out), with all the vagaries that are associated with that.

Half and half. In addition to the trend detector I apply further criteria in an attempt to achieve 'best timing'. It is the closing deal where I use my discretion.

You said in your earlier post that you should have taken 12 points profit when it came at one stage. Hand on heart now, would you really have taken it do you think, or would you have stayed in on the basis that your judgement or system signal was eventually coming right? Or maybe you would have earlier breathed a sigh of relief and closed it at break even?

Hand on heart I can say I would have taken the 12 points because it would have given me an edge (ie a £120 profit) on further daily bets. I do NOT restrict my trades to one a day; if I can get in and out with small profits then I will do it. The trend indicator is primary, secondary is an indicator(s) as to when to place the bet. For example, if the trend indicator suggests going Short at a certain level (given as a number) in the index, and the index goes in the opposite direction for x points then, to my mind, that suggests a better opportunity to make a Short trade than the initial indicator gives. Sorry, but that is as much as I can reveal without giving the full system. Hope this makes sense.

Even if you can hand on heart say you would have taken it at that stage, it would still be a piddling return in relation to the risk you were running. You're an accountant and must be pretty familiar with risk and return analysis - what risk would you advise your clients to run for a return of £120?

I understand risk and return analysis and I deliberately ignore this (stupid or what!). When I said in earlier answers that I do not use stop losses I could have added that my view is to find a system that makes a consistent profit and whether or not it complies with conventional criteria is immaterial to me. If I fall on my face so be it.

Mobanded

 

[barjon]

mo

ok, so a couple of points for you to think about without necessarily replying.

What do you do if your trend indicator and signal have put you in but price goes against you to a sufficient degree for your trend indicator and signal to change tack and suggest you should be trading the other way? I don't know if that's likely, of course, but since you started off talking about daily trades I am assuming your system is giving you the daily trend.

Secondly, since your exits are discretionary, I'll accept your hand on heart assurance only if you have really done this in real time in your trading. You later on in the same post talked about would've taken 6 points at a later stage so it does look to me that a bit of hindsight is creeping in. I'm not trying to be clever here, just emphasising that there's a whole lot of difference in seeing places where you could have done something on a historical chart and actually seeing it in real time and doing it then. If you're happy that you're robust here then ok.

cheers

jon

 

[mobanded]

you should listen to what some of the guys are saying here... as otherwise I think you may make a bit at least until the £2k goes bang, or you may not...but if you think about that statement it's really "gambling" and not a trading system.
Do you want to have a bit of fun and maybe make a grand or so if you're "very lucky"? or do you want to develop a trading system to create a nice pot of money (~£100k) in 5-10 years?
You should think and admit to yourself what you are doing.

Hi
If, among the number of trading systems I have researched and backed up with active trading, I had found a system that would provide me with a nice pot of money in years to come then I would be using it. However I have discounted nearly every fully published system because they all have one drawback - spread betting company's are aware of these systems and know what to expect from the client who is using them. Although I have seen no evidence that SB companies use computer software to track these various known systems, I feel they probably do, and in doing, it is a short step to identifying clients who use the system. A nice little/large earner for them. Have you ever been stopped out of a trade where you have chosen a stop loss carefully (ie not obvious stop losses) only to find the market turned shortly after - I put that scenario down to more than bad luck.

I have to admit I do not know if I am a gambler - yes I get a kick out of 'winning',not an overall full blown orgasm (at 68) you understand, more a pleasant feeling of job well done. Yes I do get concerned when the market goes against me, but not a trembling out of control shaking; I take the view that if I am rejected/losing one night then there is always another opportunity the following day.

I like to think that my reasoning is sound (to my mind); I am reducing the possibility of losing by applying my own criteria; it is not known to SB companies and, combined, I believe they give me an edge.

So, if after what I have written, do you still think I should admit to myself that I am a gambler? It is not important to me to consider whether or not I am a gambler. I know in my own mind I have reduced the risk of losing (not eliminated it) as much as I feel is appropriate and the resulting trade (gamble) is acceptable to me.

Mobanded

 

[Pat494]

Hi
. However I have discounted nearly every fully published system because they all have one drawback - spread betting company's are aware of these systems and know what to expect from the client who is using them.
Mobanded

It's not only hardly likely the SB companies do as you suggest, I would say it would be virtually impossible to monitor 1000s of systems.

A bit of paranoia seems to have clouded your thinking, although they do seem to hunt stops a little but only by exaggerating rises and falls. That would be quite sufficient to catch a lot of punters and fill their coffers. If you think they care a less about the small fry like yourself then I suggest you talk it out with someone sensible before its too late.

 

[mobanded]

mo

ok, so a couple of points for you to think about without necessarily replying.

What do you do if your trend indicator and signal have put you in but price goes against you to a sufficient degree for your trend indicator and signal to change tack and suggest you should be trading the other way? I don't know if that's likely, of course, but since you started off talking about daily trades I am assuming your system is giving you the daily trend.

Secondly, since your exits are discretionary, I'll accept your hand on heart assurance only if you have really done this in real time in your trading. You later on in the same post talked about would've taken 6 points at a later stage so it does look to me that a bit of hindsight is creeping in. I'm not trying to be clever here, just emphasising that there's a whole lot of difference in seeing places where you could have done something on a historical chart and actually seeing it in real time and doing it then. If you're happy that you're robust here then ok.

cheers

jon

Hi jon

I do not mind giving answers to your questions, in fact I am enjoying our exchanges and reading your comments and, you are giving me reasons for thought.

My trend indicator is capable of multi forecasts but I use only one per day and stick with it. I prefer to try and keep it simple. If I make multiple bets during the day they are nearly always based on the initial indicator and trade bet being broken in the wrong direction and the previous trade being closed at a profit. If that happens then I will get back in using my secondary indicator(s), BUT ALWAYS in the direction of my initial trend indication. I think this is better described as a 'pull back'. If I get out at a profit and the index continues in the same direction (ie more profit) I live with it and do not attempt to get back in later during the day if it continues to move in the same direction.

On the first potential profit of 12 pips. I am fairly certain I would have taken them for no other reason than I know how I normally trade.

On the second potential profit of 6 pips. I am absolutely certain I would have taken it, for the following reasons:
1. the Dow had recovered sufficiently to get me back to profit, after a period of loss, and, yes I was nervous about it falling back again (which of course it did).
2. this is the main reason I know I would have sold - the Dow had gone through the 1.30pm timeline with no major announcements and was approaching the 2.30pm opening in the States. My experiences of trading the Dow at such times has been , in the main, negative; so I avoid being in the market at such times. I also knew there were some options expiring which would probably cause market fluctuations.

Regards
Mobanded

 

[mobanded]

Agree. I would wish you good luck, but really Mobanded - that's not the right way (no offence intended)
Thinking of an analogy. If somebody was trying to jump out of a window you wouldn't wish them good luck if you wanted to help. You'd rather try to persuade them not to do it.

Hi Bedsit

Talking analogies.

I was listening to comedians at the Apollo last evening. One of them, as part of a funny story about a friend in hospital , said "I do hope you get well, but if you don't I wish you a peaceful and painless death during your sleep."



Regards
Mobanded

 

[Ross Spur]

I'm struggling to follow your thinking now, Mob. All this talk of taking 6pt but being comfortable at -100pt just doesn't make sense. If you are really aiming for 6 or 10 points on the Dow/YM, which virtually qualifies as 'noise', why not use a limit order?

 

[Lord Flasheart]

Mobanded. Im afraid Im not happy with what you have posted. You are happy to sell a system that leaves trades in over the weekend? You dont have a stop and dont say what your target is. You also state thats S/B firms monitor systems. Im really beginning to think you know very little about trading. You clearly have a lot to prove. There is a thread I started to warn people of such people and their attempts to get money from others. So far any trader with any experience would never pay for such,however its easy to dupe newbies out of their cash. I hope im wrong but this isnt looking too clever

 

[mobanded]

I'm struggling to follow your thinking now, Mob. All this talk of taking 6pt but being comfortable at -100pt just doesn't make sense. If you are really aiming for 6 or 10 points on the Dow/YM, which virtually qualifies as 'noise', why not use a limit order?

Hi Ross Spur

I'm sorry if it dosen't make sense to you so let me make another attempt at explaining my logic for taking a six point profit.

I went into the market buying the Dow at 10239 (09.53 am). At some point between making the initial trade and it returning to 10245 at about 2.29pm, the Dow dropped to about 10190, at which point I would have been nearly £500 down. The fact that the Dow recovered to 10245 (a 6 point profit)at 2.29pm and my aversion to being in the market at times of wild known fluctuations (nearly every trading day when it opens at 2.30pm UK time, sometimes when announcements are made at 1.30pm UK time and also sometimes at 3pm) would have made me happy to get out with any profit.

I was not aiming for a 6 point profit, it was simply opportune to take the profit without running the risk of the 2.30pm opening fluctuations. I do not understand why this does not make sense to you

Regards
Mobanded

 

[mobanded]

Mobanded. Im afraid Im not happy with what you have posted. You are happy to sell a system that leaves trades in over the weekend? You dont have a stop and dont say what your target is. You also state thats S/B firms monitor systems. Im really beginning to think you know very little about trading. You clearly have a lot to prove. There is a thread I started to warn people of such people and their attempts to get money from others. So far any trader with any experience would never pay for such,however its easy to dupe newbies out of their cash. I hope im wrong but this isnt looking too clever

Hi Lord Flasheart

If you read my posting No. 58 you will see I have repudiated my original intent to sell this info. An extract is given below:

So, just to ensure that you will believe what I am about to say, I would like to make it absolutely clear that my intent to make money by selling the system (have a laugh if you want, I probably deserve it) are now well and truly dead. Not because I don't believe in my system but because I can't handle the thought of anyone paying for advice which costs them more money if my advice is wrong.

I did not say that SB firms monitor systems. My exact words were (posting No 71) " Although I have seen no evidence that SB companies use computer software to track these various known systems, I feel they probably do, and in doing, it is a short step to identifying clients who use the system. that although I did not have any proof, I believed SB firms do monitor "

At the end of my ten day period I will be out of here, win or lose so please give me the courtesy of waiting a little longer and then perhaps you will be able to say, "I got him wrong, he is a genuine guy, only a little bit misguided". Or perhaps you might say "This guy has bucked the known safeguards and come out top after all".

 

[Lord Flasheart]

Mobanded. All we want is you to be genuine.From that we can work both ways. I will watch and good luck

 

[barjon]

...................My trend indicator is capable of multi forecasts but I use only one per day and stick with it...............

Mo

OK - as I understand it, you have held a long trade open from Friday. So Monday's gonna be no problem if your indicator says you should be long, but what if it says you should be short? Are you just going to ignore the indicator in which you have great confidence?

cheers

jon