Thoughts on trading after 3 years

What's your view on GBPUSD ahead of the Fed July meeting? Is it makes sense to long this pair ahead of possible big rate cut by the Fed? Or its purely driven by Brexit concerns currently?
ok so the Fed is (probably) going to lower by x basis points which which is supposed to lift the dollar, and Brexit is not over yet. who knows?

It is my view that fundamental analysis is at the end of the day "an educated guess", and therefor i am focusing on an intraday strategy for quick in and out targets.
 
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Ok fellow traders, i seem to have some attention, i felt the heat from my inbox.

Firstly fibo_trader, thanks for your prompt response and getting us over the start line. "<<<<<< = more super heated steam out the ass? :):):):) "

It is evident that the content of my writing P!ssed you off somewhat evidenced by your subsequent follow up posts.
i apologize for hitting a nerve now chill and let me try and explain.

You have taken time to pick out excerpts from my posts and comment...., i am truly flattered.:)

Now i am in no way intending to disrespect/rewrite the book/re-invent the wheel in trading.
i am simply going to prove a point, that has evolved and been indelibly imprinted on my psyche as i have progressed through the forex maze.

Trend lines, Channels, Triangles, Multi Time frame Analysis....... all require history/past behavior to equate "Technical Analysis"

earlier i was referring to the "reaction of a certain candle on a lower time frame chart at some point in time gone, and what to expect next."strategy.. there are millions out there!

Therefor i apologize for falling over my face earlier as Intraday vs Swing Trading is actually what is meant to discuss.

When i referred to moving average crossovers, they indeed work very well in trending markets, as do other strategies but fall short dismally in ranging markets.

Take say a 1 hour chart and apply a cross combination of any choice on it, backtest it and you will certainly here the squeek.

I started with Swing Trading"Letting Profits Run" and got to Intraday trading which i believed, initially was a waste of time.

Now i have found the latter very...(calm down :))...profitable and not to mention, mentally stimulating.

i AM making Money almost on a Daily basis, and when i have shared this info, as i have mentioned above, to have a collective push at the right time, the objective is achieved as it indeed already is, as Big Money is Traded Intraday. (+-$5.1 Trillion)

(i do not intend to try to shift the poles:))

Not to mention "putting back" or contributing in a small way for all the resources made freely available out there from all the benevolent contributors during my forex journey, for others to benefit....,heck i am going to be alright when i retire.

Let's start then........................

1) Ok, so Fundamental Analysis 1 July 2019 "Pound Plummets against the Dollar"(Brexit)
This is evident on the 4hour Chart indeed and swing traders would catch the ride.

2) There are counter trends on the lower time frame(30 min) 10 july 2019(see insert)

This is my point... i made 1000+, yes a 1000+pips in Feb 2019 whereas swing trading would have netted 300 with lower gearing because of the initial stop loss, risk management employment

The average stop loss in the intraday trading during this period was -15 pips, not to mention the increased gearing as the account advanced/grew.

Yes it is not always right...., but what is??
That is exactly why in trading that one would wisely risk between 2 and 10% per trade.


The main objective of this exercise in fact, is to hopefully help the users of this fine platform(it is after all a forum), to create a think tank/collective resource to improve the strategy.

Any One Else?, have a GR8 Day


hey D

ok i am catching up on the thread ..........firstly welcome to day trading ........I get you dude

I am much more profitable (per trade) on the dailies ..........but thats like watching paint dry..... and doesnt offer me the trading volume of lower timeframes ....i get loads more signals and whilst the returns are lower per trade % wise - I am leveraging my capital a lot more ...im also keeping less capital with brokers that is really important to me these days

so good luck to you .......happy to share ideas .....my approach is on my thread .....2.4 million views to date and as plain as day ............its not rocket science ...i monitor the direction and power of the G8 currencies for the period/session concerned (Asian , london, US , daily , weekly , monthly) and go with the flow on the alpha currency pairs ......

its so simple its daft ....but every day i talk to a lot of traders who are blindfolded on trading "favourite pairs" and other strategies that limit their earnings....i will suggest currencies/pairs that are moving and they say "nah - I really cant trade that pair ......dont like it .........i like my pair because .........blah blah"............so they stay entrenched trading a pair that has just a 27/1 chance of being the best pair to trade at any 1 time .......and THAT is why only a small % make the grade in Trading

so keep thinking outside the box .......its the only place to be dude

anyway enough ......this is not my thread

cheers
N
 
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hey D

ok i am catching up on the thread ..........firstly welcome to day trading ........I get you dude

I am much more profitable (per trade) on the dailies ..........but thats like watching paint dry..... and doesnt offer me the trading volume of lower timeframes ....i get loads more signals and whilst the returns are lower per trade % wise - I am leveraging my capital a lot more ...im also keeping less capital with brokers that is really important to me these days

so good luck to you .......happy to share ideas .....my approach is on my thread .....2.4 million views to date and as plain as day ............

N
Hey N

Thanks Man, i am rushing over there now, sorry where will i find it [embarrassed]
 
let me give you an example ...this morning around 8:15 the GBP index currency got really bullish in the london open session and became the alpha bull on the G8 ......it then proceeded to go up some 40 pips (eventually) on its own .....not as a pair .......you add the other currencies movement to this figure to see what the gbp pairs really did this morning

so that was the lead trade stategy for me this morning

BUY GBP in pairs ...........

thats 7 pairs to focus on instead of 28 ............a good start..then i start getting a little more involved on exact pair selection and timing .....but thats another story

N
 
hey dunno .....can you elaborate just a little more on the M5 signal strategy ....im looking to see where you decide the exact re-entry point .......

the trigger is of course the absolute key to all of this ...the rest is pretty straight forward in establishing a trend / bias for the trace direction

N
 
for example i just re-scalped Cable around the 2485 level...(as i said i am chasing gbp rebuys all morning) .....i know what i look for and will be interesting to see what your system is offering

N
 

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Ok, this is as far back as i can go on record, these represent intraday Tech Analysis an hour before the EU Open and two hours before the US open respectively , if the pivot is broken the scenario is invalidated and the alternative kicks in, so the pivot is the stop loss(my strategy is leaving a little space behind the Pivot for "overshoot", if the Pivot is far from the current price ie compromising risk reward i set a limit order and wait for a possible pullback to where i am prepared to "do business" . The second target is the take profit and if the trend progresses past the US opening, the TP advances to 2nd target again, Each trade incorporating strict money management

If there is no pullback i just straddle the pivot as it advances

PS: i have the records Feb5 to current, courtesy of Trading Central in my inbox.
 

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hey dunno .....can you elaborate just a little more on the M5 signal strategy ....im looking to see where you decide the exact re-entry point .......

the trigger is of course the absolute key to all of this ...the rest is pretty straight forward in establishing a trend / bias for the trace direction

N
Sorry N we are overtaking each other here, please shift to the Analysis post with the attached charts, thanks
 
Ok, this is as far back as i can go on record, these represent intraday Tech Analysis an hour before the EU Open and two hours before the US open respectively , if the pivot is broken the scenario is invalidated and the alternative kicks in, so the pivot is the stop loss(my strategy is leaving a little space behind the Pivot for "overshoot", if the Pivot is far from the current price ie compromising risk reward i set a limit order and wait for a possible pullback to where i am prepared to "do business" . The second target is the take profit and if the trend progresses past the US opening, the TP advances to 2nd target again, Each trade incorporating strict money management

If there is no pullback i just straddle the pivot as it advances

PS: i have the records Feb5 to current, courtesy of Trading Central in my inbox.


ok so you draw a line in the sand with trend and a pivot / price level that determines if the signal is invalid ..........then if the direction holds you enter with a stop behind the pivot ? ........and target wise ? .........ATR driven ?

N
 
i kind of do this as well based on actual currency index proce levels (not pairs).........i am looking for what currency indexes are doing in previous sessions ...........then trying to get into the extended trends into new sessions unfolding

if the Currency reverses then im screwed .....but thats trading ....

N
 
sounds a solid approach .....deveils in the detail of course and the execution and consistency will determine yuor profitability ...which you say is pretty ok ....

so fair play to you dude.....great work

N
 
Thanks N
i will post say ten days of levels, and u can see what i am all bouncy about, it is not me Buddy, rather Trading Central, i just added my rules as to entry really, and i do not know who of the Brokers punt Trading Central.

In order to have their info available, FXpro subscribes to Trading Central services and in return make the information available to their account holders.

They have been going forever and Big Gun's follow their lead on tried and tested analysis.(just behold how the levels are respected!!!)

Furthermore, there is a plugin indicator available to download and run on the chart real time and the levels adjust or roll when there is momentum, so an entry or rolling pivot can be tracked for entry.

The Historic info i have is mailed to me but only gives pre EU and US levels, in between {every hour or so} the chart levels are reviewed, and as i say updated real time.

i will post the history in the AM, gotta shoot out for a while
 

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Oh the screenshot is not in back tester as depicted it should look like this
 

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