shadowninja
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That reminds me. *goes off to call the barber*
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trendie
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"A good summary of the black swan and fat tail problem is this quote: "It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so" (Mark Twain?)."
"Under extreme stress black swans and fat tails seem to flourish. Events that according to the models should only happen once in a million years may happen several times in one week."
Black Swans Fat Tails and Financial Markets
while we are enthralled with your exceptional trading so far, spanish89, is there not even the slightest thought at the back of your mind that one day, the market just wont come back? I wont bore you with the LTCM saga.
good luck anyway, and keep at it with your clearly personal style. :cheesy:
"Under extreme stress black swans and fat tails seem to flourish. Events that according to the models should only happen once in a million years may happen several times in one week."
Black Swans Fat Tails and Financial Markets
while we are enthralled with your exceptional trading so far, spanish89, is there not even the slightest thought at the back of your mind that one day, the market just wont come back? I wont bore you with the LTCM saga.
good luck anyway, and keep at it with your clearly personal style. :cheesy:
ivantchourilov
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i think everyone starts off like this to some extent. massive losses run away and you are gone. i personally have to say i have experienced this... wouldnt it be painful if oil did jump to 153. spanish imagine you went short while ago, at 130 and had a stop loss a 147 or something... ouch... good luck dude 
Lightning McQueen
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i think everyone starts off like this to some extent. massive losses run away and you are gone. i personally have to say i have experienced this... wouldnt it be painful if oil did jump to 153. spanish imagine you went short while ago, at 130 and had a stop loss a 147 or something... ouch... good luck dude
A previous thread of spanish's that was similar in events of which you describe.
Oil At $138.80, I Sold At $135.67---- Should I Hold Or Cut Loss Now????!!
Mr. Charts
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But that was before he was an expert !
Mr. Charts
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Do they call them Black Swans because they're covered in oil?
Next time are you going to set a profit target on your crude shorts of $70 to maximise profits?
Will that be the next step in your development as a trader?
Next time are you going to set a profit target on your crude shorts of $70 to maximise profits?
Will that be the next step in your development as a trader?
spanish89
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Ive Had ******* Enough Of ****** Playing It Safe N Not Being Greedy Enough!!!
Im Missing Out On A Few 100quid Every Single Day Just Because Im Not Being Greedy Enough And Its ****** Winding Me Up Now!!!
From Now On Im Not Gna Use Any ****** Targets, Im Just Going To Go All In Gamble From Now Everytime And Il Either Go Bankrupt N Lose Everything Or Double Up Everyday!!!!
Im Missing Out On A Few 100quid Every Single Day Just Because Im Not Being Greedy Enough And Its ****** Winding Me Up Now!!!
From Now On Im Not Gna Use Any ****** Targets, Im Just Going To Go All In Gamble From Now Everytime And Il Either Go Bankrupt N Lose Everything Or Double Up Everyday!!!!
Depth Trade
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Depth Trade
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You just made money in an impossible market.
This next few weeks will test everyone, it's going to be false Long USD set-ups all day and night.
These position are going to go right in everyones faces, the USD just spent months attempting at strenghts, only to be slammed right back down again. All this pressure that build up and couldn't strengthen USD is going to snap back, it's going to Suck the void of orders and hit fall.
Talking Oil 160+, Gold over 1k
What was about to happpen 3 months ago is going to happen.
This next few weeks will test everyone, it's going to be false Long USD set-ups all day and night.
These position are going to go right in everyones faces, the USD just spent months attempting at strenghts, only to be slammed right back down again. All this pressure that build up and couldn't strengthen USD is going to snap back, it's going to Suck the void of orders and hit fall.
Talking Oil 160+, Gold over 1k
What was about to happpen 3 months ago is going to happen.
Depth Trade
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spanish89
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Its not an impossible market though mate.., for the last 3weeks its been the easiest market ever to trade and make so much money from!
I made every single forecast correct about the oil, every singe day, day after day...
But because the little capital i have is all the money i have in the world, i just am having to take a few hundred max most days, when i could potentially quite easily be getting into the £1000s profit everyday if i was more greedy and took risks...
The reason the oil fell so much today is for exactly why i said it would, but i said it 3weeks ago though!!
:|Cos no-one can afford it anymore, especially with the economy crisis.
And so the buyers are no finally starting to realise that even though its futures contracts they are buying.., those contracts are still contracts for real physial oil at the end of the day.
And so they can only make any actual cash profit if they can then find someone whos willing to pay even more than they did for that contract to the oil for the future.
But so they all today realised again that no-one can actually afford to buy that oil for that price, and so thats why there was such a giant sell off cos they all realised tey wanted to shift it quick for the current market value.
the dollar/brazil n iran/ weather want even given a 2nd thought anymore,
exactly like how i also said that how i use those things as my '2nd' indicator, but the 1st 1 has to always be pure logic and pyschology.
And i so i proved to everyone again how i was correct when i said that!!
Depth Trade
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89, you might know exactly what's going on, but I dont see how you can take a loss more than $60 max.Its not an impossible market though mate.., for the last 3weeks its been the easiest market ever to trade and make so much money from!
I made every single forecast correct about the oil, every singe day, day after day...
But because the little capital i have is all the money i have in the world, i just am having to take a few hundred max most days, when i could potentially quite easily be getting into the £1000s profit everyday if i was more greedy and took risks...
The reason the oil fell so much today is for exactly why i said it would, but i said it 3weeks ago though!!
Cos no-one can afford it anymore, especially with the economy crisis.
And so the buyers are no finally starting to realise that even though its futures contracts they are buying.., those contracts are still contracts for real physial oil at the end of the day.
And so they can only make any actual cash profit if they can then find someone whos willing to pay even more than they did for that contract to the oil for the future.
But so they all today realised again that no-one can actually afford to buy that oil for that price, and so thats why there was such a giant sell off cos they all realised tey wanted to shift it quick for the current market value.
the dollar/brazil n iran/ weather want even given a 2nd thought anymore,
exactly like how i also said that how i use those things as my '2nd' indicator, but the 1st 1 has to always be pure logic and pyschology.
And i so i proved to everyone again how i was correct when i said that!!
If you take a couple hundred $ lose, seems like you'll be done.
One way to test your self is to; take as minimal from the market a possible, Seriously. It's a real type of test given.
· The Basics of Money Management III
· The Basics of Money Management II
· The Foundations of Money Management I
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spanish89
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Atleast im now really starting to understand the mindset of how traders brains do actually work though, and so this is going to be a great advantage when i pyscho-analyse them and how they will react in the future, so i can make my trades accordingly.
So here is my view and definition of how traders are, you can all completely oppose me if you want and ignore it, but i hope this will help the few who are following my trades and trying to learn to use pyschology as the main indicator when trading.
Traders are all just thick skulled, bullheaded, jumpy, nerdy little snobs and toffs!!
They can n most do have a whole ****** paragraph of degrees and doctorates after their names, but yet this is their biggest curse as it means they have absolutely no skills of pure logic and reasoning, instead to them everything is just numbers and scientific graphing, nothing else.
That is why they all just follow the mob and all do the same, so trends form.
Thye dont actually ever like to look ahead though even when they are trading futures contracts, they only foucus on whats happening that 1day, not on the future.
And they do not listen to anyone else except politicians, as they are all snobs n toofs, or rumours they hear floating around that scare them, as they are very jumpy!!
I saw 3weeks ago that the oil price would fall down to 136 a few times before ever getting upto 150, let alone even trying to stay there yet.., and so i posted that on this forum countless times.
Thye could have easily come on here and read that, some probably did, but cos its me they completely ignored me cos to them im just some 18 year old ctunt with no degrees or any of tht nonsense, and so even though everytime i make a forecast its coming true, they wouldnt ever liste to something anyone like me said.
So they all kept on buying and buying their contracts in the mid to high 40s, even though i was saying they were going to lsoe money as no-one could afford too buy that oil for that price.
(But they are so out of touch with relaity that they dont even think of it as oil. they dont care what the **** it is, to them its all just numbers and scientific charts, and so they just do what the charts say without actually thinking about what they are actually buying and so will ahve to eventually try selling).
But then today Ben Bernanke opens his mouth and says the exact same thing i was saying weeks ago!
But because he is a rich politician they all jump to obey his words, and so all the people who bought millions of quid worth of the oil futures contracts in the mid n high 40s all lots millions n hundreds of millions today!!
So here is my view and definition of how traders are, you can all completely oppose me if you want and ignore it, but i hope this will help the few who are following my trades and trying to learn to use pyschology as the main indicator when trading.
Traders are all just thick skulled, bullheaded, jumpy, nerdy little snobs and toffs!!
They can n most do have a whole ****** paragraph of degrees and doctorates after their names, but yet this is their biggest curse as it means they have absolutely no skills of pure logic and reasoning, instead to them everything is just numbers and scientific graphing, nothing else.
That is why they all just follow the mob and all do the same, so trends form.
Thye dont actually ever like to look ahead though even when they are trading futures contracts, they only foucus on whats happening that 1day, not on the future.
And they do not listen to anyone else except politicians, as they are all snobs n toofs, or rumours they hear floating around that scare them, as they are very jumpy!!
I saw 3weeks ago that the oil price would fall down to 136 a few times before ever getting upto 150, let alone even trying to stay there yet.., and so i posted that on this forum countless times.
Thye could have easily come on here and read that, some probably did, but cos its me they completely ignored me cos to them im just some 18 year old ctunt with no degrees or any of tht nonsense, and so even though everytime i make a forecast its coming true, they wouldnt ever liste to something anyone like me said.
So they all kept on buying and buying their contracts in the mid to high 40s, even though i was saying they were going to lsoe money as no-one could afford too buy that oil for that price.
(But they are so out of touch with relaity that they dont even think of it as oil. they dont care what the **** it is, to them its all just numbers and scientific charts, and so they just do what the charts say without actually thinking about what they are actually buying and so will ahve to eventually try selling).
But then today Ben Bernanke opens his mouth and says the exact same thing i was saying weeks ago!
But because he is a rich politician they all jump to obey his words, and so all the people who bought millions of quid worth of the oil futures contracts in the mid n high 40s all lots millions n hundreds of millions today!!
spanish89
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$60 t a few $100s??? :-0
:|:|You talking about oil price falling $60s against me??? :-0:|
Because when i was speaking about $s i was talking about the price oil was going in my favour, not my cash profits..
Sorry if i misunderstood you.. though
spanish89
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That does does look fun and entertaining.., but how is it actually differnet to just buying and selling oil through an sb??
spanish89
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spanish89
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It fell cos benanke said that USA economy is going down and does look like it will get worse, and so theres alot less demmand for the oil since theres less spare money floating around, so no-one could afford to buy enough to make the sellers happy if it was so expensive, so the price fell sharply. :smart:
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