Hi
Yesterday I put pressure on myself which I found difficult to handle. This pressure was not because of my personal trading, which at one point, was in excess of £900 down; it was because I was making decisions (or should I say the lack of them) based on an ultimate objective to prove to you lot on T2W that my system is good. So, just to ensure that you will believe what I am about to say, I would like to make it absolutely clear that my intent to make money by selling the system (have a laugh if you want, I probably deserve it) are now well and truly dead. Not because I don't believe in my system but because I can't handle the thought of anyone paying for advice which costs them more money if my advice is wrong.
So let me tell you about yesterday from my point of view:
At about 9 ish when I got out of bed I looked at my system and it indicated to me that the trend on the Dow would be down (answered later!) and that is the way I should place my bet. However, at the same time my breakfast was ready and I went to have it. When I returned from breakfast the Dow had dropped by about 40 points. I was now in a situation where my breakfast had cost me a decent profit which would have been enough for me to close the deal and finish for the day.
So, why did I, after my system indicated a downward move, place a bet on the long side? The truth is because I was placing too much emphasis on my 'audience' on T2W and felt pressure to get a profit regardless. In other words I was being an “********” - not certain that word is allowed and if it isn't I hope one of the editors will replace it with 's. When the Dow seemed to stagnate around the 10239 I expected it to regain the 40 points or so that it had lost up to that point. What happened was the Dow gained about 12 points which I should and would have taken if I wasn't transfixed on making a huge profit to impress my T2W audience. So, at that point the Dow turned and went south and it had me captive. Later during the trading day the Dow came back and my spreadbet was in profit (about 1.28 pm) just before the official opening at 1.30 pm, I could and would have taken a 6 point profit, had it not been for my need to impress my audience at T2W. When the Dow opened and went further south I knew it was going to be a long day and by 9.00 pm when it closed I was badly in need of a glass of savignon blanc.
So to my analysis of yesterday:
1. My system told me the trend would be down and I should make only bets that were short. I ignored it and paid the price. Lesson learned (I hope). I am sorry if anyone followed me and got out at a loss, but I did say I would never close a losing bet and that is still the case. I haven't looked at my account today but I think it is down about £3-400.
2. On Monday I will stay in the bet until such time as I make a profit or suffer the alternative.
3. For those of you who extol the virtues of a stop loss I would offer a question - “Where should I have placed my stop loss”? And give various scenarios: Anything up to a 40 point stop loss would have got me out and saved me money at the close. Anything over a 40 point stop loss would have got me out and, in my view because the market came back, would have cost me money. If I had used a 90 point stop loss I would have lost £900 or so, because the market came back some 50/60 points afterwards. Sorry, if I am being vague with numbers, my sb company is currently doing updating and I can't access them.
So, where do I go from here? I will continue with a daily update on what I am doing but will no longer attempt to impress. I will stick to my system which gives me an indication of the direction in which the Dow will trend. I will publish the trend as I see it by ten o'clock each morning but I WILL NOT feel under any pressure to publish my own trades. I will keep you appraised of how my existing trade (long at 10439 for 10 pips/£10). By the way you better add a further £18.87 to the loss because that is what I was charged for rolling it over.
Another point to taken into consideration with my system is that just because I have an indication of the trend it does not mean I follow it religiously as a continuous strategy. What I mean by this is that if I make a reasonable profit (no fixed amount) I will take it and wait to get back in if the market trends in the opposite direction. If I had used and stuck to this criteria yesterday I would have made money.
Onwards and upwards!!!
Mobanded
