Smash Days in forex

[Lightning McQueen]

It has to be said that so far this strategy hasn't produced, for me at least on my choices, a single signal.

All I'm seeing is momentum direction continue the following day, therefore making the signal null and void.

That said i will make my picks at or near todays close.

 

[Lightning McQueen]

Today my smash trade selection is a buy on GBPUSD

And a buy on USDHKD

 

[tomorton]

It has to be said that so far this strategy hasn't produced, for me at least on my choices, a single signal.

All I'm seeing is momentum direction continue the following day, therefore making the signal null and void.

That said i will make my picks at or near todays close.

That is correct and it's actually reassuring. The strategy has a low frequency of signals, with a high probability of success.

 

[RolloTape2025]

What are the backtest results on this?

 

[tomorton]

What are the backtest results on this?

You can see more statistics on this than I could ever produce, plus some variations on the set-up and trade management rules here -

 

[Lightning McQueen]

GBPUSD and USDHKD didn't trigger therefore orders are cancelled.

No new signals today.

 

[Lightning McQueen]

Smash day buy USDHKD

 

[tomorton]

Smash day buy USDHKD

View attachment 341084

It's a beautiful set-up. I'm not sure I have the determination to set the entry order.......

 

[Lightning McQueen]

It's a beautiful set-up. I'm not sure I have the determination to set the entry order.......

It has disaster written all over it.

Steamed in without looking on a lower timeframe first! we shall see 🤔

 

[RolloTape2025]

I think sometimes it is ok to realise there is massive (Trump) manipulation going on right now, and maybe the setups aren't great.

But might still work

 

[Lightning McQueen]

..and is why Tomo has wisely sat on his hands.

A V shaped recovery would certainly help normalise things.

on a personal note I need that V as my pension cash lump is currently taking a battering!!

 

[tomorton]

Knowing what is "normal" is important. It's important to know when to turn the PC off and go hiking instead of trading.

In normal times all three of the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P are above their 50EMA's and their 20EMA's are above their 50's.

On an individual forex market etc. it is such as when swing legs are bullish when price is above the 50EMA, or bearish when it is below. Or such as when multiple D1 charts show outside days and outside key reversals.

It's a never-ending puzzle isn't it.

 

[tomorton]

It's possible that forex volatility is going to decrease significantly in the next few days and we will see the welcome sight of some more forex Smash Day set-ups.

I still intend to ignore any such signals which print at the close today (Thursday) and tomorrow. I would rather be flat across the weekend - when Presidents are working and having meetings and making decisions at the weekend, times are not normal.

 

[RolloTape2025]

Yeah definitely some market wisdom from you there tomorton. Unfortunately I tried to trade these markets, and didn't go too well 🙂

 

[Lightning McQueen]

USDHKD order cancelled.

Todays smash day buy is USDCAD