Skill vs. luck in Forex trading

[darktone]

Its all to do with luck.

Was luck that I stuck around long enough to realise that i dont know sh!t.
Good fortune to eventually realise that I dont need to know sh!t.
Sheer luck that I had a friend wake me up to the importance of psych. (that was fortunate actually :cheesy
Complete fluke that I faded that 5min chart... Inline with the h4... And actually made some money.

Thank f**k for luck!

 

[12WBT]

Its all to do with luck.

Was luck that I stuck around long enough to realise that i dont know sh!t.
Good fortune to eventually realise that I dont need to know sh!t.
Sheer luck that I had a friend wake me up to the importance of psych. (that was fortunate actually :cheesy
Complete fluke that I faded that 5min chart... Inline with the h4... And actually made some money.

Thank f**k for luck!

Come on mate.
There must be some skills hidden under that psych.

 

[darktone]

Come on mate.
There must be some skills hidden under that psych.

I dunno mate, what skills do we really need?

Physical:-
1) be able to turn on puter and login to platform.
2) be able to press button on keyboard so as to enter an order.

Method:-
1) be able to define an opportunity.
2) be able to act on that opportunity.

Psychological:-
1) being able to understand what drives my emotions.
2) being able to identify what drives my emotions.
3) be able to use tools that deal with my thoughts that threaten action in physical and method.
>>>>>
573) understanding that most participants are victims of their thoughts / beliefs and emotions.
and on and on and on

Whats the the one skill set that gets neglected by nearly all participants?


Ps:- The luck comment, i was as they say. Takin zee p!ss. But luck does play a part imo. Like when you take your amazing self to the market, and it knocks you out the ground with an unprecedented situation/s. Not batting a f**king eyelid.
Bad luck old chap!

Or when your take your incredibly unprepared stupid feckwit of a self, who knows even less than nothing to the market, land long at the beginning of a bull market.


But who knows, not me.

 

[Atilla]

I dunno mate, what skills do we really need?

Physical:-
1) be able to turn on puter and login to platform.
2) be able to press button on keyboard so as to enter an order.

Method:-
1) be able to define an opportunity.
2) be able to act on that opportunity.

Psychological:-
1) being able to understand what drives my emotions.
2) being able to identify what drives my emotions.
3) be able to use tools that deal with my thoughts that threaten action in physical and method.
>>>>>
573) understanding that most participants are victims of their thoughts / beliefs and emotions.
and on and on and on

Whats the the one skill set that gets neglected by nearly all participants?


Ps:- The luck comment, i was as they say. Takin zee p!ss. But luck does play a part imo. Like when you take your amazing self to the market, and it knocks you out the ground with an unprecedented situation/s. Not batting a f**king eyelid.
Bad luck old chap!

Or when your take your incredibly unprepared stupid feckwit of a self, who knows even less than nothing to the market, land long at the beginning of a bull market.


But who knows, not me.

There is a lot of personal luggage here

 

[Atilla]

This would be so much better, don't you think?

 

[darktone]

This would be so much better, don't you think?

Well you can only drop the luggage if you realise youre carrying it no? So in a sense, that pic represents me
Most folks be hauling a sack full of crocodiles, yet be blissfully unaware. To busy trying to find the most skillful way to hit boots on floor!

 

[louistrader]

The skill is all stuff that is unrelated to the market. The skill is in mastering yourself by proper risk management, position size, etc.

 

[kwickwool]

Statistically luck can only take you so far and the law of averages state over and above a certain number of trades that the luck will even itself out and it will be the skill of the trader that ultimately is what makes you profitable.

And finally, flip a coin on your trading decisions and u will be right 50% of the time(not quite right but u know what I mean) and all you are looking to do however u trade is increase the probability of being right in your favour, however u do that either with news, technical analysis etc etc

And then it does get to a number of trades where luck no longer is statistically valid and it is down to your trading........

 

[Vinayak1000]

It's definitely skill that is needed for forex trading success. The skill inevitably creates the luck. There is a lot to learn in forex trading from the fundamentals to the technicals. After all, forex trading is risky and it is much more likely to lose a lot of money due to insufficient knowledge than to make good profits.
I had to do a lot of demo trading before I started live forex trading. And still I am not that comfortable as the markets are tricky and can move in any direction. Its always best to follow the market rather than be contrarian.

 

[IzaIza]

"The skill inevitably creates the luck."

Wow. I have to say you are spot on Vinayak1000. No sarcasm intended.

 

[verbum4it]

A forex trader should have some basic knowledge and skill in his trading activity, do not think about lucky factor in trading forex. Trading forex is a rational activity.

 

[iMusingKiMi]

Do you get lucky or does lucky get you?

1. Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you react to it
2. 80% of what happens to you can be attributed to 20% of your behaviour

I like this

 

[kwickwool]

Ultimately it is all about statistics and probabilities and finding areas of higher probability of determining price action as apposed to flipping a coin. Doing this using whatever means you can however you can, and statistically over time that breaks down to skill and not luck, the numbers dictate that.

Take newtons law as in if you kick a ball it moves, if you don't kick it, it does not move. The same is for price movement, it moves for a reason at a certain time quite often with a certain pattern, and simply put that is what this is all about.

But how you go about all that is how skilful you are as a trader, and there are no excuses for failure apart from you were not skilled enough in your understanding of every dynamic and perspective you need to be profitable and you will get chewed up and spat out if not.

As said before by myself but cannot take credit for the statement, "it is the hardest way to make the easiest of living……."

The game of the gods, you against the markets, and thats why we all love it!

kwickwool

 

[Splitlink]

A famous trader mentioned that he found that the more he concentrated in getting better at trading, the luckier he got.

But, isn't that the same with all forms of business.? One is in the right place at the right time. Some corner shops become gold mines, others fail or, at best, struggle along.

 

[Joseph99]

I think luck depends on your skills. If you have skills and work hard then luck will automatically favor you.

 

[Nowler]

It's both.

You need to have the skill to put yourself in lucks path

 

[Pat494]

So many newbies land in this trap of having a big win at the start of their careers which was due to beginner's luck rather than skill. Then under the delusion of being an ace trader they lose the lot.
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOPS !

 

[Nowler]

So many newbies land in this trap of having a big win at the start of their careers which was due to beginner's luck rather than skill. Then under the delusion of being an ace trader they lose the lot.
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOPS !

I'm guilty of that.
Fortunately I only lost 68%...
Unfortunately... I lost 68%

I made 20% one week, 20% the next, 11% the following... and then lost it all plus the 68% in the weeks that came after

 

[Delilah_10]

It's both.

You need to have the skill to put yourself in lucks path

Well said. Even luck doesn't favor those who don't work for it using their skills.

 

[Pat494]

Luck tends to be short lived and soon runs out.
Skill will keep profitable even in difficult times.