Effectiveness does not speak for itself at all. Rather than portraying this as a highly profitable system why not discuss its downsides, discuss losing trades with this method, rather than highlighting how you "could have"
Its not your strategy, so you should be able to be impartial. Thats friendly polite advice
I was asking questions on another thread which also was showing how lovely trades are in hindsight, so why not change this thread and discuss whether this system is really any good at all. I've been pointing out discrepancies, you've been overlooking them
so again, not your system, so need to be so defensive
I could just as easily post up winning trades from a moving average cross over system, but that doesn't mean its any good. And moving averages have been around since the beginning of time, does that mean their effectiveness speaks for itself..think not
Thanks for your post, its a much constructive one
Yes we do have losses as in any system:
About entries, you take the break of the box of a sleeping alligator (after watching 4 times higher TF for direction) or the second break after the first break of a sleeping alligator. Fractal box must be tight (1st entry), green line must be close (2nd entry) as this is where your initial SL will be. 2nd or 3 break entries depend of how close AO is from the ZL;
For exit: You have to consider:
Fast move: Exit would be candle trailing or break of box in opposite direction. Choice would depend also of how look the chart 4X TF;
You may also lock some profit.
Normal move: close of green line if divergence between AO and price, red line if no divergence or break of box in opposite direction. Choice would dependof how look the chart 4X TF;
Other thing to consider if you trade H1 and lower TF: Red news. You may bring your SL to BE or self half or more of your position.
BRN number, you may take some profit
For wave 5, you may also use fibonacci numbers.
If entries are mechanical, exits are much more subjective
Another key point is Money Management:
Bill Williams MM is as follows:
Everytime you have a sleeping alligator, its a balance point, so this is a gambling mode and he will not risk a full 1% (suppose you risk 1% of your capital per trade); Exit would be other side of the box
The second break of the box, he will invest more (this is the investing mode), you suppose to be in profit already), the 3rd entry if any, he will invest also but less than the second one (this is a very quick sumup of his MM strategy).
Its always the same story, you cut the losers fast and you let the winners run as long as there is no exit signal so even with a 50% win/loss ration, you are in profit as your winners will largely cover your losers.
Yes this is not the single profitable strategy (even if this one is very profitable), they are many, the problem is that people do not respect the rules of their strategy due to emotional state.
What i like about this strategy is the psychologic approach of trading (this is not fundamuntal nor technical school); here is a BW interesting workshop:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tTq12QoaMA
hope you enjoy
cheers
