sick of 'gurus': new trader asking advice from normal traders?

[DionysusToast]

Gambling will not give any returns over a long period. The best system will be to aim for smaller profits based on the knowledge.

This would be much more sustainable

He might not be gambling. I presume his comments are tongue-in-cheek or self-deprecating because of the results.

 

[Sidekicker]

He might not be gambling. I presume his comments are tongue-in-cheek or self-deprecating because of the results.

I'll tell you what I do find interesting...
there is so very little information on DOM trading around on the net or in books especiaslly when compared to candlesticks, indicators, put/call, volume, market profile, etc.
I think this is more a function that it's difficult to explain rather than no-one knows how to do it or that it's too technical for the average retail investor.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

If you get the urge to buy the middle of a range

I get the strongest urge at the end of a move often at the point of turning. But it hasn't been fatal so far and my stops and other trades saved the day. It's a case of keep banging my head against the wall until I get tired of it. Not there yet, but I think I am close.

Also, certain move patterns have simultaneous bullish and bearish interpretations. When I bite on to one interpretation, I become blind to the alternative interpretation until too late. It's a bit like one of those visual brain teasers that changes what you see over time when in actual fact the image isn't changing. It's a natural brain deficiency one has to guard against. I got caught time and again with part of me knowing exactly which way the price is going, yet the other part of me putting in trades for the opposite direction.

 

[new_trader]

When I bite on to one interpretation, I become blind to the alternative interpretation until too late. It's a bit like one of those visual brain teasers that changes what you see over time when in actual fact the image isn't changing. It's a natural brain deficiency one has to guard against. I got caught time and again with part of me knowing exactly which way the price is going, yet the other part of me putting in trades for the opposite direction.

Very good Joe, excellent post and 100% correct. A trader must guard against bias and I have often thought of the analogy you used. It is much like flashing lights in a circle where it looks as if it is moving clockwise and you need to concentrate to make it appear to move anti-clockwise.

 

[forker]

It wasnt a hedge, they had to say that.

And you know this because you obviously work in the team right

 

[forker]

Do you think the traders at these firms have access to a massive pot of cash from which they all can trade. Let's say for sh!ts and giggles that.a single trader entered a few extra digits than he should have,how long do you think it takes to execute a position or positions so large that the losses amounts to 2 billion?

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Do you think the traders at these firms have access to a massive pot of cash from which they all can trade. Let's say for sh!ts and giggles that.a single trader entered a few extra digits than he should have,how long do you think it takes to execute a position or positions so large that the losses amounts to 2 billion?

A few extra 0's in EUR/USD trading could lose the 2 billion in no time if it happens to get spiked in the wrong direction and then they decide to wait for it to come back and it doesn't. But the typing error scenario is just an example. If it really did happen, do you imagine they would come out and say: oh we lost 2 billions from a typing error ?

What I think more likely is that the 2 billion is the total loss of the bank from all it's operations. Normally they would pin such a loss on a "rogue trader" who's basically a dumb stooge being set up. But the rogue trader theme is getting a bit old, so they try something different such as: this loss is so complex that you won't understand, and no use explaining it too you.

 

[Atilla]

A few extra 0's in EUR/USD trading could lose the 2 billion in no time if it happens to get spiked in the wrong direction and then they decide to wait for it to come back and it doesn't. But the typing error scenario is just an example. If it really did happen, do you imagine they would come out and say: oh we lost 2 billions from a typing error ?

What I think more likely is that the 2 billion is the total loss of the bank from all it's operations. Normally they would pin such a loss on a "rogue trader" who's basically a dumb stooge being set up. But the rogue trader theme is getting a bit old, so they try something different such as: this loss is so complex that you won't understand, and no use explaining it too you.

Without fraud taking place it is very difficult for a trader to make this kind of mistake. There are so many controls and checks in place that I find this difficult to believe.

1. Traders always monitor their positions and if such an erroneous trade took place it can always be modified with the exchange by the Middle or Back Office.

2. Risk and exposure to markets are always monitored and often hedged against.

3. Daily P&L statements are reported.

4. There are separation of duties that need to be adhered to.

5. Traders have soft and hard limits on size and positions they can take.


If it does happen it would be difficult to imagine any auditory or regulatory body allowing the institution/organisation where it has taken place to continue with such shoddy processes. That's of-course all theory - not necessarily practice as these organisations are allowed to carry on. Mustn't make waves...

 

[DionysusToast]

I'll tell you what I do find interesting...
there is so very little information on DOM trading around on the net or in books especiaslly when compared to candlesticks, indicators, put/call, volume, market profile, etc.
I think this is more a function that it's difficult to explain rather than no-one knows how to do it or that it's too technical for the average retail investor.

Agreed.

I think it's partly to do with the fact the DOM is moving and it's much easier to show someone sitting next to you than to try to type out what it does.

It's a bit like explaining to someone how to drive...

 

[DionysusToast]

I get the strongest urge at the end of a move often at the point of turning. But it hasn't been fatal so far and my stops and other trades saved the day. It's a case of keep banging my head against the wall until I get tired of it. Not there yet, but I think I am close.

The end of a move often appears to be very stong. Buyers jump on board, price and volume spike up, it looks like it nothing can stop it then.....

Also, certain move patterns have simultaneous bullish and bearish interpretations. When I bite on to one interpretation, I become blind to the alternative interpretation until too late. It's a bit like one of those visual brain teasers that changes what you see over time when in actual fact the image isn't changing. It's a natural brain deficiency one has to guard against. I got caught time and again with part of me knowing exactly which way the price is going, yet the other part of me putting in trades for the opposite direction.

This is right - for every buyer there is a seller. There's stops above and below. I think it's tough at any moment to be open to a long and a short. I prefer to have one in mind and then either take it or not. That might be because I am a fairly short term trader though.

 

[robster970]

I remember seeing the Dunning Kruger thing in robster's
signature but never clicked through, thanks man

It is one and the same metacognitive problem. It's why everybody rates themselves as a 'better than average driver'. It applies to everything we know and do.

@Balthazar - if you are enjoying trading directly off DOM in John Grady style and want to extend that somewhat then take a look at FuturesTrader71 or FT71 on twitter and his website. Auction market theory in action, volume related with market profile. It assumes you can understand T&S and DOM IMO.

Good luck with your journey. You find your own way in this game and whatever works for you, works.

 

[Sidekicker]

Do you think the traders at these firms have access to a massive pot of cash from which they all can trade. Let's say for sh!ts and giggles that.a single trader entered a few extra digits than he should have,how long do you think it takes to execute a position or positions so large that the losses amounts to 2 billion?

This cannot happen unless they are bypassing the risk software/models that monitor all trades...it would be picked up immediately so anytime you hear of fat finger trades, etc. it's mostly just news dramatisation...

 

[Liquid validity]

Someone on this thread sure is going to be brought back down to earth with a huge bump before very long.

That applies to:
everyone on this thread,
everyone on this site,
everyone who trades.

"Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego.
Always question yourself and your ability.
Don't ever feel that you are very good.
The second you do, you are dead" - Paul Tudor Jones quote.

 

[rsh01]

And you know this because you obviously work in the team right

I guess you and the prev poster don't read much (along with the majority of t2w posters), here let me help you:

JPMorgan Said to Transform Treasury to Prop Trading- Bloomberg

The "World's Largest Prop Trading Desk" Just Went Bust | ZeroHedge

The info here, most of it are comments from previous JPM senior execs, also helps to answer your later v naïve post.

 

[Joules MM1]

Your expectation generally isn't that "now is the time but I'm going to put in a bid 4 ticks lower". I lost count of how many times on the ES, I've hit the offer with a limit order (to buy) and the fking thing ticks up before i get filled. It happened at least 2 times on Friday. When this happens, it just doesn't give you a second chance at that price. It's simply down to how much buyer liquidity is behind you on a long trade.

should this actually read how much buy side liquidity is pending and unseen until executed discretionary orders ahead of you, inc (if you like) front running for supply once the current bid/asks moves within fractions of that level.....the level might be common-garden sup, fib pivot level....again depending on the time of the day?

for myself i very rarely use a limit buy when long side whereas i'll place limit sells when long side during specific periods of activity usually if i want to get the best scale at the end of the move......for example, buy to open 4, set sell to close 1+1+1 with 1 discretionary incase the level i'm looking for is overshot and i can nail that level at a better-than exit

also, as a posting by-the-by, i notice in your opines, you change your reference of your pov from "I" to the universal "you" pov.....and you also put a great deal of thought and energy into being educational (hence the use of the universal "you") and that's a curious thing considering how much you put down the amount of bs available.....again i think if you stick with your pov and drop the universal "you" pov then your message will be that more effective .....when i'm speaking from my own perspective i find i get best feedback by using "i"........take that as a good thing.........

i think if you were to go back and collate a lot of your posts they would make effective reading for many newbies even some wannabe pros.......and there's very few people who've ever posted on T2W that (err) "you" could say that about :cheesy:

 

[barjon]

............... It happened at least 2 times on Friday. When this happens, it just doesn't give you a second chance at that price...............

toastie

This bit caught my eye from your post that joules quoted.

There's an old saw that I always keep in mind which goes something like this: the market often gives you a second chance, but invariably at a worse price if it's going to be a good trade. So if you see a second chance at a better price then beware - you'll probably regret it if you take it.

Saved me a lot that one

jon

 

[ZEN archer]

the market often gives you a second chance, but invariably at a worse price if it's going to be a good trade. So if you see a second chance at a better price then beware - you'll probably regret it if you take it.

Saved me a lot that one

jon

I've experienced it so many times - it took me some time to start using it in my trading.

 

[forker]

This cannot happen unless they are bypassing the risk software/models that monitor all trades...it would be picked up immediately so anytime you hear of fat finger trades, etc. it's mostly just news dramatisation...

Actually it isn't software that monitors trades, it's teams of people. All trades are logged on trade cards "same as it has always been" and then sent to one or more rule engines that create journals. These journals are further subject to fx adjustments and manual adjustments for incorrectly entered data. You see pnl reporting has to balance every day so that these teams can asses the risk and report pnl back to the business.

Sent from my HTC One X using Tapatalk 2

 

[NVP]

hi,

i'm pretty new to the trading game. but already i am becoming sick and tired of the so called 'gurus' who promise the world, but only seem to deliver expensive and dodgy systems, psycho-babble and generic information about cutting losses and running wins blah blah blah.

i would like to ask average traders with some trading time under their belts what your experiences have been in the game? is it worth it?

does anyone actually bring in decent profits on a regular basis or are the good times always wiped out by the bad in the long run?

does the hard work pay off in the end or is trading the equivalent to chasing the golden pot at the end of the rainbow?

'gurus' need not respond.

thanks!

if you ask average traders for advice you will get average responses

"Average" in this business doesnt cut it .....so dont trade and save yourself a lot of money and heartache...unless you are prepared to be better than average

N

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Not a bad guru:

Oliver Velez: Elephant Walk part 1 - London - YouTube
Oliver Velez: Elephant Walk part 2 - London - YouTube
Oliver Velez: Elephant Walk part 3 - London - YouTube
Oliver Velez: Elephant Walk part 4 - London - YouTube
Oliver Velez: Elephant Walk part 5 - London - YouTube