Smash Days in forex

It has to be said that so far this strategy hasn't produced, for me at least on my choices, a single signal.

All I'm seeing is momentum direction continue the following day, therefore making the signal null and void.

That said i will make my picks at or near todays close.
 
Today my smash trade selection is a buy on GBPUSD

Capture231.PNG


And a buy on USDHKD

Capture232.PNG
 
Lightning McQueen said:
It has to be said that so far this strategy hasn't produced, for me at least on my choices, a single signal.

All I'm seeing is momentum direction continue the following day, therefore making the signal null and void.

That said i will make my picks at or near todays close.
Click to expand...
That is correct and it's actually reassuring. The strategy has a low frequency of signals, with a high probability of success.
 
..and is why Tomo has wisely sat on his hands.

A V shaped recovery would certainly help normalise things.

on a personal note I need that V as my pension cash lump is currently taking a battering!!

Capture236.PNG
 
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Knowing what is "normal" is important. It's important to know when to turn the PC off and go hiking instead of trading.

In normal times all three of the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P are above their 50EMA's and their 20EMA's are above their 50's.

On an individual forex market etc. it is such as when swing legs are bullish when price is above the 50EMA, or bearish when it is below. Or such as when multiple D1 charts show outside days and outside key reversals.

It's a never-ending puzzle isn't it.
 
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It's possible that forex volatility is going to decrease significantly in the next few days and we will see the welcome sight of some more forex Smash Day set-ups.

I still intend to ignore any such signals which print at the close today (Thursday) and tomorrow. I would rather be flat across the weekend - when Presidents are working and having meetings and making decisions at the weekend, times are not normal.
 
Yeah definitely some market wisdom from you there tomorton. Unfortunately I tried to trade these markets, and didn't go too well 🙂
 
Smash Day set-ups thin on the ground this week so far, and none seem to have triggered.

This morning I have a buy order set at the high of USD/JPY, which printed a set-up yesterday, 16/04. This would be a very counter-trend position if the order triggers today so there are some optional responses available -
1. smaller position size
2. tighter stop-loss
3. shorter waiting time for the exit at profitable close, say 3 days instead of 5
 
Yesterday's session has generated 6 Smash Day set-ups, all featuring NZD weakness - I personally avoid Australasian pairs due to high spreads (except for their one major, AUD/USD). Some would be with-trend entries. NZD pairs are mostly low historic volatility but NZD/JPY and NZD/USD are very high.

EUR/NZD, long, with-trend
GBP/NZD, long
NZD/CAD, short
NZD/CHF, short, with-trend
NZD/JPY, short, with-trend, volatility high
NZD/USD, short, counter-trend, volatility high

No actions for me today.
 
By the way, all the NZD set-ups printed Inside Days yesterday, which is perhaps to be expected on a Good Friday, so no orders should have been triggered anyway.

Next review of charts will be Tuesday night.

Happy Easter.
 
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