Are you trading a slot machine with payout rules?

the hare said:
I dont deny that happens. His pitch however is that there is deliberate manipulation that effects indicators. I know that that this sort of manipluation strategy is taught as part of quantatative finance courses at least within 2 UK universities, and is possibly even more widespread.

However, there's a few problems, the lagging nature of indicators for a start means that any any price action manipulation needs to be of a longer term nature before it even shows up on the radar. Lets be honest, by the time the dunces at the back of the class has worked out a short term move is underway, its generally over. If there's longer term manipulation, then its generally of a magnitude great enough to benefit from.

Its the comments about 90% of positions immedately move against you when taking a TA based signal. I've never heard anything quite so ridiculous, how long do you think such a massive edge would sit there undiscovered ?
Click to expand...

yes i agree the 90% thing is a bit... well b))))cks.

but the thing about indicators and painting the chart has some merit to it, i can't find the interview with the trader from Knight from Google but it does happen.

But, the trader from Knight is talking about stocks which is a different thing to forex. It doesn't make sense for me that this could happen in forex to the retail trader.
 
the hare said:
Time to end this feckin nonsense.

If what this vendor says is true, then simply fading TA patterns would work. It does not work.

There are some very stupid dunces posting at the zoo, but even creatures of this limited intelligence would soon work out that doing the opposite of what they are being conned into doing by an indicator might just be profitable.

I'm not sure where exactly the 90% of positions immediately go against you nonsense comes from. I'm sat here looking at MFE and MAE data obtained from RANDOM entries pratically pissing myself laughing.

My method employs a directional bias (based on TA), and as part of my ongoing monitoring I also trade the inverse of that bias (on a small live account). If my bias wasnt working, the inverse would result in an increase in win rate and profits from the inverse trades. Trading the inverse signal has lost me **** loads of money for the last 8 years !

T2W really is a marketers paradise,
Click to expand...

There's no flies on you eh son? ;)
 
Martin Cole said:
Hi
I cannot post charts as I don't use standard charting software. I use bespoke software that I developed over 15 years and to be honest this software would make no sense to anyone unless they were trained to use it. Again I do not want to get into the promotion of anything here so best we just keep the software out of it. :)

When I say standard indicators I am referring to anything from a simple moving average upwards to every standard indicator that you will find in off the shelf charting software. Remember that anyone will show you yesterdays chart and tell you how you could have or would have.

Try to come at this from a different angle.......IF you were a market maker looking to accumulate buys, you would need the outside market to SELL to you. IF you were a Market Maker, how would you do this?
The ONLY way you could do this is to convince the masses that it would be in their own interest to SELL to you, once the masses start selling to you, then you as a MM start buying for the ALREADY known about underlying demand in the market place.

Remember.... the 'news' that so many place value on, is generated BY the MM and fed to the media. If you are a journalist you don't go to a don nut factory to find out about the demand for the USD against the GBP.You go the City and here the city feed the media the news they want to be released.

Try asking uncomfortable questions, questions that if you are truthful you already know at least part of the answer to.

Everyone wants you to trade with them. Every broker is the best broker, every broker has the best spreads, every broker gives you free charts with a 100's of indicators, every broker is giving you free trading lessons.
Then you have the army of promoters of brokers who then get a commission on every trade you place, saying these are prolific is an understatement.
The other day I was offered a deal where I could get commission on the money a trader LOST in the market. (this was a broker that was actually trading AGAINST its clients)

To succeed as a trader in the long haul (I am meaning 10 years not 10 trades) you (in my opinion) need to view the market from the inside out, not the outside in. You have to throw away the façade and delve into the dirty workings of manipulation.

Belief is where the answer lies, belief is the underlying single element at the back of EVERY one of your trades, every one of your trading decisions. If you doubt this then try buying something when you believe the price is going to fall.

First you need to understand how a belief is born, goes through its life cycle and then dies. (this can be any belief about any topic, and some beliefs you will take to the grave)
Then you need to apply this same birth death cycle to the market. THEN you add in how beliefs can be manipulated to produce desired results.

Were there Weapons of Mass Destruction or not? The fact of the matter is inconsequential, the only thing that matters is whether enough people are convinced there were.

I have met traders who are in their 10th year STILL looking for and still tweaking every known indicator known to man and then some. This normally takes place at the end of the week when they scan back through the chart with the burning thought......if only!

Why would they do this after 10 years? BELIEF that they will find the secret key.

There is no secret, there is no magic formula, there is no robot that deposits money into your trading account.

The only ONE constant is the BELIEF that you MUST develop within yourself before you commit to pushing the buy or sell button.
Click to expand...

I play the slot machines, but i wait for the old grannys to lose their money first. Usually after that my payout is slightly better than 100%.

You haven't self promoted yourself, but now i'm looking at your website. good job Martin!
 
Last edited:
brettus said:
I play the slot machines, but i wait for the old grannys to lose their money first. Usually after that my payout is slightly better than 100%.
Click to expand...

Why is that (not that I am about to start)? Obviously, you believe that a granny is unlikely to win and you are. But, what is the scientific reason for it?
 
Splitlink said:
Why is that (not that I am about to start)? Obviously, you believe that a granny is unlikely to win and you are. But, what is the scientific reason for it?
Click to expand...

Well if she loses 500$, then theres a better chance i'll get paid out. Slot machines know how much money they have in them and when to pay out. If you have ever played a slot machine that has just been cleaned out, you would know.

I'm just messing about, but ive seen a few push you out of the way to get on the machine. I laid that b***h out though and the word got around. I have no troubles anymore.
 
brettus said:
Well if she loses 500$, then theres a better chance i'll get paid out. Slot machines know how much money they have in them and when to pay out. If you have ever played a slot machine that has just been cleaned out, you would know.

I'm just messing about, but ive seen a few push you out of the way to get on the machine. I laid that b***h out though and the word got around. I have no troubles anymore.
Click to expand...

I've seen it in a film, very impressive. :D
 
brettus said:
Well if she loses 500$, then theres a better chance i'll get paid out. Slot machines know how much money they have in them and when to pay out. If you have ever played a slot machine that has just been cleaned out, you would know.

I'm just messing about, but ive seen a few push you out of the way to get on the machine. I laid that b***h out though and the word got around. I have no troubles anymore.
Click to expand...

I've seen it in a film, very impressive, but it always seemed to be the old lady that got the kitty. :D
 
meanreversion said:
I can't be arsed to read all of this. Is the conclusion that Market Makers are omnipresent and evil?
Click to expand...

I think he's gone, we are on about grannies right now. I can't see him interupting us at this point. :)

I've had a good morning, BTW, so I'm in a happy mood.
 
scose-no-doubt said:
tldr. spam/scam/nonsense.
Click to expand...

Yes it is/was...but it's that particular flavour of sophist spam that grates...That's why it's essential that it's given an immediate beasting, so when it does appear in a high ranking Google search (his reason for spamming) folk can view other opinions.
 
Nah .... I think he means they manipulate sentiment & that this whole industry is built upon tricking the 95% to part with their cash ... not sure his software would help much with that though!

meanreversion said:
I can't be arsed to read all of this. Is the conclusion that Market Makers are omnipresent and evil?
Click to expand...
 
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